Monday Afternoon GM: Deadline Edition

It’s hard to remember that the Cardinals played last week, since the only topic of discussion was Juan Soto; but they did play last week and there were 2 disappointing games to go with 3 wins.

The Cardinals were 1-1 in Toronto without Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Austin Romine (all on the restricted list for lack of vaccination); considering 2 of the 3 are a considerable part of the offense, a split really isn’t that bad. They got smoked in game 1, where the offense and the pitching struggled; Andre Pallante came out flat and the bullpen didn’t help him. It shows how bad things were when T.J. McFarland was the teams best pitcher on the day. Game 2 was much better with Adam Wainwright pitching a great game and the offense showing up.

The Nationals series was better, but there were still issues. Game 1 on Friday night was a strong performance from Miles Mikolas and the offense looked like the one from Wainwrights game. Game 2, Oliver Marmol pulled Dakota Hudson in the 5th inning to see the bullpen blow the game; the team made a late run, but they came up a run short. I put the loss squarely on Marmol; Hudson looked pretty good, even with 2 runners on base and only 80 something pitches. The team was able to forget the loss and get 8 great, shutout innings from Pallante.

Up Next
With an off day today, the Cardinals have 3 against the Cubs and 3 against the Yankees. The Cardinals are 4-4 against the Cubs; the Cardinals haven’t faced the Yankees this season.

NL Central

The Brewers picked up 1/2 game last week since they played an extra game over the Cardinals. It’s going to be a tight race down the stretch, but the Cardinals do have the easier schedule (and the Brewers’ bullpen took a hit by trading Josh Hader for Taylor Rogers; Dinelson Lamet is a nice piece, but he won’t make up the different between the closers and the prospects they received won’t help this year).

The Cardinals are on pace for a 86-76 record, which probably won’t get them a title but might be enough for a wild card.

NL Wild Card

The Cardinals dropped out of the last wild card spot last week, but managed to create space between them and the Giants. This is going to be as tight as the division race, especially with the Padres ramping up their roster.

Run Differential
The Cardinals have scored 471 runs and allowed 404, for a run differential of +67. That should put there record at 58-44, or 4 wins better then they are playing; they should finish the season with a 92-70 record.

The run differential is good for 4th in the NL and 6th in the MLB.

Cardinal News

The Cardinals traded Edmundo Sosa to the Phillies for lefty reliever JoJo Romero. Sosa was out of options and not playing as well as he had in the past. I think the real motivator for making the deal was getting Paul DeJong up with the Major League Club. Romero struggles with command and probably won’t see much time with the Cardinals; he does have an option year remaining, so the Cardinals don’t have to be in a hurry to decide on his future. He was assigned to Memphis.

As mentioned earlier, Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Romine were all placed on the restricted list for the Toronto series and activated when the team arrived in DC; Ivan Herrera, Conner Capel, and Cory Spangenberg were added to the roster and sent right back down after the 2 games. The Cardinals also activated Hudson off the IL and sent down James Naile in DC.

The Cardinals pretty much completed their draft signings last week. Only 20th round pick Gavin Van Kempen has not signed, and he has informed the team he will be headed to West Virginia for college. Here’s the complete draft tracker.

Cardinal Rumors

On Friday, I wrote the Cardinals had a deal in place with the Nats for Juan Soto; from what I’ve been told, the Nats wanted to wait until Monday because they wanted to offer Soto one more extension over and they didn’t want to trade him to the Cardinals when they were playing each other. Saturday night, the Padres upped their offer and looked to be the favorites. The Cardinals countered on Sunday and look to be back in the lead. The players are unknown at this time, but rumor had it Jordan Walker is back in the deal along with Dylan Carlson and Masyn Winn.

The pitching front is quiet because the prospects in play for Soto are also wanted by other teams; specifically the A’s, Reds, and Angels all have interest in Nolan Gorman, along with just about every other team. At this point, the Cardinals are tied to Frankie Montas (traded to the Yankees), Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Noah Syndergaard, Jose Quintana, Jake Odorizzi, and Nathan Eovaldi.

Montas will cost the most, as he’s still have a year of control before hitting the free agent market. Katie Woo was reporting prior to the Luis Castillo trade that Montas would cost at least 2 top prospects and an MLB ready player; that price has probably gone up since Castillo netted 3 top prospects (the Mariners #1, 3, 5, along with a mid-level prospect)

Many are mentioning the Cardinals and Shohei Ohtani, but that’s coming from people saying the Cardinals have the pieces to acquire Ohtani. There has been no rumors that the Cardinals have talked to the Angels on the 2-way player; they have talked to them about Syndergaard. I’d rather get Ohtani then Soto because we get a hitter and pitcher; the need for pitching is greater then the need of hitting. It doesn’t matter anyways since the Angels have pulled Ohtani’s name off the market.

Carlos Rodon is another name that’s out there that the Cardinals haven’t been linked to yet, but I would imagine they’d ask. Since he’s triggered his potential opt out clause, the Cardinals could get him a little cheaper then some of the other better pitchers; at the very least, the could negotiate with him about not opting out.

Minor Leagues

• Memphis Redbirds: 54-44, 3rd Place
  • Up Next: @ Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (54-45)
  • Matt Koperniak (OF), Roberto Baldoquin (IF), Dalton Roach (RHP) promoted from Springfield.
  • Aaron Brooks (RHP) to IL.
• Springfield Cardinals: 46-50, 2nd Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: @ Corpus Christi Hooks (43-53)
• Peoria Chiefs: 41-55, 5th Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: @ Dayton Dragons (48-46)
  • Jack Ralston (RHP), Inohan Paniagua (RHP), Patrick Romeri (OF), Aaron McKeithan (C) promoted from Peoria.
  • Colin Schmid (LHP), Enmanuel Solano (RHP), Carlos Soto (C) released.
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 47-47, 1st Place (2nd Half)
  • Up Next: vs Jupiter Hammerheads (50-43)
  • Hancel Rincon (RHP), Yonael Dominguez (RHP), Diorys Guerrero (LHP) promoted from FCL Cardinals.
  • Heyes Heinecke (LHP) off IL.
  • Alex Cornwell (LHP), Bryan Pope (RHP), Roy Garcia (RHP), Jhon Torres (OF) to IL.
  • Chris Holba (RHP), Matt Chamberlain (OF), Jesus Orecchia (C/1B) released.
  • Draftees Nathan Church (OF), Jimmy Crooks (C), Michael Curialle (IF), Brody Moore (IF), Victor Scott (OF), Alex Iadisernia (OF), Chris Rotondo (OF) assigned to Palm Beach.
  • Non-drafteed free agent R.J. Yeager (IF) signed and assigned to Palm Beach.
• FCL Cardinals: 15-21, 5th Place
• DSL Cardinals: 23-18, 6th Place

Rehab Assignments

• Harrison Bader – Bader was pulled from his rehab assignment; his plantar fasciitis has flared back up and the team is planning next steps. At this point, it could be a while before he’s back with the Cardinals, if at all this season.
• Yadier Molina (Memphis) – 2 G, 5 AB, 1 H, 1 R, 1 SB, 1 BB, .200/.429/.200
  • He was hit in the hand on Friday night while hitting, but was able to play the next night.

Former Cardinals

• David Peralta (OF, Diamondbacks) was traded to the Rays for a minor league catcher; he’ll provide another good outfield option and depth for the Rays outfield.
• Angel Rondon (RHP, Giants) didn’t last long on San Francisco’s 40-man; the pitcher was designated for assignment this past Tuesday.

The Scary Cost of Soto
While the player cost of trading for Soto is scary – any combination of Carlson, Gorman, Walker and Winn would hurt – the real cost might be what doesn’t happen as the Cardinals wait. As I’ve been writing this, Montas was acquired by the Yankees. As I noted above, the A’s were wanting players tied up in the potential Soto deal, so the Yankees were able to swoop in and take the top remaining pitcher on the market.

The Cardinals can’t afford to wait to see what happens with Soto; pitching is much more important to this seasons’ success and we’re going to miss out on upgrades the longer we wait.

With Montas gone, we’re going to start seeing the remaining pitching go quick. The Padres are going to be aggressive. The Twins have their eyes on pitching, as do the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Mets. We might still have the Mariners and Yankees involved. With all these teams, the pool for available guys is going to shrink.

The Cardinals are going to have to set a deadline, and a rather soon one, with the Nationals. They need to pull the offer when the deadline comes and move on, or reduce it significantly. It might me we lose out on a generational talent, but it allows the team to address their biggest weakness.