The Cardinals Draft: A History of the 5th Pick

The Cardinals Draft: A History of the 5th Pick

Plus some players the Cardinals could take

The MLB Draft is July 13 and 14 this year, and the Cardinals will have the 5th overall pick. It’s the highest pick they’ve had since 1998 and there’s a chance to get a premium player. Here’s a quick rundown of the 5th pick of the draft and a few players the “experts” think the Cardinals could take.

The Cardinals have had 1 #5 pick:

Drew was the lone player; he was an interesting case too. He was drafted in 1997 by the Phillies (1.2), but didn’t sign. He went to play with the St. Paul Saints of the independent Northern League in 1997 and the start of 1998 before re-entering the draft.

After he was drafted, he spent a few weeks with the Arkansas Travelers (AA) and the Memphis Redbirds (AAA) before getting into 14 games with the Cardinals. He started 1999 in the minors, but was quickly up to stay other than the occasional rehab stint.

Drew ended up being traded to the Braves in the deal that brought back Adam Wainwright; he was going to be too expensive to re-sign when his contract was up, so the team got something for him. He ended his 6 year tenure with an 18.1 bWAR and 128 OPS+.

That said, let’s look at the history of the #5 overall pick across the MLB. There have been 60 players drafted at #5. 40 players made the majors; 2 didn’t sign with their team, so we’ll say 38 (63%). Of the 38, 24 had positive bWAR (63%), 3 had a neutral bWAR, or 0.0 (8%), and 11 had a negative bWAR (29%).

Of the 20 that didn’t make the majors, only 2 didn’t sign. The last 3 #5 draft picks are still in the minors, as to be expected.

Here are the last 20 years picks at #5:

Hobgood is the lone pick in the last 20 years to not make the Majors before his career ended; like I said, the last 3 #5 picks are still in the minors with a very good chance to make it.

The #5 pick has seen 4 players not sign:

Bannister and Patterson ended up making the majors later on, while Bustabad and Henderson didn’t. There are very few first round picks that don’t sign; most of them are due to medical concerns.

Here are the top 5 #5 picks according to bWAR:

Gooden could have been an all time great if not for his addiction issues. Teixeira and Braun were elite players until they dropped off quickly. Murphy still gets old statheads riled up because he’s not in the Hall; as we see above, if he’s in so should Teixeira and Braun based on bWAR (which I know more goes into than just this). Posey just retired and is running the Giants now; he’s another one that garners some Hall talk.

Overall, this a solid group of players.

Other Notable #5 picks:

While Valentine wasn’t the best player drafted, he did end up having a great managing career. Mercker was a key reliever in the mid-90s Braves Dynasty that only won 1 World Series. McDowell was an above average starter and considered an ace at times.

Wells might go down with one of the worst extensions in baseball history (7 years, $126M in 2008; 6.8 bWAR across 3 teams before being released after the 2013 season), but he was a useful player prior to that (and even in 2010, where he was worth 4.0 bWAR and had an OPS+ of 126). He ended his career with a 104 OPS+.

The worst:

Miller pitched in 37 games across 5 seasons in the Majors. The Pirates traded him before he made it up; after that, he bounced around in various trades.

So that brings us to this year. The Cardinals have a history of going after high floor, low-ceiling college players; that’s typically been because they are safe, the better players to gamble on have traditionally been gone when they’ve drafted, and they’ve been successful staying in their lane.

Mock Drafts:
Bleacher Report (07/10): Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Just Baseball (07/10): Willits
My MLB Draft (07/10): Willits
USA Today (07/10): Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Prep Baseball Report (07/09): Willits
The Athletic – Law (07/08): Willits
The Sporting Tribune (07/08): Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida St
IBWAA (07/07): Willits
MLB – Callis (07/03): Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn
ESPN – Experts (06/30): JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Future Sox (06/30): Arnold
Medium – Nae (06/26): Billy Carlson, SS/RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Pitchers List (6/26): Carlson
Baseball Prospect Journal (06/24): Willits
Call To The ‘Pen (06/21): Doyle
ESPN – McDaniels (06/18): Willits
Prospects Live (04/30): Willits
Sportsnaut (04/22): Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)

The consensus right now is Willits; the son of former Angel Reggie Willits is getting comps similar to J.J. Wetherholt, last year’s pick for the Cardinals. While that’s a nice player to add to the system, I think I’d rather go with Doyle or Arnold.

Doyle and Arnold should both move quickly in a system that is lacking some elite pitching depth. Here’s a good rundown on both of them. Arnold gets comps of Chris Sale most frequently, while also Nick Lodolo, and Aaron Nola have been mentioned; Doyle’s motion got a Bob Gibson comp and his rise up boards this season gets a Paul Skenes comp, even though Skenes was a much better pitcher. Arnold seems like the safer pick, but Doyle has more upside; Doyle gets a lot of “future reliever” mentions in scouting reports.

I’ll have the draft signing track up and running next week.