Cardinals By The Numbers: 06/02/2025

Cardinals By The Numbers: 06/02/2025

The Cardinals come home with a split on the road last week; they took 2 of 3 from the Orioles while dropping 2 of 3 to the Rangers. Not only did they struggle against the Rangers, a lot of the progress they made leading up to the series disappeared with a -15 run differential

They were 3-2 since the last column, bringing their win percentage up .003; that’s the same increase last week over the previous week. Since the games were all on the road, there was a uptick in the road winning percentage (.031).

Another split of the series (like last week) did little to their overall series record:

Their series win percentage was down .014.

Their run differential, as already mentioned, took a hit with Texas.

Their run differential was -10 over the last 5 games; 17 runs scored (3.4 per game) and 27 runs allowed (5.4). The pitching didn’t look good against the Rangers, but the offense scored a run less per game than the previous week.

Because of that decrease, their pW/L record matches their actual W/L record. The team is playing at the appropriate level for their scoring tendencies.

This is the second week in a row that Runs Scored per game was down (5.40 > 4.57 > 3.40) and Runs Allowed were up (2.80 > 4.29 > 5.40); that’s a pretty big swing over 2 weeks and a major concern going forward. It also lowered Runs Scored Per game down from 4.74 to 4.63 (-.11) and Runs Allowed up from 4.00 to 4.12 (+.12).

The runs scored per game is still pretty random, expect for the fact that this past week they had 2 games where they only scored a run in each and lost both of those games. The pitching again followed the trend of allowing 4 runs or less and they win; both the losses were blowouts (11 and 8 runs).

Finally, run differential per game:

Even with the blowout losses to the Rangers, the Cardinals are in a better position for the playoffs than last week.

After Monday’s game to the Orioles, the Cardinals sat a 45.1% chance to make the post-season; they ended the week at 53.7%. They hit 59% twice during the week. They are trending the right way, but it’s going to be tough; the Wild Card will probably be more competitive than the division, so they need to make up that 3 game gap with the Cubs.

And now the top players, starting on the hitting side:

The top 5 looks the same, with only Winn and Pozo switching spots. Winn was the only player in the top 5 and 1 of 4 players to see an increase in OPS+; we saw this reflected in the RS/G being down for the whole team.

The bottom 5:

Note: Ryan Vilade is at -100 after 1 at bat with the team; I excluded him because he needs a little bit more playing time before being considered for the list.

This list was the same players, but with 2 sets of players flip flopping. Gorman and Walker were 2 of the 4 to see improvements on their OPS+ and this was the second week Walker moved in the right direction (+15 over that span); unfortunately, Walker was placed on the IL with a wrist injury, which is something that lingers and could impact his production going forward, especially in the power department.

As far as Barrero and Pages go, I’m split on their decline. Barrero I kind of expected; a utility player that’s bounced around rarely sticks around average level. Pages, on the other hand, hit better last year and I expected that he’d continue to take small steps forward as he got more playing time; while his defense is still good, his bat is going the wrong way. Is there a point where the team is better with Ivan Herrera catching and Alec Burleson as the DH? I guess that depends on Walker’s injury.

Switching to pitchers:

Matt Svanson (183 > 103) dropped off the list as he moved much closer to an average pitcher after early success when he was promoted; he was replaced by Helsley, who has pitched much better recently.

Matz and Leahy continue to pitch well, but their numbers are regressing; there was no way either pitcher could sustain being 100% or more better than average pitchers. Liberatore also dropped a little due to his rough start against the Rangers.

The bottom 5:

Graceffo and Roycroft were the only changes; they flip back to the rankings from 2 weeks ago. All of these pitchers are young and could rebound. It’s most disappointing seeing Graceffo take a step back after being the gem pitching prospect a few years ago; it shows how the farm system has dropped on on developing pitchers, something that was happening left and right 10-20 years ago.

Finally, we are hitting bWAR with the top 5:

Nootbaar moved up a spot to tie Scott for second on the team; many of the player’s bWAR went down this past week. Donovan is still worth over 2 wins and has a good shot of being an All Star this season; he won’t be ballot winner, but could be added to the team by the Manager of whatever gimmick they now use to fill out the rosters.

And the bottom:

Graceffo and Roycroft switched here as well. While Walker’s OPS+ was creeping in the right direction, it wasn’t having an impact yet in his bWAR. Between him and Gorman, they are cost the team almost a win. As I said last week, the leash is getting shorter for both of them.

The Cardinals have used 35 players this season, and they only have 10 with a negative bWAR (and another 4 at 0.0); that’s a solid percentage of players that are adding to the team.

I’ll be back next week with updated stats.