What Will Nolan Gorman’s Impact Be When He Debuts?

For the last few weeks, Cardinal fans have been clamoring for Nolan Gorman to be promoted; rejoice, as the Cardinals have announced it’s happening. Gorman is batting .308/.367/.677 with 15 homers as of his promotion. Those are great numbers for a 22 year old in Triple A. The flip side is his 34% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate; both need to be better for the MLB level.

Right now, Gorman is a top prospect in the game and we are seeing why. According to MLB.com, he’s the 31st best prospect in the game; he’s ranked 17 according to Keith Law, 18 by ESPN, and 34 by Baseball America.

If you ask a Cardinal fan, you’d think he’ll solve the offensive woes, win a gold glove at second base, and possibly solve world hunger. He’s good, but there will be issues and an adjustment period. Here are the last 5 top 50 hitting prospects the Cardinals have had (according to MLB) and how they faired when they were promoted.

Dylan Carlson (2020, #14) – Carlson shot up prospect lists after an impressive minor league season in 2019. When he made his debut in 2020, he struggled; much like Gorman this year, the team was having issues hitting at the time and people considered Carlson the cure. He ended 2020 with a slash line of .200/.252/.364 in 35 games (119 plate appearances); that equated to a 68 OPS+ and 0.1 bWAR. What those numbers don’t show was he was even worse in his initial call up. From his August 15 debut to his demotion September 5th, he hit .162/.215/.243; after he was recalled on September 18, he hit .278/.325/.611.

It’s also worth noting that in 2019, a season split between Springfield and Memphis, Carlson struck out 21% of the time and walked in 10% of his at bats; in 2020 at the majors, they went to 29% for strikeouts and 7% for walks. Both improved in 2021 to 25% and 9% respectively.

Tyler O’Neill (2017, #36) – O’Neill was a top 100 prospect before being traded to the Cardinals, but many analysts were down on him at the time of the trade for Marco Gonzales. He made his debut in 2018 and put up a respectable .254/.303/.500 line, good for a 115 OPS+ and a 1.2 bWAR, over 142 plate appearances. His next 2 partial seasons were not as good; in 2019 he had a line of .262/.311/.411 (151 PA, 90 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR) and .173/.261/.360 (157 PA, 70 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR because of defense) in 2020. He didn’t breakout until his first full season of 2021.

Like Carlson, O’Neill saw his strikeout and walk numbers take a hit with his MLB promotion. In 2017, he struck out in 27% of his plate appearances and walked in 10%. When he got to the majors in 2018, those numbers went to 40% and 5%; they improved to 35% and 7% in 2019.

Oscar Taveras (2013, #3; 2014, #3) – Unfortunately, we never got to see this one play out, but we see the start of the same trend. Taveras Taveras hit .239/.278/.312 with 66 OPS+ and -1.2 bWAR in 248 plate appearances during his 2014 rookie season. He passed away after the season and we never got to see the improvement in his first full season.

Taveras had a less drastic difference in his strikeout and walk numbers. His 2014 was split pretty evenly between Memphis (262 PA) and St. Louis (248 PA). In Memphis, he struck out in 12% of his plate appearances and walked in 7%; that changed to 15% and 5% when he was promoted.

Brett Wallace (2009, #42; 2010, #16) – Wallace was interesting case. The first round draft pick was traded at the deadline in 2009 for Matt Holliday; he didn’t debut until 2010 with the Astros, after being traded 2 more times. All of these trades would come off as a red flag for his career; the A’s and Blue Jays didn’t see enough in him to keep him. His 2010 debut saw a slash line of .222/.296/.319, which equated to a 69 OPS+ and -0.1 bWAR, in 159 plate appearances. He did improve a little as he played more, but never saw more then 379 plate appearances in a season.

Wallace has a minor league strikeout rate of 19% in 2009, while walking 8% of the time. When he got to the majors, those numbers went to 31% and 5% respectively. Eventually the walk rate would return to 8% for his career, but he never got past the strikeouts.

Colby Rasmus (2008, #7; 2009, #10) – Rasmus was considered a sure thing to many prospect trackers, but Tony LaRussa didn’t feel that way. Rasmus is probably the exception of these 5. He did fairly well in 2009, slashing .251/.307/.407 with an 89 OPS+ and a 1.9 bWAR; while the OPS+ says he was 11% worse then a league average hitter, he did play a good centerfield which increased his value. It was his second season where he really started to take off; he slashed .276/.361/.498 with a 132 OPS+ and 3.2 bWAR. Unfortunately his relationship with his manager was rocky and led him to being traded away; the plus side was that trade pretty much helped the Cardinals win their pennant in 2011.

He was also an exception with strikeouts. His K rate went from 19% in 2008, his last season in the minors, to 18% in 2009, his first in the majors. The walk rate plummeted though, from 13% in 2008 to 7% in 2009. What’s interesting here is his strikeout numbers got much worse the longer he played; he ended up with a K% of 27%.

I believe these 5 players are pretty good comps for the start of Gorman’s career; all were expected to be big parts of the Cardinals future. Carlson and O’Neill still have a chance to prove their worth, while Rasmus indirectly brought the Cardinals a championship. Wallace was a bust in the long run, but again brought an important piece to the Cardinals. Taveras will be an unanswered question. I think the issue for the initial struggles is the high profile of these guys as prospects. Teams were scouting them more then lower level prospects. It why a guy like Carlson struggles in his debut while Juan Yepez hits almost .500 in his first week. The guys that can make the adjustments are the ones that become major league regulars or better

I think Gorman will be a good player, but we’re going to see a period where he’s striking out in half of his plate appearances. We’ll have a period where he’ll be moved permanently to DH until he can get more practice or minor league time at second. If the team can get something out of the Brendan Donovan/Edmundo Sosa tandem, then Gorman should be able to hit righties better then Corey Dickerson. But getting at bats will cost them from guys like Juan Yepez, who has done nothing but hit; I do think Yepez will be figured out at some point, but until then, you should really ride the hot hand.