The Cardinals and the Bryce Harper Market

It’s no secret that the Cardinals need an impact bat.  It’s also no secret that Cardinal fans want to see Bryce Harper as that bat.  Is it realistic though?

If you look at the recent history of the Cardinals, a deal like this doesn’t happen often; but it’s not for lack of trying.

The last big money free agent contract the Cardinals handed out was to Matt Holliday.  He received 7 years, $119M in 2010.  At the time, it was huge that they gave Holliday this contract as they didn’t normally make commitments like that on the open market (they signed Albert Pujols to 7-year, $100M extension in 2004, but he was under team control at that time; same with Adam Wainwright and his 5-year, $97.5M extension starting in 2014).

Since then, they offered:

• Pujols a rumored 10-year, $250M contract after the 2011 season
• Jason Heyward a rumored 8-year, $200M contract after the 2015 season</li>
• David Price a rumored 7-year, $187M contract after the 2015 season</li>

They also offered a prospect package to the Marlins to take on Giancarlo Stanton and his mammoth contract; unfortunately for the Cardinals, he nixed the deal because he wanted to play in a bigger market.

(These 4 players should also dispel the myth that the Cardinals are cheap; they are willing to spend the money, but they are struggling to finish the deal.  It also drives me nuts when people claim that they didn’t make these deals to finish them, just to appear they are willing to spend.  End rant.)

You can even look at this off-season, when the team made a “competitive” offer for Josh Donaldson; it was rumored that the Cardinals offered 1 year and $19M.  Donaldson signed with the Braves for 1 year, $23M.

Pujols, Price, and Donaldson all received better deals than what the Cardinals offered.  Heyward was offered less money from the Cubs, but received opt out clauses that the Cardinals didn’t include.  There were other factors in some of it too.  Pujols felt disrespected by the club’s offer and bolted for Anaheim.  Donaldson had previously played under Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos (while with the Blue Jays) and grew up a Braves fan. Heyward thought the younger core of Cubs players would be more successful than that of the Cardinals.

The bright side to the long contracts they couldn’t get done has been the decline of all of the players (jury is still out on Stanton).  All 3 the Cardinals made offers on have not lived up to the amount of money they are making, with Price being the best of the 3.

This doesn’t mean the Cardinals should pass on Harper at a large sum; of the 3 large offer the Cardinals made, Heyward was the youngest player at 26 at the time of the contract offer (Price was 30, Pujols was 33); his contract was the least risky from an aging perspective.  The issue with Heyward the power never came as anticipated, and it’s fallen off since going to Chicago; it’s left him as almost a defensive first outfielder (although he did have a better second half this past season).

Harper, like Heyward, will be 26 to start the season.  It makes more financial sense to sign a long contract with a player that will end it in his mid-30s.

The question with Harper is which player we’ll get: the 10.0 bWAR superstar from 2015 or the 1.3 bWAR player with the slow start in 2018?  For the amount of money he’s looking for, you’d expect the 10 bWAR player. Unfortunately, baseball is a game that pays you for what you’ve done, not what you are going to do.

The Nationals haven’t done him many favors though.  This past season, he had two 4 bWAR players (Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner), a 3 bWAR player (Juan Soto), and no 2 bWAR players as teammates; these were the only hitters with a higher bWAR than Harper (Ryan Zimmerman was tied).  That’s not bad support, but the supporting cast in St. Louis would help him more; the Cardinals would surround him with a 4 bWAR player (Carpenter), three 3+ bWAR players (Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong), and two more 2+ bWAR players (Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko); the Cardinals also had Yadier Molina, Jose Martinez, and Tyler O’Neill with higher bWARs than Harper.  My theory is there would be less pressure on Harper to carry the slack of the rest of the team, which he had to do at time in Washington; I’ve been vocal of the fact that the Cardinals were a team of supporting players and Harper could be that Pujols-like player who is the star.

There has also been discussion on Harper’s defense in recent years; his defense has been subpar in the outfield. Setting him in right and next to Bader will definitely help that; Bader’s range is so ridiculous that he’d limit the opportunities that Harper might see. By the end of the contract, Harper could definitely shift to first.

It’s also important to remember that outfield was not Harper’s natural position. He was a catcher prior to becoming a professional. Granted, he’s been playing there for 7 years, so any chance of improvement is minimal.

The Harper Rumors:

• The Nationals already offered Harper a 10-year, $300M contract.  I think it was a given that a deal like this wouldn’t get Harper signed; he’s wanting to be the highest paid player and $400M has been floated around.  The Nats also didn’t include opt out clauses, which was a deal breaker.  The team has since pulled the offer, but they aren’t against bringing him back.
• The Cardinals met with Scott Boras and Harper is interested in the team.  Boras might be saying that about any team with money to spend though; it’s not unlike him to try to bid clubs against each other and against themselves.
• Ken Rosenthal doesn’t believe the Cardinals will look at Harper, but rather the corner infield market.  It makes sense, but they need an impact bat; the only impact bat that appears to be available for corner infield is Paul Goldschmidt.  He could still be an option after signing Harper; it’s key to remember though that Goldschmidt is only under contract for next season and that would mean he and Ozuna could walk after 2019, which moves the Cardinals to a worse spot than this past season.
• Harper visited the White Sox.  It looks like they could be players for him, but it could also be them doing their due diligence.  They aren’t ready to be competitive, but they could be around years 2-4 of the contract.  The Cubs appear out though.
• Harper declined the Qualifying Offer from the Nationals; he’ll now cost a team their first round pick.  Right now, the Cardinals have #19, which is not a protected pick.
• MLB Trade Rumors polled readers on where the top free agents would land; the Phillies were first at 34% of the vote.  The Dodgers, Nationals, Giants, and Cubs rounded out the top 5; the Cardinals were at 6 with 7.9%.
• Executives don’t know where Harper (and Machado) will sign either, but they are guessing the Nationals (and the Phillies for Machado).  The Phillies are also commonly linked to Harper.

I’ll update more on Harper-watch as it comes about.