Monday Morning GM: 3 Games Down…

Welcome to the first of a weekly Cardinal recap of the past week. We’ll look at the games, the numbers, and the news and rumors.

2 Out of 3 Ain’t Bad
We are 3 games in and people need to chill out. These are direct quotes from social media:
“2 out of 3 starts by SP were bad. Not a good start.”

“Cardinals DH position: 1 for 9, 1 RBI, 1 K, 7 LOB.”

“Time to give Noot a chance at DH role against right handers!”

We can tell nothing yet about the season from 3 games. Yeah, the pitching struggled and we didn’t get much from the DH position. We also didn’t have a normal spring and many guys are still getting up to speed.

I think 6 innings on Thursday was a good start for Adam Wainwright and the exception to the start of the season. Of the 98 starts this season, only 14 were 6 innings or longer. 50% of starting pitchers went less then 5 innings. Both Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz were in the 50%. Neither looked good, but it was their first starts; let’s give them a couple before bashing them (or the front office for signing them).

The DH didn’t perform well either, and it could be something we see a lot of this season. That said, where are the complaints about Yadier Molina leaving 6 guys on base the first game? Let’s compare the 2 so far:

The Corey Dickerson/Albert Pujols tandem at DH is pretty much at the same level as Yadi. I don’t expect any of these guys to be sub-.100 hitters. The LOB thing might be an issue, along with the double plays (Yadi already has 1).

The same is true of the other side. Nolan Arenado will not hit .500 with 108 home runs (what he’s technically on pace for). Wainwright will not throw a scoreless 6 innings every start.

Basically, let’s just enjoy baseball and worry about how players are doing next month.

Pythagorean Record
And after all that, let’s look at run differential and what the Cardinals record should be and could be at the end of season.

(For those that don’t know about Pythagorean Record, if you plug runs scored and runs allowed into the Pythagorean theorem, you could figure what a teams record should be. You can find more here.)

The Cardinals have scored 19 runs and allowed 11, for a run differential of +8. That gives them a record of 2-1 when plugged into the Pythagorean Theorem; they are winning in line with their run differential. If they continue at this rate, their full season record would be 121-41. Like the section above, this is unrealistic to expect they’ll continue at this pace. I’m expecting around 90 wins for the season.

I’ll update this next week to see how they are projecting.

Cardinal News
A quick rundown of last week’s news.

• The Cardinals promoted Andre Pallante to the 26-man roster; he was added to the 40-man at the expense of Brandon Waddell. Pallante is one of the better relief prospects in the system and can throw hard; look for a profile this week. Waddell will go to Memphis and try to get back with the big league club; I wouldn’t expect it though, as his Triple A and MLB track record is not impressive.
• Jordan Hicks was named the 5th starter. I’m not crazy about the move. He’s injury-prone due to his high velocity and hasn’t had to start since he was in the minors in 2017. While he did use 4 pitches at that time, he’s only really relied on 2 pitches since his move to the bullpen; those 2 pitches have varied from year to year.
• Andrew Miller announced his retirement. There wasn’t much interest in the lefty this off-season. I think he wanted to continue playing, as he was a large part of the players union negotiation group during the lockout.
• Cardinal free agent Jose Rondon has been suspended for a failed PED test. It’s speculated that he tested positive towards the end of the last season, as a member of the Cardinals, and wasn’t announced until now due to the lockout. It could also be the reason he wasn’t signed by anyone.

Rumor Mill
No real rumors at this point. This probably won’t pick up until May, but I’ll keep an eye on it.

Former Cardinal News
Here’s a quick rundown of former Cardinals in the news:

• Jose Godoy has been outrighted off the Twin’s 40-man roster. He was an off-season waivers claim after spending 2021 with the Mariners (and making his MLB debut). Godoy slowly worked up the Cardinals system, but was a minor league free agent after 2020.
• Luke Weaver has been placed on the 10-day IL to start the season. He’s down with right elbow inflammation. Weaver was to start 2022 in the Diamondback’s bullpen after losing his rotation spot in Spring Training.
• The Mariners signed Daniel Ponce de Leon to a minor league deal and will pitch at Triple A Tacoma. They also signed Rob Kaminsky to a minor league deal and he’ll join Ponce de Leon at Tacoma.
• Players who made rosters: Greg Holland (RHP, Texas Rangers), Chasen Shreve (LHP, New York Mets)
• Players who didn’t make rosters: Matt Carpenter (DH, Texas Rangers)
• DL placements: Lance Lynn (White Sox, knee), Joe Kelly (White Sox, bicep)

Don’t forget to check the Cardinals Salary Matrix for team spending.