Cardinals By The Numbers: 05/19/2025
Cardinals By The Numbers: 05/19/2025
The Cardinals picked up 2 more series this past week, taking 2 of out 3 from both the Phillies and Royals. As opposed to the sweeps the previous week again the Pirates and Nationals, these 2 teams are in the early playoff picture.
| Wins | Losses | Pct |
| 26 | 21 | .553 |
The team went 3-2 since the last column and added .005 to their winning percentage. They also improved their road numbers:
| Home | Road | ||||
| Wins | Losses | Pct | Wins | Losses | Pct |
| 15 | 6 | .714 | 11 | 15 | .423 |
No change to the home numbers, but adding .042 (3-2) to the winning percentage is important. As a .500 road team, they’ll be in good playoff shape if they continue to win at home.
Now the series as a whole:
| Wins | Losses | Splits | Pct |
| 9 | 5 | 1 | .643 |
Taking 2 more series added .060 to their series winning percentage. Just a few weeks ago, they were below .500 on winning series; it’s been a great few weeks.
Their win differential continues to support their success:
| RS | RA | RD | pW | pL | pPct |
| 224 | 186 | +38 | 27 | 20 | .583 |
They scored 27 runs (5.4 runs per game) and allowed 14 (2.8 per game) in the last 5 games; the run differential increased by +13. That increased their Pythagorean Win total by 3 wins and 2 losses (increasing the pPct by .022); 27 wins put them 1 over where they currently are, but still within the standard deviation of 3. They continue to underperform; it’s tied to losing close games and winning the blowouts.
| RS/G | RA/G | |
| Previous | 4.69 | 4.10 |
| Last Week | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| Season | 4.77 | 3.96 |
Those numbers are headed in the right direction; RS is up 0.08 and RA is down 0.14.
Below is the record for RS/G and RA/G:
| RS | Total | W | L | Pct | RA | Total | W | L | Pct |
| 10+ | 5 | 5 (+2) | 0 | 1.000 | 10+ | 2 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .000 |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 7 | 4 | 1 (+1) | 3 | .000 |
| 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | .833 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | .500 |
| 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | .400 |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 3 | 7 | 5 (+1) | 2 | .667 |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 (+1) | 1.000 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 (+1) | .667 |
| 1 | 9 | 1 (+1) | 8 (+1) | .000 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 (+1) | 1.000 |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 0 | 6 | 6 (+1) | 0 | 1.000 |
As stated in the Pythagorean record, the team is getting a lot of runs. They had 2 games with 10 or more runs scored, then 3 games with 1-2 runs; they were 1-2 when they scored on the lower side. They also picked up their first 1-run scored win.
Pitching-wise, they have been doing pretty well; only 1 game in the last five had more than 3 runs. In the 4 games with 3 runs allowed or less, they were 2-2. They have to back their pitchers up in those games; .500 is not acceptable.
Finally, run differential per game:
| RD | Total |
| 10 or more | 1 |
| 9 | 0 |
| 8 | 1 |
| 7 | 5 (+2) |
| 6 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 |
| 1 | 7 (+1) |
| 0 | 0 |
| -1 | 7 (+2) |
| -2 | 3 |
| -3 | 5 |
| -4 | 2 |
| -5 | 0 |
| -6 | 2 |
| -7 | 0 |
| -8 | 1 |
| -9 | 0 |
| -10 or more | 1 |
Now, onto the players; first OPS+:
| Rank | Player | OPS+ Last | OPS+ Now | Change |
| 1 | Ivan Herrera | 273 | 269 | -4 |
| 2 | Thomas Saggese | 144 | 142 | -2 |
| 3 | Brendan Donovan | 131 | 138 | +7 |
| 4 | Yohel Pozo | 130 | 133 | +3 |
| 5 | Lars Nootbaar | 123 | 118 | -5 |
No change in the top 5; Lars is close to dropping below Masyn Winn (116). Saggese changed due to the league changing; these numbers will fluctuate during the season based on how the league is doing.
Here are the bottom 5:
| Rank | Player | OPS+ Last | OPS+ Now | Change |
| 1 | Jordan Walker | 41 | 48 | +7 |
| 2 | Michael Siani | 56 | 55 | -1 |
| 3 | Nolan Gorman | 61 | 60 | -1 |
| 4 | Pedro Pages | 81 | 74 | -7 |
| 5 | Jose Barrero | 85 | 84 | -1 |
Again, no change in the order. Walker is slowly trending in the right direction; his solo home run won the game Friday night against Kansas City. Pages continues to fall off; it’ll be interesting to see his usage going forward; both Pozo and Burleson are doing better than he is, so do they switch around catcher so Herrera and Pozo are seeing more time while slotting Burleson in as the DH?
I’m adding ERA+ this week; like OPS+ for hitters, this measures a pitcher’s effectiveness in comparison to the rest of the league. Over 100 is better than average; below is worse.
| Rank | Player | ERA+ | % Better Than League Average |
| 1 | Kyle Leahy | 413 | 313% |
| 2 | Steven Matz | 219 | 119% |
| 3 | Matt Svanson | 161 | 61% |
| 4 | Ryan Helsley | 150 | 50% |
| 5 | Matthew Liberatore | 142 | 42% |
Leahy has been unreal this season, but it’s natural for him to regress; there is no way he’s that much better than the rest of the league. I’m expecting some regression for Matz as well, but he’s been killing the long relief/spot starter role; unfortunately, his most value for the trade market comes from the rotation, so I’m curious to see what happens with him at the deadline.
Here’s the bottom:
| Rank | Player | ERA+ | % Worse Than League Average |
| 1 | Ryan Fernandez | 38 | 62% |
| 2 | Riley O’Brien | 46 | 54% |
| 3 | Roddery Munoz | 58 | 42% |
| 4 | Gordon Graceffo | 75 | 25% |
| 5 | Chris Roycroft | 77 | 23% |
These are all fringe bullpen arms except Graceffo; they’ve been shuttled between St. Louis and Memphis a few times. Graceffo is part of the future and he’s starting to come into his own after a rough start to the season; he’s even gotten a recent save. It’s a shame about Fernandez, because he was a key guy last season and looked to be an important part of the bullpen going forward; at least Leahy has picked up the slack.
Finally, here’s the top 5 according to bWAR:
| Rank | Player | WAR Last | WAR Now | Change |
| 1 | Brendan Donovan (+1) | 1.6 | 2.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | Lars Nootbaar (+1) | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Victor Scott II (-2) | 1.7 | 1.4 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Kyle Leahy (+1) | 1.1 | 1.2 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Masyn Winn (NR) Ivan Herrera (NR) Nolan Arenado (-1) Matthew Liberatore | 1.0 Unknown 1.3 Unknown | 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 | 0.0 Unknown -0.3 Unknown |
I only kept the top 5 numbers form least week, although I did remember where Winn was. Donovan had a killer 5 games to move him up half a win, while Scott slid down 2 spots. The bottom of the list is filling up as Winn and Herrera are heating up and Liberatore (and most of the rotation) is starting to hit his stride.
The bottom 5:
| Rank | Player | WAR Last | WAR Now | Change |
| 1 | Ryan Fernandez | -1.1 | -1.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Jordan Walker | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Nolan Gorman Gordon Graceffo Chris Roycroft Michael Siani | -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 Unknown | -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 | 0.0 +0.1 0.0 Unknown |
| 4 | John King | Unknown | -0.2 | Unknown |
The top of the list didn’t change, but we did have JoJo Romero (-0.1, down from -0.3) drop off it; he’s at least pitching better now. The bigger issue is the fact Walker and Gorman didn’t change, but it’s only over a span of 5 games (one of which was a big game for Walker); I’d be curious to see the WPA (win probability added) for their at bats.
I’ll be back next Monday to see how things change over the next 6 games.
