2021 Cardinal Projections: Harrison Bader
Like I’ve done for the last few years, I’m working through my Cardinals projections for the upcoming season. The process this year is trickier; normally I take a 3 year average of the players stats for a portion of the projections, but this past season saw the 60 game season, so there was a little extra math.
My projections take into account the already mentioned 3 year average and similar players. On Baseball Reference, they list comparable players by career and by age; I factor in what those players did at the same age as the player I’m projecting. Again, if the comp was from 2020, I had to do a little math to equal it out to a 162 game season.
Next up is most polarizing player on the Cardinals: Harrison Bader.
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB/ATT | K | BB | Avg/OBP/SLG | ISO | WAR | |
| 3 Yr | 134 | 337 | 57 | 79 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 11/14 | 117 | 37 | .233/.328/.409 | .176 | 2.8 |
| Comps | 90 | 249 | 33 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 5/7 | 59 | 25 | .254/.324/.420 | .165 | 0.9 |
| Projection | 112 | 293 | 45 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 8/11 | 88 | 31 | .242/.327/.416 | .174 | 1.8 |
Comps: Jim Hickman, Roger Repoz, Laynce Nix, Carl Everett, Tony Tarasco, Jose Bautista, Michael A. Taylor, Peter Bourjos, Vince DiMaggio, Greg Norton, Mikie Mahtook, Bill Renna, Pete Whisenant*, Jim Dyck*, Ken Hunt, Mark Smith, Ken Wood, Justin Maxwell*.
* Did not play in age 27 season.
You’ll notice that the comps don’t have the playing time; it’s because most of his comparable players moved to more of a part time role by this point of their careers. That could very well happen this season. Unfortunately, Bader was the third best offensive player on the Cardinals in 2020; that shouldn’t be the case in 2021.
Just a note for Cardinal fans: the Bourjos age 27 season was his season with the Cardinals. That has to instill a lot of faith.
Baders defense is what will keep him on the team; once he’s no longer a starter, he’ll be the 4th outfielder/defensive replacement.
How do his numbers compare to the other projections?
| G | PA | HR | R | RBI | Avg | OBP | SLG | BABIP | ISO | WAR | |
| Nyrdcast | 112 | 334 | 10 | 71 | 34 | .242 | .327 | .416 | .316 | .174 | 1.8 |
| THE BAT X | 133 | 599 | 21 | 77 | 66 | .233 | .317 | .412 | .303 | .179 | |
| THE BAT | 133 | 600 | 21 | 76 | 64 | .231 | .316 | .405 | .302 | .174 | |
| ATC | 138 | 490 | 16 | 67 | 50 | .230 | .323 | .405 | .306 | .176 | |
| FGDC | 131 | 567 | 19 | 71 | 62 | .230 | .317 | .403 | .309 | .173 | 1.9 |
| Steamer | 129 | 507 | 17 | 56 | 58 | .232 | .320 | .402 | .306 | .170 | 1.8 |
| ZiPS | 138 | 440 | 15 | 61 | 46 | .228 | .314 | .404 | .312 | .176 | 1.8 |
These other systems believe he’ll get more playing time then my system does; mine shows better overall numbers considering the playing time difference. The other big difference is homers and RBIs; I don’t see him hitting a ton of balls out and I don’t think he’ll have a lot of RBI opportunities. That said, I show a higher slugging because my system sees more doubles and triples proportionally then the other systems.
I think Bader starts the season in center, but he’ll be bumped after struggling out of the gate. I think we’ll see more Dylan Carlson and/or Lane Thomas in center this season.
Other projections:
Nolan Arenado
Paul Goldschmidt
Yadier Molina
Don’t forget to check the Cardinal Salary Matrix and the Cardinal Prospect Tracker for updates.
