Projecting Adam Wainwright
If trading for Paul Goldschmidt was the biggest surprise of the off-season, signing Adam Wainwright the way it happened would probably be second. Wainwright’s contract was announced before free agency began, but then was put on hold until after it started. He received a low base salary and incentives for starting, closing, and middle relief.
After the past season, many fans were left asking if there was anything left in the tank for Wainwright. There looks to be a little.
My system is stating a 8-5 record on the season in 19 games, 17 of which are starts. He’ll get to 104.0 innings. Those aren’t huge number, especially from a guy that struggled to stay healthy over the last few seasons.
The rate numbers aren’t that great either. He’s probject to have a 4.41 ERA and 4.22 FIP. His WHIP is sitting high at 1.41. He’ll give up almost a hit per inning, almost 3 walks and 1 homer per 9, and has a K/9 around 6. The HR/9 number is solid, the rest are just OK or worse.
To top it off, the system has him at 0.7 WAR; my WAR calculations are typically low, but I have a feeling that if these stats are correct, so will his WAR.
Here are the full numbers:
| Record | W Pct | G | GS | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | .615 | 19 | 17 | 104.0 |
| ERA | FIP | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.41 | 4.22 | 1.41 | 9.87 | 0.95 | 2.86 | 6.06 |
| H | R | ER | BB | K | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 55 | 51 | 33 | 70 | 0.7 |
With these types of numbers, it’s easy to see the team will probably shift to the loser of the Dakota Hudson/John Gant competition for the 5th rotation spot, or see what Austin Gomber, Daniel Poncedeleon, or Ryan Helsley could do. I’m expecting one of these guys to get a shot because of injury, then not let it go.
I’ll try to have another hitter and pitcher done for tomorrow.
Others in the series:
Dexter Fowler
Paul Goldschmidt
