Redbird Droppings: 8 Thoughts On The Roster
Redbird Droppings looks at what the Cardinals need to do to get better this season.
I think it’s safe to say no one saw the Cardinals being 7 games over .500 and a wild card contender coming to the halfway point of the season. It’s been a fun season so far and it’s the type of baseball Cardinals fans have missed the last few years.
That said, there are some major issue with this team and a few moves to fix them.
- Trade Lars Nootbaar: I know he just got back and has helped the offense; he’s got a 135 OPS+ and 0.4 bWAR in 41 at bats. But he’s also not part of the next championship club with only a year plus until free agency.
His fast start has done nothing but increase his trade value. Plus he’s not technically a rental, so the return would be nice. We’ve seen what Chaim Bloom can do on the trade market.
What would a trade mean to this team? Sure, another veteran would be gone, but his production could be replaced within the system; Joshua Baez is ready and is beating down the door to join the team.
Baez, the #5 prospect in the system at the beginning of the season, has 24 homers in 290 plate appearances; the Cardinals have 83 homers, ranking 17th in the MLB and 1 below the league average. His power would be a welcome addition. Not only that, he’s slashing .278/.345/.629, all of which are above the team average.
Baez might need an adjustment period once he’s promoted, but they’ve let JJ Wetherholt work through one and Jimmy Crooks is currently doing the same. It’s a rebuild season, so the team can afford to let him learn in the Majors. There are also concerns around his strikeouts; he’s currently striking out 30% of the time at Triple A. Teams has started to ignore strikeout rates if the power is there; a Nolan Gorman issue could develop, but Baez has shown better contact ability than Gorman has this season. - Hold off on trading Dustin May, for now: May might have the most trade value on the team, but it could be a PR nightmare trading the best starter on the team as they are still in playoff contention.
May has returned to form this year after knocking the rust off early in the season. He’s sitting at 15 consecutive shutout innings and is coming off the best start of his career. But he doesn’t figure into the long term plans unless they extend him; and it won’t be cheap with how he’s pitching. The days of the BFIB discount are long gone, and I don’t think he’ll give a discount because the team took a chance on him.
The other concern is his injury history. May’s 81.2 innings are the second most in his MLB career, behind what he threw last season. It’s going to be interesting to see how his arm holds up over the next few weeks.
If a team were to offer a bounty for the rental of May or the team is out of contention by the end of July, it becomes an easy decision. As mentioned already, Bloom has done a great job of getting talent for veterans. Adding a few more pieces for the future wouldn’t be the worst thing. - Time to readjust the rotation: While May has been really good, there have been some question marks behind him. Andre Pallante has been pretty good, and Michael McGreevy is what he is (solid surface stats with questionable peripherals); Kyle Leahy and Matthew Liberatore, on the other hand, have not been as good and could be potential upgrades.
Leahy would be a perfect candidate to go back to the bullpen; he was lights out last season and the bullpen needs more help than the rotation.
Liberatore is a little more of an enigma. He’s been really good and bad in both the rotation and the bullpen. While we could hope a move back to the bullpen would be a good thing, there’s no guarantee. I’m not ready to give up on him, but maybe keeping him in the rotation and moving to a 6-man might be the best thing. The more radical idea would be to… - Demote Liberatore: I’m not calling for a him to go to Memphis, but maybe give him the Gorman treatment, send him to Palm Beach and have him work with a specialist to recapture what he was doing last season.
For those that don’t know, Gorman isn’t with Memphis but is working with the coaching staff at an undetermined location. They are working on his swing mechanics and pitch recognition, something they should have done by sending him to Driveline in the off-season (a la Jordan Walker).
There are similar things that Liberatore can work on. His velocity is down across the board, losing a MPH on each of his pitches. He’s also seen a decline in spin rates on everything but his curve ball. As a result, his 4-seam is dropping in the zone more, his sinker isn’t sinking as much, and slider is hanging in the zone. His curve is actually getting more spin, but hitters can sit on it to wait for his fastballs. - Call up Hunter Dobbins and Brycen Mautz to start: Moving Leahy to the bullpen and switching to a 6-man rotation opens 2 spots if they don’t demote Liberatore; Dobbins and Mautz are both ready to step in. Or they use a piggyback system where one of Dobbins/Mautz starts, and the other comes in for bulk innings after the other has started (or they do this with Liberatore).
A 6-man rotation takes pressure off the other pitchers for the rest of the season. May has had injury problems in the past. Pallante historically has stretches of ineffectiveness. McGreevy and Leahy are both still pretty young.
The piggyback system could potentially lighten the load of the bullpen. If you could get 7-8 innings out of a Dobbins/Mautz/Liberatore piggyback, then you only need 1 other pitcher that game. If they were to add another young starter and do 2 piggybacks, then you only have to cover multiple innings 3 out of 5 games. Seattle is actively doing this until the All Star break; the on field results have been positive so far, but it has led to a little clubhouse friction (which could be avoided with proper communication to the players).
There are other options; Quinn Mathews is close to being ready. They could see if Gordon Graceffo could be stretched out. They could be aggressive and move someone like Jurrangelo Cijntje, Liam Doyle, or Mason Molina up from Springfield.
The Cardinals have more pitching depth than the last few years and there are options. - Cut Justin Bruihl loose: Bruihl has been a liability for most of the season and only has his roster spot because he’s the second lefty in the bullpen. There are options though.
Luis Gastelum has been very effective against lefties this season, with a .179 BAA. His changeup, which sits in the low-80s, has massive arm-side run and downward bite; it moves like a left-handed breaking ball from his low three-quarters delivery.
Lefty Pete Hansen has been as good against lefties as Gastelum has with a .188 BAA, but in the rotation. The issue with Hansen is righties have hit him harder, as his platoon splits are slightly a concern; righties have his .276 and strike out 8% less than lefties. They could add him to the 40-man when they DFA Bruihl. - Trade Riley O’Brien and JoJo Romero: Both pitchers have been good this season, but they have their issues.
Romero is a free agent after 2027, so they probably aren’t figuring he’ll be a long-term piece with the current core. Team will be looking for a reliable lefty that has some closing experience. Plus it’ll force Oli Marmol to use other pitchers occasionally.
O’Brien started hot, but has cooled off. The plus is his long-term club control; he’s a free agent after 2030. Normally that would figure into keeping him, but he’s a 31-year-old pitcher that’s just coming into his own; he’s the type of reliever that has a short shelf life in the Majors. The Cardinals would be better off capitalizing on his success now and adding a piece or 2.
If you trade these guys, you promote Gastelum and insert Soriano as the closer. - Don’t make rash trades: The Cardinals are being linked to some players on the trade market, like Reid Detmers, Freddy Peralta, and Michael Wacha for the rotation and Byron Buxton and Matt Chapman in the field.
They shouldn’t do it though. No matter how close they are to a wild card, they need to hold still and avoid rentals. Especially if they have to give up decent prospects. This isn’t overvaluing what they have; this is not mortgaging the future to speed up the process.
Trust the process. See what Blaze Jordan, Baez, and the other kids can do. See if Liberatore can fix his issues. See if you can extend Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, and Walker. There are move to make, but they are internal.
A lot can happen between now and the end of September, but it’s important to remember that next year is the goal and anything that happens this year is just an added bonus.
