The John Gant Problem

Coming into the 2021 season, it appeared that John Gant had finally earned his shot at the rotation. And he started the season on fire, at least when you looked at the surface numbers; he had a great ERA and kept the Cardinals in the game for 5 innings each start.

But the walks…

Due to his walk rate, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) did not support the low ERA.

Since he was giving up a ton of walks, you see that his FIP is above his ERA for each start. The ERA is lower because the runners were not scoring until the month of June; the timing is interesting since the MLB has cracked down on foreign substances in the middle of the month. So, has Gant been using a substance?

If you look at his spin rates, it was possible.

You would assume that if he was using something early in the season and stopped over the last few starts that his spin rate would have dropped; according to Baseball Savant, it would appear that is has. At least in his start against the Tigers; he didn’t use his slider, which had the most average spin of any of his pitches. His curve dropped 99 rpm, his sinker 51, and his 4-seam 24; his cutter didn’t change and he got an additional 4 rpm on his change.

It’s also possible that he wasn’t based of the fact that his spin rates fluctuated so much from start to start; it’s not uncommon for a 100 rpm drop from start to start for him. Look at where his curve ball was in this first start compared to his most recent one; there is a 123 rpm drop and his last start wasn’t even the lowest rpm count of the season (May 12, 2360 rpm). If they continue to drop, or the fluctuation disappears, we might be able to tell a little better.

Another thing I found was his pitch usage also changed.

He started the season with his sinker and change up, but switched the change up for a slider, then a 4-seam, went back to the change, then to a brand new cutter that wasn’t used until May 18th. It’s arguable that once his cutter got in the mix, his pitching started to deteriorate. His June 1st start was pretty good (6.0 innings, 0 ER, 3 BB), but his ERA for the following 4 starts was over 12.

There is really not a trend as to why he’s been so inconsistent. He’s getting less Whiff % on his curve, change, and slider compared to last season. His fastball velocity (both 4-seam and sinker) is also down, but that’s probably due to starting versus relieving; he can add a few MPH when he goes for shorter stints.

My only guess for the June struggles is tied to usage; he’s had one season of over 100 innings (2018, 114.0 IP) and the last 2 seasons out of the bullpen have been 66.1 and 15.0. He’s currently at 64.2 innings in less then 3 months.

The problem for the Cardinals is they can’t move him out of the rotation; there isn’t a candidate to replace him, and Johan Oviedo has been worse in the rotation. You also have Carlos Martinez who’s struggling in his last few starts. The Memphis Redbirds roster has some talent, but they aren’t any more ready for the Majors then Oviedo; here are the 4 starters with at least 6 starts:

Liberatore is the best option, but he’s currently on Memphis’s restricted list as he’s pitching with Team USA; while he’s the best option, his numbers aren’t earth shattering.

There aren’t really options to move from the bullpen. Ryan Helsley is struggling, Alex Reyes is entrenched as the closer (and walking more batters then Gant), and Genesis Cabrera is too important to the struggling bullpen. While Gant has had success in the past, it’s a tall order to expect he’d be as good as Cabrera has been. Wade LeBlanc might be an option, but his numbers as a starter over the last couple of seasons have been uninspiring.

Even if the team were to trade for a starter (here were some options I previously wrote about), Oviedo is the first man out. Then you have to decide if Martinez or Gant would work better in the bullpen, or hurt you less in the rotation, if they acquire a second pitcher.

No matter what, this rotation is not made to go deep in the post season as is, and needs a major upgrade to go with Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright ASAP.