Redbird Droppings: Cardinals Rumors 07/25

Redbird Droppings looks at the names that could be on the move.

With a little under a week until the MLB trade deadline (July 31, 5p CST), many are still wondering if the Cardinals are going to be buyers or sellers.

This runway season has been interesting to say the least; everyone expected a bad team, but instead we got an uneven team that dazzles at times and fizzles at others. The team is sitting at 53-51, in 4th place in the division, 9.0 games back of the first place Brewers; they are also 4.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot, with 2 teams between them and that spot.

At this point, the Cardinals should continue to do the “runway season” and trade off what they can. This will allow them to get longer looks at guys like Michael McGreevy, Matt Svanson, and Andre Granillo on the pitching side, while seeing if someone like Nathan Church is the real deal. It’ll also allow them to slot guys into different roles to see what sticks.

Here are the guys I think the team should consider trading, starting with the most likely.

Ryan Helsley – This was their best trade piece going into the season, and his stock has dropped a little. Lack of use and ineffectiveness at times has hurt his value. Since a team will only get a couple of months for him, the return will be significantly lower than had they traded him prior to the season. That said, he’s still got value and could bring a piece or 2.

The only way I wouldn’t trade him is Chaim Bloom is convinced he’s a piece in the future; if they could get him to sign an extension before the deadline, he won’t leave. Chances of that are slim, but he’s on the record as wanting to stay.

Phil Maton – Maton has been the stabilizing factor in the bullpen this season, but he was signed to be a trade deadline casualty when he inked a 1-year deal on a rebuilding team. Like Helsley, he’ll get a decent return, but not one that will blow away fans. Think 2 years ago when Mozeliak traded guys and got Adam Kloffenstein, Svanson, and Drew Rom; borderline guys who might turn into something.

Steven Matz – Matz was another guy that should have been traded in the winter and wasn’t. Fortunately, he’s been pretty good for the Cardinals and might have raised his trade-stock with his move to the bullpen. Again, he’s a rental and won’t fetch a ton of value.

Erick Fedde – He’s already been designated for assignment, so if he’s traded it’ll be for cash and/or a player to be named later. The way he’s pitched, he’s not even going to get a low A, roster depth guy. As mentioned a few times, they missed their opportunity to trade him in the winter and get a better return.

JoJo Romero – Romero is a good reliever with a couple of years of control and a few saves under his belt. It’s reason enough that the Cardinals could hang onto him, especially if Helsley is traded. His track record is up and down though, so he won’t get top of the line prospects; he’d be worth a mid-level prospect or 2. That alone might be worth it.

John King – King has some value, but probably isn’t a long term piece for Bloom. There are always teams looking for relievers at the deadline and they’d be willing to throw a low-level prospect on a league average lefty reliever.

Here are the guys that should be traded and won’t:

Miles Mikolas – He’s been just a tad bit better than Fedde; every time it appeared that he was on his last chance, he’d pitch well enough to get another start. The issue here is not that the Cardinals don’t want to move on; it’s that he won’t waive his no trade clause. This is another trade that would get cach/PTBNL and would be made to just clear a roster spot.

Nolan Arenado – This would be the best case scenario for the Cardinals, as his bat hasn’t rebounded and third base is a key position to the future of the team; if Arenado is moved, you can move Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, or Thomas Saggese there, opening up second for J.J. Wetherholt. And that doesn’t even go into the financial impact of dealing him.

But I don’t see if happening; between him being content here and multiple factors to get a deal done, it’s a long shot. There’s the no trade clause, the amount of money the Cardinals would need to send, the return the team gets, etc which complicates the deal.

Sonny Gray/Willson Contreras – Neither are going to waive their no trade clauses, so it’s not even worth talking about.

The interesting names:

Brendan Donovan – I don’t think the Cardinals should trade Donovan as he’s one of the leaders of this young core, he can play pretty much anywhere, and he’s got a couple more years of club control. BUT…if the Cardinals were to trade him, they’d get top 100 caliber prospects in return. He’s a key to the future, but could also bring back that elite prospect that they’ve had issues developing.

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Yankees and Astros are keeping an eye on him.

Lars Nootbaar – I think this one is more realistic, if he’s healthy enough. The Cardinals have other options in the outfield that are ready (Alec Burleson, Church, Matt Koperniak) along with a few guys that could be ready in the next calendar year (Chase Davis, Joshua Baez). If a team looks past his injury history, Noot could fetch a decent return; not what Donovan could bring but more than the pitching rentals that are sure to be traded.

Ivan Herrera – This has less of a chance than Donovan being traded, but he could intrigue teams looking for a catcher; especially one that can handle the bat. Trading Hererra opens the DH spot and give the team a little more flexibility, allowing Burleson, Gorman, Contreras, Jordan Walker, and (potentially) Luken Baker to get some reps at DH. Hererra would cost an arm and a leg to acquire, so the Cardinals could get quite the load; moreso than Donovan or Noot.

Pedro Pages/Yohel Pozo – The Cardinals have so much depth at catcher that they could afford to trade any of the 4 catchers on the roster and not worry about replacements; 3 of their top 5 prospects (not including the new draftees) are catchers. Moving Pages or Pozo now could allow Jimmy Crooks to get his feet wet for the rest of the season. Both catchers are cost controlled, but neither project to be anything more than backup really; they could fetch a good prospect or 2.

Nolan Gorman – This one might be there with Hererra, but hear me out. Gorman is blocking both Saggese and Wetherholt on the depth charts right now and there are questions of whether he will get back to his 2023 form; right now he’s a league average player with plus power. There are teams that think (and probably could) fix him. He’s cost controlled and has tons of promise. He could get a really good return and is instantly replaceable.

Jordan Walker – This could be seen as giving up on him at this point, but the runway is running out. His value is down, but, like Gorman, there are teams that believe they could fix him. I think the chances of this are low since the Cardinals keep giving him a chance and I see other teams lowballing the deals.

Off Limits:

J.J. Wetherholt – Last year’s first round draft pick is already at Memphis and could be up in the Majors once the Cardinals are past the point where he’d exhaust his rookie status (September). He can hit and field and looks like the impact player this team has been missing for a while. Luckily for him, he came into the system with Bloom already around or we could be looking at another Dylan Carlson/Walker situation where he stalls out.

Masyn Winn/Victor Scott II – They don’t appears to be “the guys” yet, but I still have faith that they take a step forward. I think Scott needs to adapt to a full season of MLB ball, while Winn has been playing with a sore knee. I’m not ready to give up on either.

Everyone else could be had for the right price. Guys like Matthew Liberatore and McGreevy should be long term fixtures, but we’ve seen desperate teams make bad moves to get into the post-season.

Whatever happens, the Cardinals need to put themselves in a better position for next season. Trading a lot of these guys will help with that.

Starting on Monday, I’ll be listing the actual trade rumors. Until then, be sure to check out the MLB Draft Tracker; the Cardinals have signed all of their draft picks and, like each year, got hit for the first level penalty for going over their pool amount by less than 5%.