2021 Cardinal Projections: Paul DeJong

Like I’ve done for the last few years, I’m working through my Cardinals projections for the upcoming season. The process this year is trickier; normally I take a 3 year average of the players stats for a portion of the projections, but this past season saw the 60 game season, so there was a little extra math.

My projections take into account the already mentioned 3 year average and similar players. On Baseball Reference, they list comparable players by career and by age; I factor in what those players did at the same age as the player I’m projecting. Again, if the comp was from 2020, I had to do a little math to equal it out to a 162 game season.

Next up is Paul DeJong.

Comps: Miguel Tejada, Khalil Greene, Matt Nokes, Jose Valentin, Carlos Santana, Marcus Semien, J.J. Hardy, Dansby Swanson*, Stephen Drew, Bill Hall, Todd Greene**, Willson Contreras, Stephen Vogt**, Don Pavletich, Tim Beckham, Wilin Rosario*, Aledmys Diaz, Addison Russell*, Jorge Polanco*

* Not 27 yet or did not play in Majors in age 27 year.
** September callup in age 27 year.

There are some decent names yet, and most hadn’t matured by age 27; there are also some guys that flamed out quickly. As the comps improved over time, they were able to hit for more average; based off this, we could see an increase in average this year for DeJong. The 19 homers is low, but DeJong has been streaky with his power in the past and it’s quite possible that 19 could happen; I’m expecting closer to 25 since he’ll be batting behind Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Like Harrison Bader‘s projection, there is a disappointing former Cardinal in DeJong’s comps. Luckily for DeJong, Greene’s age 27 season was before his steep decline (2 seasons before the trade 2 St. Louis). Greene’s age 27 season was pretty good, especially in that era of mid-tier hitting shortstops.

How do the projections match up with Fangraphs?

It seems that the other systems seem to favor DeJong a little more then mine; I don’t know if they take lineup into account, but that’s a fault of my system if so. I think he’ll hit better in general then their systems, but they feel he’ll show more power and run production; my gut agrees with them.

I think DeJong will have a bounce back year, but the Cardinals need to be careful with him; they’ve had an issue with overplaying him the last few years, causing him to be running on fumes when the season is heading down the stretch. Tommy Edman and/or Edmundo Sosa should get a little time at shortstop to keep him fresh.

Edman and Matt Carpenter are up next.

Other projections:
Nolan Arenado
Harrison Bader
Paul Goldschmidt
Yadier Molina

Don’t forget to check the Cardinal Salary Matrix and the Cardinal Prospect Tracker for updates.