The Cardinals Should Look At Dinelson Lamet
Of the most shocking moves of the trade deadline was the Brewers dealing Josh Hader to the Padres for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Robert Gasser, and Esteury Ruiz. As I’ve said elsewhere, it makes good baseball sense; they traded a closer for another closer with the same amount of team control, a young pitcher, and 2 prospects. Then the Brewers surprised the baseball world again by designating Lamet for assignment on Wednesday.
Brewers’ President of Baseball Operations David Stearns commented on the situation by saying that Lamet was added to the deal to “help balance out the deal.” When explaining the DFA, he said “As subsequent transactions played out, the roster fit became a little tougher. We are hopeful we will be able to keep him in our system.”
Lamet will not pass through waivers; he probably won’t even make it to the Cardinals. He’s a young player and under team control until after 2024. He’s going to appeal to rebuilding clubs and contenders.
Lamet was a mildly regarded prospect coming up (John Sickels had him 8th in the Padres system in 2017) with solid numbers and potential. He started 21 games in 2017 and did OK as a rookie. He missed 2018 and improved in 2019. Then he broke out in 2020, where he finished 4th in Cy Young voting. While Lamet was great in 2020, he’s struggled since then. In 2020, he had a 2.09 ERA, 2.48 FIP, and 0.86 WHIP in 69.0 innings. Since then, he has a 5.46 ERA, 4.17 FIP, and 1.60 WHIP in 59.1 innings.
Part of his problem is injuries. He missed the end of 2020 with a bicep issue. Then in 2021 he miss time for bicep and elbow issues. He hasn’t been the same since. And it’s shown in his slider. He was demoted by the Padres earlier this year, and he spent a week working on the slider with the Major League staff prior to going down. Through video, he found some differences in his mechanics and grip between 2020 and then.
Those differences show in the Statcast data. In 2020, his slider was worth -18 runs and had a hard hit rate of 27.8%, a slugging percentage against of .120, and a K% of 51.4%. Those numbers jumped to -8 runs and 31.6%, .297, and 41.5% in 2021 and to +3 runs and 47.1%, .483, and 43.8% in 2022. That -18 run value was the best in baseball of all pitchers and all pitches; the +3 ranks 1668 for 2022.
Part of the issue with his slider is the movement. The vertical movement went from 0.2 in 2020 to -2.4 in 2021 to -4.2 in 2022. Fangraphs looked at vertical movement and found that vertical movement between -1.4 and 1.5 had a RV/100 (Run Value per 100 pitches) of -.31. When the vertical movement is less then -1.4, RV/100 drops to -.10. Lamet’s RV/100 jumps from -3.2 in 2020 to 1.8 in 2022; while drastic, it confirms that his vertical movement is an issue.
His horizontal movement is also a problem; it changed from 0.5 in 2020 to -3.7 in 2021 to -6.1 in 2022. While the difference in the horizontal movement is significant, I don’t know if it’s really an issue by it self. Had his horizontal movement increased while the vertical decreased, the pitch wouldn’t have dropped off so quickly; since both dropped, the effectiveness of the pitch went away.
Flat out, a good slider is hard to hit, and if Lamet can find his slider, he’ll be a good pitcher again.
The Cardinals can help with that. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to work with each other; back in 2014, newly acquired Justin Masterson worked with Shelby Miller on his grip, which made Miller unhittable late into that season. Andy Benes picked up a split-finger from Chuck Finley in 2002 that save his career.
If the Cardinals could have Mike Maddux work with Lament, it might help. They could have him talk with Andre Pallante, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, or Miles Mikolas; all have sliders with run values of -3 or better.
If Lamet could reinvent his slider, he could be the perfect back of the rotation starter and a guy that could be relied on for a couple of years, which is what the Cardinals were looking for at the trade deadline.
