Tuesday Afternoon GM: Splitsville

I’m a day late due to Memorial day, but content is the same (although I’ll look at yesterday’s game next week).

Could we say last week was a rough week? On paper, splitting a 2-game series with the Blue Jays and a 4-game series with the Brewers looks acceptable; in reality, it didn’t feel as good.

In the Blue Jays series, we get more of the Cardinals we know and love; a 7-3 win in game one, then an 8-1 loss in game 2. Offense one day, none the next. The loss comes to Jordan Hicks, who pitched 3 innings and allowed 4 runs; I think we can agree this experiment should be over (more later on this). Those 4 runs would be all the Jays need, but they got to the bullpen for 4 more. The bullpen is getting wore thin, especially when Hicks is limited to 3 innings per start.

I want to say the Brewers series was different, but not really. The Cardinals went 1-1 in close games, but then score 8 on Saturday and didn’t score on Sunday. Highlights include Matthew Liberatore pitching 5 strong innings (with 6 strikeouts) and Nolan Gorman hitting his first homer. Gorman is meeting expectations so far; he’s hitting well (.387/.472/.677), starting to show power (2 homers in the last 3 games), and striking out quite a bit (10 strikeouts in 36 plate appearances).

Up Next
We’ve already started the 3 game series with the Padres, then head to Chicago for 5 games in 4 days against the Cubs. The Cardinals are 1-0 against the Padres (yesterday’s win); they haven’t faced the Cubs yet.

NL Central Standings
Here’s a quick look at the NL Central…

Not much has changed, although the Reds are playing better. The Cardinals will have their chance to beat up the bottom feeders of the Central soon, which should help make up a few games on the Brewers, who have already been beating them up. If the Cardinals can continue to split with the Brewers and take advantage of the lower 3, they’ll be in good shape.

At this pace, the Cardinals are on track for a 91-71 record, which is about where they should be at the end of the season; my prediction was 90-72.

Run Differential
The Cardinals have scored 229 runs and allowed 186, for a run differential of +43; that would put the Cardinals at a 29-19 record, 2 wins better then they currently have. They are on pace for a 96-66 record for the season. Below is how their run differential has progressed this season.

Cardinal News
Just after last weeks column, the Cardinals announced Alex Reyes was getting a second opinion on his shoulder and that surgery was expected. That night, they confirmed he would indeed have surgery on his labrum. He essentially done for the season, although they are not ruling out a late season return; personally I don’t see it happening, and I believe his days as a Cardinal are finished.

Yadier Molina started the week on the bereavement list due to a surgery for his son; he was back with the team after a few games away. The team got a quick look at Ivan Herrera (for 1 game with no plate appearance).

“Starting pitcher” Hicks joined the IL with a forearm flexor injury; the injury seems vague that it could be a way to stash him on the IL without a real issue. The Hick/Rotation experiment could be done when he gets back, judging by comments by Hicks and manager Oli Marmol. Jake Woodford will take Hicks’ roster spot.

Steven Matz received a cortisone injection in his ailing shoulder after landing on the IL Monday morning; this will keep him out at least another week or 2. With a 3 week absence, he’ll probably need a rehab start or 2 before coming back, so I’m thinking we don’t see him until July. Liberatore took Matz’s rotation spot.

Dylan Carlson also joined the IL with a hamstring strain. We knew it was coming after he missed a few games. Lars Nootbaar joined the team in Carlson’s place.

Tyler O’Neill also received a cortisone injection in his shoulder after they found fluid built up; this also pushes back his rehab assignment. We could see him sooner then Matz (with the team giving him at bats at DH), but I anticipate a late June/early July return.

T.J. Zeuch was released this past week, after being DFAed the week before.

And the new Cardinal Hall of Famers are Matt Holliday, Julian Javier, and Charlie Comiskey, as announced Friday night. Holliday and Javier weren’t surprises, but Comiskey might be to some; while he’s know for his time owning the White Sox, he was on the very first Cardinals team (then the St. Louis Browns) and managed the team a few seasons later.

Cardinal Rumors
Dallas Keuchel (LHP, White Sox) was designated for assignment last week by the White Sox, and his name instantly popped up with the Cardinals. 2022 hasn’t been kind to the pitcher; he’s sporting a 7.88 ERA with 20 walks and 20 strikeouts. He’s probably an upgrade for the rotation at this point, much like adding Jon Lester and J.A. Happ were last season; he’ll eat innings which is huge for the team. He won’t be more then a 5th starter at this point, but for the MLB minimum salary, which is worth the risk.

The System
Here’s a quick glimpse of the system…

• Memphis Redbirds: 27-21
  • This Week: @ Charlotte (17-31)
• Springfield Cardinals: 19-26
  • This Week: vs Arkansas (22-23)
  • Top prospects Masyn Winn, Michael McGreevy, and Gordon Graceffo all moved up to Springfield this past week, joining Jordan Walker.
• Peoria Chiefs: 18-27
  • This Week: @ Wisconsin (28-17)
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 17-28
  • This Week: vs Jupiter (25-20

Former Cardinals

• Matt Carpenter (1B, Free Agent) didn’t spend much time on the free agent market; less then a week after being released from his minor league deal with the Rangers, the Yankees signed Marp to a MAJOR LEAGUE DEAL. While he did get a homer in his first game, that’s the only hit he’s had in 9 at bats.
• Lance Lynn (RHP, White Sox) is nearing a rehab assignment after throwing to live batters. He can rehab in the minors for up to 30 days, which is unlikely if he’s effective in his first few outings.
• The hits keep coming for Carlos Martinez (RHP, Free Agent). Just a week after being released by the Red Sox, Martinez was hit with an 80-game suspension for PEDs after testing positive for Ibutamoren. My guess is the Red Sox learned of the looming suspension and released the pitchers.
• Ryan Meisinger (RHP, Diamondbacks) received his walking papers from Triple A Reno; Meisinger signed a minor league deal with the D’backs during the off-season and struggled to a 6.14 ERA.
• Brad Miller (DH, Rangers) was placed on the IL with a right hip impingement; he left his game on Sunday with the issue.
• Luis Perdomo (RHP, Brewers) was placed on the IL for his elbow; the team doesn’t believe the issue is serious.
• Tommy Pham (OF, Reds) had a bizarre week. The outfielder had a pre-game confrontation with Joc Pederson of the Giants; it was later confirmed that Pham smacked Pederson in the face. Even later, we learned it either over was over Pederson making fun of the Padres, Pham’s former team, on a fantasy football text thread or a year old argument over IL placements in said fantasy football league. Pham was scratched from the game that day and ended up with a 3-game suspension.
• Nick Plummer (OF, Mets) was promoted from Triple A and made his MLB debut, homering in the 9th inning on Sunday night for his first hit. Letting Plummer walk might be a bigger mistake then trading Randy Arozarena or waiving Adolis Garcia.
• Donovan Solano (IF, Reds) was moved from the 10-day to 60-day IL; he’s been out with a hamstring injury since spring training. Apparently he’s frustrated with the organization on how they’ve handled the injury; they didn’t send him for an MRI when he initially got injured and finally relented after a setback in rehab. Since then, he’s had a PRP injection and still hasn’t begun baseball activities.
• Ildemaro Vargas (IF, Cubs) cleared waivers and was assigned to Triple A; he rejected the assignment and became a free agent. He was designated for assignment last week.
• Luke Weaver (RHP, Diamondbacks) is being transferred from the 15-day to 60-day IL for his elbow injury. He left his first appearance of the season with discomfort. He’s eligible to return June 7th, but the team is unsure if that will be possible.

More Hicks…
I don’t want to pile on Hicks; he was thrown in the rotation without proper buildup in Spring Training. As I’ve continually harped on, he should have been an opener; let him pitch through the lineup once, then have Woodford ready to eat a few innings. Instead, Hicks got thrown out there, injury history and all, in a situation where he would be seeing a huge jump in pitches per game. Last season, Hicks had 2 games out of 10 with more then 1 inning pitch, and his max pitches were 32 (in his longest outing of 1.2 innings); he averaged 20.2 pitches per game. This season, his first 2 appearances were in relief, where he threw 2 innings in each and averaged 31 pitches. He then had 7 starts; his lowest pitch total was 42 pitches for 2 innings, and the highest pitch total was 82 for 4 innings. He’s averaged 58 pitches per game this year; almost 3 times as many as last season.

Another issue is his velocity. The idea was as a starter, he would take a little off his fastball velocity so he could pitch longer and preserve his arm more. That really hasn’t been the case. Last season, his average sinker velocity was 99.2 MPH and slider was 84.2; this season the sinker is averaging 98.8 and slider is 83.7. I excluded his other pitches because his 4-seam only got thrown 7 times over the last 2 years, his changeup was used 33 times, and he stopped using a cutter this year. If the goal is to limit stress by throwing a little softer, he’s not doing it. It’s no wonder he’s already on the IL.

Rather then continue with the starter tag, he’ll probably move back to the bullpen; he’ll be a welcome addition to an over-used staff. Imagine having the back of the bullpen be Hicks, Ryan Helsley, Genesis Cabrera, and Giovanny Gallegos? On paper, that’s a hell of a backend. It also allows you to play matchups more knowing that you have 4 potential closers.