Monday Afternoon GM: All Star Letdown

Everything was looking up for the Cardinals before starting the second half. They were coming out of the break on a 2-game winning streak, going up against the Reds, and getting Steven Matz back from the IL. They had 5 All Stars and a guy in the Home Run Derby. And then they actually played the Reds…

The Reds should not take 2 out of 3 against the Cardinals. Everyone was rested and your 2 best starters were going. It’s hard to fault the offense; they scored 14 runs over the 3 games. They had some chances they missed on, but overall they scored runs. The issue was the pitching; Adam Wainwright‘s struggles against the Reds continued (7 earned in 5.1), Matz got hurt in a fairly strong start (more on that below), and Miles Mikolas didn’t look like an All Star. The pitching bright side was 3 earned allowed by the bullpen in 10.1 innings.

The All Star festivities were nice though. Albert Pujols knocked off Kyle Schwarber in the first round of the Home Run Derby (in controversial fashion); the event was fun, but I liked the original format better rather then having a time limit. Then we saw Paul Goldschmidt knock a ball out in his first at bat during the game. We also got Ryan Helsley hitting 103 out of the pen (twice). It was a fun event.

Up Next
The Cards head to Toronto for 2, then Washington D.C. for 3 over the weekend. The Cardinals are 1-1 against the Blue Jays, but they’ll be facing the team without Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Austin Romine, as none of them have received the Covid-19 vaccination; the team is promoting Cory Spangenberg, Conner Capel, and Ivan Herrera to replace them. Johan Oviedo won’t be making the trip either, as he has a passport issue.

The Cardinals haven’t faced the Nationals yet this season.

NL Central

The Brewers picked up 2 games last week, but they are going to be hitting a rough stretch soon; they’ll have 2-3 series against contenders, then 2-3 against the bottom half of the Central for the month of August and September.

The Cardinals are on pace for a 85-77 record; that’s probably outside of the Wild Card.

NL Wild Card

While the Cardinals aren’t on pace for a Wild Card spot, they do currently have one. They’d be in line for a play in game against the Padres.

Run Differential
The Cardinals have scored 445 runs this season and allowed 384, good for a differential of +61. That should put their record at 55-42, or 4 wins better then they currently are. They are on pace for a 92-70 record if their run differential were at this level to end the season. Their run differential is 4th in the NL and 6th in the MLB.

Cardinal News
Just as Matz gets back with the club and has a pretty good outing, he goes down with an MCL tear in his left knee; he’s been placed on the IL and James Naile was recalled. Without surgery, he’ll be out for 4-6 weeks; if he requires surgery, I’d expect his season to be over.

Yadier Molina is back in the states and starting baseball activities again. He’ll go on a rehab assignment in the next few weeks with the plan to be activated at the beginning of August. The Cardinals have struggled both with and without Yadi this season, so they could still look at an upgrade behind the plate.

Cardinal Rumors
The biggest rumors are around Nationals slugger Juan Soto; after Soto rejected a 15 year, $440M contract extension, the Nationals have made him available. The catch is they want a trade partner that will give up a lot (3-4 top prospects, 1-2 MLB ready players) and take on Patrick Corbin‘s remaining 2 year, $59.8M plus contract. That alone is a tall order; Corbin is a -1.5 WAR player this season and is coming off a -1.2 WAR season in 2021.

The most current rumor is the Nationals want a package of Jordan Walker (3B), Masyn Winn (SS), and one of Luken Baker (1B) or Connor Thomas (LHP). Other names mentioned have been Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Matthew Liberatore, and Michael McGreevy (RHP). Personally, I’d rather keep Walker and Winn; both are dynamic players and have future stars written on both. Without taking money for Corbin from the Nationals, I’d see about Baker, Thomas, O’Neill, Juan Yepez, and Gordon Graceffo.

I like Soto a lot, but the Cardinals won’t realistically be in contention to sign him after 2024 and I’d hate to trade away the future. Soto is a lot better then Marcell Ozuna, but I cringe watching Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen pitch knowing we didn’t get much out of Ozuna. I also think that trade might have the Cardinals gun shy on this deal. And really, hitting isn’t the Cardinals biggest needs; they need pitching.

The Cardinals are still tied to Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Noah Syndergaard, Frankie Montas, and Jose Quintana. I don’t see Castillo or Mahle coming from the Reds, and I wonder if the Pirates would deal Quintana to us. That leaves Syndergaard and Montas. If I’m the Cardinals, I see what it takes to get Montas and Sean Murphy. With the struggles the Cardinals have had this season, it would be nice to get a catcher that could allow Herrera to have more time in Memphis; Murphy is a free agent after the 2026 season. He currently has a 1.7 WAR and a 117 OPS+, as opposed to the -0.6 WAR total WAR between Molina, Andrew Knizner, Herrera, and Romine and their OPS+ of 48, 62, -10, and 3.

Finally, while there has been mentions of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels probably won’t move either. Trout’s name came up because Keith Law said that the Cardinals had the pieces to get him, not that the Angels have made him available. For Ohtani, the Angels have said they have no plan to move him.

Minor Leagues

• Memphis Redbirds: 51-42, 3rd Place
  • Up Next: vs Norfolk (44-49)
  • Johan Quezada (RHP) promoted from Springfield.
  • Jacob Bosiokovic (RHP) to IL.
• Springfield Cardinals: 44-46, 1st Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: vs Frisco (47-43)
  • Errol Robinson (SS) acquired from Sussex County Minors (Frontier League) and assigned to Springfield.
  • John Beller (RHP) activated from IL.
• Peoria Chiefs: 38-52, 5th Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: vs Fort Wayne (38-52)
  • Jacob Buchberger (3B) demoted from Springfield.
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 44-44, 1st (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: vs Jupiter (46-42)
• FCL Cardinals: 14-16, 4th Place
  • Up Next: @ FCL Astros A (13-16)
• DSL Cardinals: 19-18, 6th Place
  • Up Next: vs DSL Giants Orange (15-20)

Rehab Notes

• Harrison Bader (Memphis): 1 G, 3 AB, 1 R, 0 H, 1 BB, .000/.250/.000
• Dakota Hudson (Memphis): 1 G, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 1.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP

Former Cardinals

• Daniel Ponce deleon (RHP, Mariners) has been released by the Mariners. He was pitching in Triple A and struggled to a 7.95 ERA in 16 starts. He turned right around and signed a Minor League Deal with the Nationals a couple of days later.
• Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, Free Agent) has agreed to a major league deal with the Giants for a prorated $4.5M. He’ll start his Giants career on the IL as he’s rehabbing from a strained hamstring.
• Max Schrock (IF, Reds) was optioned to Triple A; he was filling in for Mike Moustakas while he was on the Covid IL.
• Magneuris Sierra (OF, Angels) was added to the Halo’s 40-man roster and activated; he was signed to a minor league deal by the Angels prior to the season after being let go by the Marlins.

The Cardinals Draft Report
The Cardinals completed their draft last week, and I got to say it was a little disappointing overall. The Cardinals have traditionally drafted safe: a large percentage of college players with a few high ceiling high school players mixed in. This draft, they went completely safe; the only high school player was Gavin Van Kempen with their final pick. The full draft tracker is here.

That said, they got some good players. Cooper Hjerpe was one of the top college arms available and he’s considered to be one of the first guys from this draft to make the Majors. Second rounder Brycen Mautz could be right behind him.

The Cardinals have signed 19 of their 20 picks (with Van Kempen being the exception) and used their full pool amount, and a little extra. Right now, they are being taxed 75% on $98,400 ($73,800); if they sign Van Kempen for anything over $125,000, that overage will also be taxed at 75%. If they sign him for more then $369,000, they will get hit for a 100% tax on the overage and lose future picks.

And since I didn’t write up a scouting report for Van Kempen, here’s a quick look. The kid is 6’6″ and weighs 215. He’s got a lows-90s fastball that’s touched 95; the pitch has a little movement on it. He will probably be closer to a triple digit thrower once he’s done filling out. He’s got a big breaking curve ball that sits in the upper 70s and generates swings and misses. He hasn’t really used a 3rd pitch in high school, but has the beginnings of a changeup that could become a solid 3rd pitch and a slider that has good horizontal movement. Needs to work on command and control. Cold weather pitcher. He’s committed to West Virginia, so they’ll probably have to use every remaining dollar to get him, and that might not be enough. More projection then polish at this point.

Overall, I give the Cardinals a C+ grade for the draft; it’s a safe draft with little upside. The Cardinals will get good players out of this, but no great players. Not one of these guys has the excitement around them of Walker, Winn, Tink Hence, or Joshua Baez.