Let the Off-Season Begin

With the Braves beating the Astros in game 6 of the World Series, we are now set to start the MLB Hot Stove season. This should be an interesting one too; the Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to the expire, so there will be a lot riding on negotiations between the owners and players union.

Here are the important dates for the off-season and how each impacts the Cardinals.

Nov 3-7: Options must be exercised, opt outs decided. Free Agent dead period; can only sign with current team.
It’s pretty much a formality for the team to decline options on Carlos Martinez and Matt Carpenter; the team has pretty much said as much. I have a bad feeling that the team might try to make an low ball offer to bring back Carpenter, and it could be the only MLB offer he sees.

As for opt outs, Nolan Arenado is the only one with a decision to make. While he said back in September that he’s coming back, I’m wondering if the Mike Shildt firing would have an impact; I’m pretty sure the front office would have talked with him about the change and get his blessing, but then I also would have expected them to hang onto Shildt prior to a few weeks ago.

Nov 7: Qualifying offers due ($18.4M)
The Cardinals have the following free agents:

• Luis Garcia
• J.A. Happ
• Kwang Hyun Kim
• Wade LeBlanc
• Jon Lester
• T.J. McFarland
• Andrew Miller
• Justin Miller (outrighted from 40-man)

None of these players would quantify a QO. I’d also throw in that Carpenter and Martinez won’t either; Carpenter’s option is only $100k over the QO value and Martinez’s is less.

Nov 8: Free agency opens
I don’t expect a single team to be very active until after the new CBA is signed; I’ll have more on that below.

The Cardinals need help in the rotation and bullpen and could use an upgrade in the lineup.

While people are content with a Edmundo Sosa/Paul DeJong timeshare at short, they could definitely use an upgrade there. People will also point out that Tommy Edman could play short if Nolan Gorman is ready for second. Here’s the issue with this: there are a lot of “IFs” involved. We don’t know what will happen with Gorman. We have seen that the more Edman plays, the less effective he is. We don’t know if Sosa is an everyday player; he’s only been to the plate 339 times in his career, which is still a small sample size. DeJong has seen his OPS+ decrease each of the 5 seasons he’s been in the majors (121, 102, 99, 87, 86).

Look at it this way: first, third, and catcher are set and the outfield took a huge step forward. That leaves second and short as upgrades. Second base would be better off with combination of Edman and Sosa; both are cost controlled and Edman is better when his use is limited. Shortstop has a lot more options available on the market.

Nov 8-11: GM Meetings
Not much is done here; the December Winter Meetings are where deals typically get done.

Nov 17: Deadline to accept QO
This won’t matter since the Cardinals won’t make a QO.

Nov 19: Deadline for Rule V protection on 40-man
The following players are Rule V Eligible:

• Luken Baker, 1B, AAA
• Jacob Bosiokovic, RHP, AAA
• Conner Capel, OF, AAA
• Leandro Cedeno, OF, AA
• Adanson Cruz, OF, A-
• Joerlin de los Santos, OF, R
• Brendan Donovan, 3B, AAA
• Nick Dunn, 2B, AAA
• Edgar Escobar, RHP, AA
• Edgar Gonzalez, RHP, AA
• Francisco Hernandez, 2B, A+
• Connor Jones, RHP, AAA
• Evan Kruczynski, LHP, AAA
• Kyle Leahy, RHP, AA
• Irving Lopez, 3B, AAA
• Evan Mendoza, SS, AAA
• Luis Montano, OF, A-
• Jose Moreno, RHP, A+
• Freddy Pacheco, RHP, AAA
• Thomas Parsons, RHP, AAA
• Wilfredo Pereira, RHP, AA
• Delvin Perez, SS, AA
• Chase Pinder, OF, AA
• Nick Plummer, OF, AAA
• Domingo Robles, LHP, AA
• Griffin Roberts, RHP, AA
• Kramer Robertson, 2B, AAA
• Edgardo Rodriguez, C, A+
• Julio E. Rodriguez, C, AAA
• Luis Rodriguez, 1B, A-
• Ramon Santos, RHP, AAA
• Enmanuel Solano, RHP, AA
• Carlos Soto, C, AA
• Franklin Soto, 2B, A-
• Cory Thompson, RHP, AA
• Justin Toerner, OF, AAA
• Jhon Torres, OF, A+
• Jake Walsh, RHP, AAA
• Austin Warner, LHP, AAA
• Brady Whalen, 1B, A+
• Garrett Williams, LHP, AAA

I would consider these guys the potential players to join the 40 man:
Luken Baker, Brendan Donovan, Connor Jones, Thomas Parsons, Delvin Perez, Nick Plummer, Jake Walsh, Austin Warner

Of these, I’d say Baker, Perez, Plummer, and Walsh have the best shot. Guys like Jones, Parsons, and Warner are borderline and depend on the Cardinals reliever plans for 2022.

Dec 1: CBA expires, possibility of league-wide lockout of transactions
This is probably the most important one right now. No team will sign a big free agent until the CBA is renegotiated. We are also looking at a strong possibility of strike or lockout if things don’t get worked out. There is a lot of animosity between the owners and players union; there is also a lot of issues that need to be fixed in the game. Neither side is going to willingly give up much, so it could be a long wait for fans.

Dec 2: Deadline to tender contracts
Here are the arbitration eligible players and the salaries projected by MLB Trade Rumors:

• Harrison Bader – $3.7MM
• Jack Flaherty – $5.1MM
• Giovanny Gallegos – $2.8MM
• Jordan Hicks – $1.0MM
• Dakota Hudson – $1.7MM
• Tyler O’Neill – $3.5MM
• Alex Reyes – $3.3MM

Justin Miller would have been on the list, but he was outrighted and elected free agency.

Of the list, I see all of these guys getting tendered contracts.

The Cardinals could also non-tender a few players under team control, including: Austin Dean, Max Moroff, Johan Quezada, Angel Rondon, Jose Rondon, Brandon Waddell, T.J. Zeuch. Dean is expendable because of the emergence of Lars Nootbaar. Moroff and J. Rondon are repetitive; both are expendable if a shortstop is signed and Edman/Sosa are your utility players. Quezada, A. Rondon, Waddell, and Zeuch could all be replaced by free agents or younger players.

Dec 6-9: Winter Meeting
If the CBA is signed, this is where deals get made. That’s a big if though.

Dec 8: Rule V Draft
This should be postponed if the CBA is not completed. It’s hard to project what would happen if they do draft, since we don’t know what the 40-man will look like in a month.

That said, the Cardinals will gain a guy or 2 in the minor league portion and could loos a few guys, especially pitchers in the upper minors. They are low risk to stick with another club for a season, so Jones, Parsons, and Warner could be taken if not protected.

Dec 15: Ending of international signing period

Jan 14: Deadline for exchanging figure between teams and arbitration eligible players; players can still negotiate and sign after this date
I expect that the Cardinals will sign a majority of their arbitration eligible players; the hold out will be Flaherty. He’s been vocal about not liking the system and will go to arbitration every year.

Jan 15: Start of 2021-2022 international signing period (thru Dec 15)
More on this when it gets closer.

Feb 26: First Spring Training games
Hopefully.

Mar 31: Opening Day
Again, hopefully.

As we approach these dates, I’ll have more write ups on the events and what can be expected for each one.

Check out the Off-Season Salary Matrix.