Cardinals By The Numbers: 05/27/2025
Cardinals By The Numbers: 05/27/2025
The Cardinals cooled off a little bit over the last week, but they’re still playing pretty well overall. They dropped 2 of 3 to the Tigers, which might be worrisome any other year, before sweeping the Diamondbacks. They also dropped the first game to Baltimore in their 3 game series thanks to Dylan Carlson.
Note: All stats and numbers are through Monday’s game; this we pretty much completed prior to Tuesday’s game against the Orioles.
| W | L | Pct |
| 30 | 24 | .556 |
That’s a 4-3 record since last week, with an increase in win percentage of .003. Since a majority of the week was at home, we did see an downtick in the Busch Stadium winning percentage (-.010) while the road dropped with the Baltimore loss (-.016).
| Home | Road | ||||
| W | L | Pct | W | L | Pct |
| 19 | 8 | .704 | 11 | 16 | .407 |
They split the 2 series they completed:
| W | L | T | Pct |
| 10 | 6 | 1 | .625 |
Their series win percentage dropped by .018 with the split; the numbers act weird because of the split series earlier in the year.
Their run differential continues to support the success:
| RA | RA | RD | pW | pL | pPct |
| 256 | 216 | 40 | 31 | 23 | .576 |
They scored 32 runs (4.57 runs per game) and allowed 30 (4.29 per game) in the last 7 games; the run differential increased by +2 and that’s mainly due to an 11-4 win over the Tigers. That increased their Pythagorean Win total by 4 wins and 3 losses (decreasing the pPct by .007); 31 wins put them 1 over where they currently are, but still within the standard deviation of 3. They continue to slightly underperform; it’s tied to losing close games and winning the blowouts.
| RS/G | RA/G | |
| Previous | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| Last Week | 4.57 | 4.29 |
| Season | 4.74 | 4.00 |
They struggled this past week compared to the last few. The pitching gave up a lot more runs, while the offense cooled off slightly; this caused the run scored per game for the season to drop .03 and runs allowed to increase by .04. These are minimal changes, but concerning if they continue.
| RS | Total | W | L | Pct | RA | Total | W | L | Pct |
| 10+ | 6 | 6 (+1) | 0 | 1.000 | 10+ | 2 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .000 |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | .250 |
| 6 | 7 | 6 (+1) | 1 | .857 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 5 | 10 | 4 (+1) | 6 (+3) | .400 |
| 4 | 10 | 4 (+2) | 6 (+1) | .400 | 4 | 6 | 3 (+1) | 3 | .500 |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 3 | 9 | 7 (+2) | 2 | .778 |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | .500 |
| 1 | 11 | 1 | 10 (+2) | .091 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1.000 |
This team’s pitching is critical to success; when the pitching is on, they are guaranteed a win. When the team allows 4 runs or less, they are 25-9. There are less patterns with the offense; most teams should have a winning record when scoring 7 runs, but the Cardinals are 1-2.
Now, run differential per game:
| RD | Total |
| 10 or more | 1 |
| 9 | 0 |
| 8 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 (+1) |
| 6 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 |
| 1 | 10 (+3) |
| 0 | 0 |
| -1 | 8 (+1) |
| -2 | 3 |
| -3 | 6 (+1) |
| -4 | 3 (+1) |
| -5 | 0 |
| -6 | 2 |
| -7 | 0 |
| -8 | 1 |
| -9 | 0 |
| -10 or more | 1 |
This week I’m adding playoff odds; the Cardinals currently have a 45.1% chance of making the playoff.
When they ended the series with the Diamondbacks, they had over a 50% chance of making the playoffs, something many people didn’t expect when the season began. Right now, they are just outside the Wild Card, but there is a lot of baseball to still be played.
Let’s switch to players, starting with OPS+:
| Rank | Player | OPS+ Last | OPS+ Now | Change |
| 1 | Ivan Herrera | 269 | 204 | -65 |
| 2 | Thomas Saggese | 142 | 143 | +1 |
| 3 | Brendan Donovan | 138 | 139 | +1 |
| 4 | Yohel Pozo | 133 | 115 | +18 |
| 5 | Masyn Winn (NR) | 116 | 112 | -4 |
Winn jumps into the top 5 after Lars Nootbaar (118 >106) dropped 2 spots (also passed by Alec Burleson). Herrera and Pozo both saw dramatic drops, but that’s to be expected; Herrera was going to regress being 169% above average while Pozo isn’t better than 33% average.
And the bottom of OPS+:
| Rank | Player | OPS+ Last | OPS+ Now | Change |
| 1 | Michael Siani (+1) | 55 | 55 | 0 |
| 2 | Jordan Walker (-1) | 48 | 57 | +9 |
| 3 | Nolan Gorman | 60 | 61 | +1 |
| 4 | Pedro Pages | 74 | 72 | -2 |
| 5 | Jose Barrero | 84 | 73 | -11 |
Walker drops out of the worst spot and might be headed in the right direction with a 9 point increase. Siani drops even though he’s not on the active roster; the league average has changed so the baseline is different than last week.
On the pitcher side, here’s ERA+:
| Rank | Player | ERA+ Last | ERA+ Now | Change |
| 1 | Steven Matz | 219 | 208 | -9 |
| 2 | Kyle Leahy | 413 | 193 | -220 |
| 3 | Matt Svanson | 161 | 183 | +22 |
| 4 | Matthew Liberatore (+1) | 142 | 151 | +9 |
| 5 | Phil Maton (NR) | Unsure | 147 | ?? |
Ryan Helsley drops out of the top 5 (150 > 119) as he’s been a little shaky recently. We also see Matz taking over the top spot; both he and Leahy regressed over the last 7 games. Matz’s regression isn’t huge, but Leahy’s was and should have been expected; there was no way he was going to continue to be 313% better than the average pitcher and he’s still very good.
The bottom 5 looks pretty close to the same:
| Rank | Player | ERA+ Last | ERA+ Now | Change |
| 1 | Ryan Fernandez | 38 | 37 | -1 |
| 2 | Riley O’Brien | 46 | 46 | 0 |
| 3 | Roddery Munoz | 58 | 57 | -1 |
| 4 | Chris Roycroft (+1) | 77 | 59 | -18 |
| 5 | Gordon Graceffo (-1) | 75 | 76 | +1 |
Roycroft and Graceffo were the only real changes on the list and they flipped spots. Roycroft has struggled this year and it’s trending in the wrong direction. Andre Pallante (98) is the only other pitcher below average, so that’s a positive sign for the staff as a whole.
Here’s the top bWAR:
| Rank | Player | WAR Last | WAR Now | Change |
| 1 | Brendan Donovan | 2.1 | 2.3 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Victor Scott II (+1) | 1.4 | 1.7 | +0.3 |
| 3 | Lars Nootbaar (-1) | 1.6 | 1.4 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Matthew Liberatore (+1) | 1.0 | 1.3 | +0.3 |
| 5 | Masyn Winn | 1.0 | 1.1 | +0.1 |
Leahy (1.2 > 0.8), Herrera (1.0 > 1.0), and Nolan Arenado (1.0 > 0.9) all dropped off the list. Nootbaar is in a rough patch as the lone player one the list moving backwards.
The bottom 5:
| Rank | Player | WAR Last | WAR Now | Change |
| 1 | Ryan Fernandez | -1.1 | -1.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Jordan Walker | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Chris Roycroft | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Gordon Graceffo (-1) | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Nolan Gorman (-2) | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
Siani (-0.3 > -0.2) and John King (-0.2 > -0.1) are headed in the right direction by dropping off the list, although Siani’s bWAR dropped because league average changed. Graceffo and Gorman both moved down the list, but not for lack of trying; Gorman’s bWAR didn’t change and Graceffo’s was worse by 0.1.
Walker is the concerning one; while his OPS+ did increase, his bWAR got slightly worse. I can’t say if it was defense (which is very possible), but he’s got to put if all together soon.
I’ll be back next Monday to see how things change over the rest of the week.
