Monday Afternoon GM: A Disappointing Positive

The Cardinals had a big week that came out better then it should have; 8 games in 7 days with a 5-3 record. The 3-2 against the Cubs should have been better, and the 2-1 against the red hot Braves was completely lucky.

The Cardinals had mixed results from the Cubs; it would have been a better stop at Wrigley if they could have taken 4 of the 5. They had 2 big scoring outputs, but scored 2 runs in the remaining 3 games. The Cubs only motivation right now is to play spoiler, and taking 2 of 5 might not seem very spoilerish, but at the end of the season an extra games or 2 against the Cubs could be the difference between the division and the wild card.

It was the opposite against the Braves; they took 2 out of 3, but it really could have been 0 out of 3. The Cardinals won on Saturday with a walk off walk; if any pitcher other then Kensley Jansen was pitching, it might have been a different finish. Then on Sunday, a pretty good Adam Wainwright start is spoiled by 3-run homer allowed by Ryan Helsley (2 runs charged to Waino) before the late inning hitting started again for a 6-3 win. That said, the Cardinals kept fighting against the Braves and shut down a little of the talk that they can’t beat a contender.

Up Next
The Cards go back on the road for a short 3-game series in Cincinnati, then come home for 3 against the Cubs. The Cardinals are 7-4 against the Reds this year; they are 10-6 against Chicago. Ideally, you’d like to see 4-2 for the week.

NL Central

The Cards were able to pick up a game on the Brewers, who were completely collapsing; it appears the team and the fans have lost faith in the front office after the Josh Hader trade. Hader has been pretty bad since being traded, so maybe the move wasn’t so bad (at least on the field).

The Cardinals are currently on pace for a 94-68 record, which actually moved them up a win. This is good enough to win the division. ESPN has upped their playoff percentage from 94.9% to 97.7%.

NL Wild Card
While the Cardinals have pulled out of the wild card race, it’s still worth watching because the Cardinals would play the 3rd wild card in the first round of the playoffs.

The Phillies and the Padres flip flopped last week, while the Brewers hung in at 1.5 games back (same as last week). The Cardinals are 3-0 against the Padres this year, with another series still to come. The Giants are pretty much out of it and will drop off in the next few weeks; ESPN is giving them an 0.8% chance of making the post season.

Run Differential
The Cardinals have scored 625 runs and allowed 508, good for a run differential of +117; based off this, they should be 76-52, or 2 games better then their actual record. They are on pace for a 96-66 records if their record reflected their run differential. The teams run differential is 4th in the NL and 6th in baseball.

After a +33 jump the previous week, last week only saw the Cardinals add +5 runs to their differential. They have the 3rd most runs scored in the NL and the 4 least runs allowed.

Cardinal News
Rejoice, the prodigal son has returned; the Cardinals have re-signed T.J. McFarland to a minor league deal. While insignificant, it’s worth noting that the Cardinals were working with McFarland to get back to the pitcher they picked up in 2021 and now he can do it at Memphis. He hasn’t found it yet, since he’s sporting an 8.10 ERA in 3.1 innings and blown a save since re-signing.

Jack Flaherty is nearing a return, but he’ll have 1 more rehab start before returning. Flaherty has gotten better in each start (see the numbers below) and will be a welcome addition to the rotation, if he’s truly healthy. A healthy Flaherty is better then Dakota Hudson and possibly Jose Quintana.

Another starter is returning soon; Steven Matz could be ready to come back soon, but he’ll return as reliever. Matz, who sprained his left MCL, will throw 2 more bullpen sessions before going on a rehab assignment. The team wants him to ramp up his velocity, which as at 89 MPH in his last bullpen.

Other quick transactions during the week: Helsley was transferred to and returned from the restricted list (he was spending time with his newborn) and Packy Naughton was sent down. Matthew Liberatore was up and down as the 27th man in last week’s double header. Juan Yepez got a quick callup to replace Nolan Arenado; Arenado also welcomed a child into the world. The most surprising move was the demotion of Genesis Cabrera and the return of Zack Thompson; Cabrera was a reliable reliever last season and at the start of this one, but I believe he’s been overworked this season and has a case of dead arm.

Cardinal Rumors
We aren’t even into September yet, but off-season rumors are starting; the Cardinals are interested in Willson Contreras as the heir to Yadier Molina. Apparently the Cardinals checked in on the catcher at the trade deadline, but I guarantee the Cubs asked for the moon to trade him within the division. The goes with the idea that the team doesn’t have faith in Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera is not considered ready. I’m expecting the team will also check on Sean Murphy in Oakland.

Minor Leagues

• Memphis Redbirds: 63-59, 4th Place
  • Up Next: @ Nashville Sounds (74-48)
  • Kyle Ryan (LHP) released.
• Springfield Cardinals: 58-62, 2nd Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: vs Wichita Wind Surge (67-52)
• Peoria Chiefs: 51-69, 5th Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: vs Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (61-58)
  • Edgar Manzo (RHP) off IL.
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 60-57, 1st Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: vs Daytona Tortugas (48-69)
  • D.J. Carpenter (RHP), Tanner Jacobson (RHP) promoted from FCL.
• FCL Cardinals: 25-29, 5th Place
  • Omar Sanchez (LHP), Ludwin Jimenez (RHP) demoted from Palm Beach.
• DSL Cardinals: 33-26, 4th Place

The MLBPA might start to represent the minor league players as their collective bargaining negotiators. According to multiple reports, the MLBPA sent out voting cards to minor leaguers so they could designate the MLBPA as their collective bargaining representatives. If this were to happen, minor league players could possibly see better conditions for their lives. While Major League teams have stepped up to help with housing, meals, and game facilities, the players still do not make very much money. MLB is exempt from minimum wage laws, so some players only make $2000 a season. The downside is the owners will pass potential pay increases onto the fans and increase ticket prices at minor league stadiums; we’ve seen what happens to bloated MLB contracts for fans.

Rehab Assignments

• Jack Flaherty (RHP, Memphis): 1 G, 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
  • Totals (2 @ Memphis, 2 @ Springfield): 4 G, 13.1 IP, 14 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 16 K

Former Cardinals

• Jose Godoy (C, Pirates) has been outrighted to Triple A; he was previously designated for assignment and no other team claimed him. He’ll wait patiently for another chance to get back to the Majors.
• Kevin Herget (RHP, Rays) won’t get the happy ending; he’s been designated for assignment by the Rays before getting into an MLB game. The
• Jason Heyward (OF, Cubs) has been moved to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man roster spot. He’s done for the season and the Cubs have already announced he won’t be back next year.
• Yairo Munoz (IF, Phillies) was optioned to Triple A to make room for Bryce Harper‘s return.
• Stephen Piscotty (OF, Free Agent) signed a minor league deal with the Reds. He was cut loose by the Athletics after a fairly unproductive season.
• Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, Brewers) is out for the rest of the year. The Brewer’s traded for the reliever at the trade deadline without him throwing an MLB pitch this season; he missed all of 2021 with thoracic outlet syndrome and will finish this year with another shoulder problem.
• Chasen Shreve (LHP, Free Agent) signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. He started the season across town with the Mets, but was cut loose after posting a 6.49 ERA in 26.1 IP.

Cardinals vs the Contenders
The Cardinals have been know to either play to their competition or to knock around the bad guys in the last few years; this year is the knocking around the bad guys kind of year. They can beat up on the Cubs, Pirates and Reds pretty well, but struggle against the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers. That’s a big concern for the post-season; there won’t be bad teams.

How do the Cardinal stack up against above .500 teams?

The Cardinals have a .658 winning percentage against losing teams. The Cardinals have 4 against the Brewers, 3 against the Padres, and 3 against the Dodgers still on the schedule; they have 8 with the Reds, 3 with the Cubs, 4 with the Nationals, and 9 with the Pirates.

Their play against good teams is not going to cut it in October. As of today, the Cardinals will face the Padres; based off percentages, they have a good shot to win. Granted, they have another series with the Padres, but the team has been trending downward since the trade deadline and the last time the Cardinals played them.

The Phillies would be tougher, since the Cardinals have a losing record against them. Same with the Braves, although the Cardinals have a little momentum against them.

The Cardinals are within striking distance of the Mets and getting a first round bye; that would be helpful, but it wouldn’t be a difference maker. Either way, a series with the Mets is likely (the winner of NL3 vs NL6/WC3 would face NL2), which is not good for the Cardinals. It would then be expected that the Dodgers would be the opponent in the NLCS, which, again, isn’t a great matchup.