Redbird Droppings: Deadline Dreading

Redbird Droppings looks at the future of the Cardinals roster

The trade deadline is Monday, August 3rd, and I expect the Cardinals to be active. I’m hoping as sellers because this team is close, but they won’t compete in the post season with how the roster is currently constructed.

Chaim Bloom has had a plan in place for this team, and I don’t want to see him move up timelines because they are closer to competing than expected. They are fighting for a wild card spot in a weak wild card race; they won’t be able to beat the Dodgers, Phillies, or Brewers in a series in October. They are struggling to keep in the race as it stands.

I’m looking at all 40-man roster players and breaking them into 5 categories based off their future with the team.

Please take them

• Matt Svanson: I’ve seen enough; if you can get a bag of balls, great. This is more likely a DFA in the near future. It’s a shame though because he looked good last year and I thought he’d be a key fixture in the bullpen this year.

Thanks for your service, or guys who should be dealt no questions asked

• Lars Nootbaar: It would have happened in the winter had he been healthy, but Noot isn’t part of the future of this team and they could get a decent prospect or 2 here. Add in that he’s blocking Joshua Baez, and it’s really the easiest one on this list.
• Dustin May: We all knew May was a rental and he’s looked good at time. They maybe should have dealt him a few weeks ago, but the market wasn’t really there yet. They got Blaze Jordan for Steven Matz a few years ago, so I think a similar deal could work.
• JoJo Romero: It should have happened in the winter, but didn’t for some reason. Romero, who is currently on the IL, might have more value than May if he were pitching right now. Lefty, closer experience; he could get a decent return. I’m curious to see if anyone bites.
• Riley O’Brien: But he’s got team control and has pitched well? Yeah, he’s also in his early 30s and has shown some cracks as the season went on. His value is the highest right now and we all know relievers can break easily.
• Pedro Pages: The market for catcher is pretty good for a seller, and Pages’ defense and pitch calling will attract teams. You won’t get a huge haul, but the team has so many catchers right now they need to move someone. The Angels have a GM that’s familiar with the Cards catchers and could be a trade partner here.
• Ramon Urias: Another IL guy that would be moved if healthy. If they could get Svanson for Paul DeJong, they could get a similar reliever here.
• Ryne Stanek: Like May and Urias, he was a guy we figured would probably be moved at mid-season, like Phil Maton last year. Stanek is probably not going anywhere though because his trade value is low (-0.1 bWAR, 90 ERA+) and they need to have someone in the bullpen if they trade Romero and O’Brien.

I’m listening, or guys that I would move for the right price.

• Ivan Herrera: I know many consider Herrera as a potential untouchable, but there are some flaws in his game that have me questioning his future. He’s been streaky on offense, which has been a problem for the whole team. He also doesn’t have a position, and it sucks to tie up the DH position on a daily basis; I’d rather slot guys in there to give them a day off in the field. Herrera could probably bring back the biggest haul, and if someone approached the team with a top 100 prospect (specifically a pitcher or third baseman), I’d jump at it.
• Andre Pallante: If Noot isn’t part of the future, then you’d have to assume Pallante isn’t either; I feel like Pallante is the pitching version of Noot, without the popularity. The only issue is you have less depth with pitching than you do in the outfield right now. If the team were overwhelmed with an offer, it would be crazy to pass.
• Nathan Church, Jose Fermin, Bryan Torres, and Nelson Velazquez: These are all depth piece, replacement level players for the most part; 3 of the 4 were “low hanging fruit” as someone used to say. I’d move them in the right deal, especially if they brought back MLB-ready players who fill holes. Church is probably the most valuable on the market, but also the least likely to go because he’s the most valuable to the team.
• Justin Bruihl and Ryan Fernandez: I’m only listening on these 2 because the Cards need arms in the bullpen, they’ve been somewhat effective, and you really won’t get much for them. I expect them both with the team August 4th, but it can’t hurt to see if anyone is interest.

Untouchables

• JJ Wetherholt: I mean, he’s the probably rookie of the year and they just locked him up to an affordable contract.
• Jordan Walker: For all the work Walker put in and the step forward he’s taken this season, he’s not going anywhere. But teams will be calling and hopefully shut down right away. He’s the #1 guy to sign to an extension right now.
• Alec Burleson: Burleson is the #2 guy to extend. He’s been solid for a while now and he’s still getting better. I think he’s a potential clubhouse leader and they will turn away other teams.
• Masyn Winn: While Winn’s bat hasn’t come along like you’ve hoped, he’s still a defensive whiz and you could hide his bat in theory, if you get a few more guys around him. I’m not calling for an extension yet, but he’s a guy that you should hang onto.
• Michael McGreevy: McGreevy is here not because he’s an ace (he’s not), but because he’s a good pitcher that doesn’t cost much and you don’t have much else if you were to move him. If the team gets an ace and a #2, McGreevy becomes a much better asset to the team.
• Joshua Baez and Leo Bernal: We don’t know what either of these guys can do yet, but the potential is there. Since they are both on the 40-man, you can slot them in as soon as you deal some of the guys mentioned above; in fact, both should be up August 4th.

I’m not ready to move them yet…hear me out

• Matthew Liberatore, Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, and Thomas Saggese: Hot Take: I think these guys have value still, but they need to unlock it. Maybe give them all one more shot and send them to Driveline this winter, like the team did with Walker. All have shown flashed of their talent, they just need that push to use it. Now, if a team made an obscene offer for any of them, the Cardinals need to consider it, as a change of scenery is just as likely as the Cardinals being able to fix them.
• Blaze Jordan, Jimmy Crooks, and Cesar Prieto: These are young guys that just need to cook to see what they can become. Jordan might not be the answer at third, but he’d be a nice bench piece. Crooks has shown more potential in them minors, so he might need a little more time to adjust. Prieto didn’t really get a chance to show what he could do.
• Kyle Leahy: I struggled with keeping Leahy off the untouchable list, because he’s very much like McGreevy: reliable pitcher who won’t be an ace but slots in nicely at the back of the rotation. Since Leahy has a little more MLB experience, he’s probably more expendable for the future. The team needs to be very overwhelmed to deal him since he’s been very reliable this season.
• Hunter Dobbins, Max Rajcic, and Luis Gastelum: The Jordan/Crooks/Prieto of pitchers on the roster. None have established themselves yet in the Majors. The team is really high on Dobbins and he’s shown flashes of what he can do. Rajcic is out for this and most of next season, so I don’t expect his name to come up. Gastelum shot up the team prospect rankings with a solid minor league season, but it hasn’t translated yet to MLB success. He needs more time.
• Gordon Graceffo: Graceffo might have the most potential of the pitchers on the 40-man roster if he get everything going. A one time prospect, Graceffo hasn’t found his footing yet in the majors but things are starting to go in the right direction. I believe they could stretch him back out for the rotation, but that should wait until next year.
• George Soriano: Soriano is our future closer if Romero and O’Brien are both dealt. And he’s earned it; only Graceffo and Romero have a higher ERA+ out of the regular bullpen guys. And unlike O’Brien, he’s still young enough that the Cardinals can get more out of him.
• Brycen Mautz, Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Hjerpe: All of these guys still need to prove what they can do at the MLB level. In the past, these are the types of guys who could be move in a playoff push; I’m hoping not this year. Any of them could be brought in to replace guys who are dealt.

So, if the Cardinals aren’t going to go all in, what can they do? There are some low cost options out there.

The Astros designated Nate Pearson for assignment after a short stint in the Majors; unfortunately they traded him to the Royals before the Cardinals had a chance to claim him.

Danny Coulombe is a low risk gamble right now; he was released by the Red Sox on July 18th after posting a 4.50 ERA in 22.0 innings. While those numbers aren’t inspiring, it’s worth noting that he owns a 3.43 career ERA across 338.2 innings and that a move to the Cardinals would put him in a ballpark that suppresses hitter numbers. They could get him for a prorated MLB minimum. Plus he’s a lefty, which would help if they did trade Romero.

Another rebound candidate is Lance McCullers Jr., who was recently acquired by the Brewers and subsequently released after a mediocre showing. He’s been a starter in the past, but worked out of the bullpen for his 2 Brewer appearances. After helping the Astros to a couple of championships, McCullers struggled to stay healthy and it’s impacted his pitching. Maybe a change to Busch would help, but he’s kind of a last ditch signing.

Another one that needs to play out still is Jameson Taillon; he was just designated for assignment by the Cubs and the Cardinals need to wait out his DFA period to get him for the minimum. Taillon was an elite pitcher at the time the Cubs acquired him from the Rays, but age has started to catch up to him. He’s been bitten by the homer and walk bug, but maybe the Cardinals can unlock the magic he once had. Plus it would be fun to see him turn it around with the Cardinals after the Cubs gave up on him.

There are also trade options available, but the Cardinals shouldn’t make a deal that jeopardizes the future; this is a “runway” season still and they need to just let the kids play. If they can get a few arms to help make it to the finish line and they don’t cost a Roby, Hence, Fitts, or other prospect, they should pull the trigger.