Projecting Randal Grichuk and Kolten Wong

After working out the numbers for Dexter Fowler earlier in the week, I’ve moved on to 2 youngers players for the Cardinals – outfielder Randal Grichuk and second baseman Kolten Wong. Both players are seen as keys to the future and both have a lot to prove after mid-season demotions last season.

We’ll look at Grichuk first. The outfielder will be moving from center to left this season and the team is hoping that he’ll be a middle of the order bat. My system sees him improving this year, but not adding a lot more value than last season.

His batting line looks more improved at .260/.326/.494 according to my system. The issue is the amount of games it’s projecting – 118. Either it thinks he’s going to be injured or he’ll see another demotion. In those 118 games, he’ll hit 21 homers, score 61 runs and drive in 62. He’ll have a WAR of 2.6.

Let’s compare those to Fangraphs’ Depth Charts and Steamer. Both DC and Steamer show a slash line of .247/.296/.462. DC has 24 homers to Steamers 22. DC has 60 runs and 73 RBIs while Steamers has 56 and 68. They have WARs of 1.8 for DC and 1.6 for Steamer. The comparisons looks as follows:

Projections G R H HR RBI SB CS Avg OBP SLG WAR
Nyrdcast 118 61 104 21 62 7 2 .260 .326 .494 2.6
Depth Charts 125 60 120 24 73 6 4 .247 .296 .462 1.8
Steamer 122 56 112 22 68 6 4 .247 .296 .462 1.8

There really isn’t too much of a difference in any of the ratings. The main thing is mine sees Grichuk getting a few more walks (37) and a few less strikeouts (110) than the other two (30 and 139 for DC; 28 and 130 for Steamer).

Wong’s projections are along the same lines. I have him down for 121 games; either Mike Matheny won’t listen to John Mozeliak’s declaration that Wong is the everyday second baseman or the team finally loses faith in him. He’s projected to slash .253/.316/.382 with 9 homers. He’ll score 49 times and drive in 42, while swiping 10 bags in 14 chances; he’ll be worth 1.5 WAR.

DC and Steamer also have him in a low game total – 108 for DC and 105 for Steamer. Their slash lines are .264/.329/.404 for both. Both systems have him hitting 10 homers and scoring runs in the high 40s. They both also have him at a 1.6 WAR.

The overall comparison has him:

Projections G R H HR RBI SB CS Avg OBP SLG WAR
Nyrdcast 121 49 102 9 42 10 4 .253 .316 .382 1.5
Depth Chart 108 49 108 10 47 9 4 .264 .329 .404 1.6
Steamer 105 47 102 10 45 9 4 .264 .329 .404 1.6

Overall, the numbers are a little disappointing for both players. As fans, we’re hoping that both players are able to take that step forward that they are capable of doing; these numbers show it might not happen this season.

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