Redbird Droppings: Our No Trade Clause

No trade clauses on Redbird Droppings

The Cardinals are talking with their players with no trade clauses about the next season. Plus other trade candidates, minor transactions, the TV deal, and some former Cardinals in the news.

No Trade Clause
John Mozeliak has been pretty candid about some of the plans for 2025, like the fact they have approached players about waiving no trade clauses; both Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray appear set to stay for the “resetting”.

Contreras will remain with the team and is set to move to first base for the upcoming season; this move might be the biggest the Cardinals make this off-season. With Contreras at first, the team seems to solidify that Jordan Walker will stay in right field; I don’t know if the team ever considered this, but many fans have.

This also solidifies the catching situation; the Cardinals will probably use the tandem of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages as their primary catchers, with Contreras filling in if there is an injury. Both Pages and Herrera were considered trade candidates coming into the off-season.

Where this becomes an issue is with some other young players. Alec Burleson was considered a first base option; while he’s an outfielder, he’s a subpar fielder. His bat would play at first base, if given the chance. It also blocks Luken Baker, who has crushed Triple A pitching for 2 seasons but has limited MLB experience; Baker needs a shot at the Majors to see if that power translates to the MLB level.

Had Contreras stayed at catcher, Baker and Burleson could have (and should have) been slotted into the first base and DH slots; now they’ll probably split time at DH and spell Contreras occasionally, with Burleson getting some outfield reps.

Gray’s name came up as a trade candidate as soon as the Cardinals said they were cutting payroll in their end of season press conference; instead, he’s expressing an interest in staying. The Cardinals could already have their rotation set, even if Gray were not part of the roster; at least now, they will continue to have a true ace.

Who Is Leaving?
While Contreras and Gray have expressed interest in staying, there is an unknown player who would be open to waiving his no trade clause. By doing the math, it would appear to be Nolan Arenado.

Arenado didn’t want to be part of another rebuild reset in Colorado, so I don’t believe he’d want to be part of one in St. Louis, especially as he’s starting to hit the decline phase of his career.

The issue here is who would take on his contract? He’s set to make $32M in ’25, $27M in ’26, and $15M in ’27, with the Rockies paying $5M of that in ’25 and ’26. When you look at 2023-24, you can see he didn’t live up to his $32M per season; according to Fangraphs’ $/WAR, he was worth $21.7M in 2023 and $25.1M in 2024. If the Cardinals were to send the $10M from the Rockies, and pay down another $15M per season, they might get a decent return.

The Dodgers would probably be interested and could handle adding his salary; you might be able to make a case for most big market teams.

Miles Mikolas could be another possibility as the player who would be interested in being traded, but his trade value is pretty low and the Cardinals would have to eat most of his contract if they were to try to move him.

MLBTR Top 35 Trade Candidates
MLB Trade Rumors has their annual Top 35 Trade Candidates article up, and the Cardinals have a large presence on the list: Ryan Helsley at 2, Erick Fedde at 3, Arenado at 10, Gray at 11, Contreras at 12, Brendan Donovan at 20, and Nolan Gorman at 21.

We know Gray and Contreras want to stay put and Arenado could be willing to go, but the others are interesting. Helsley is probably the top reliever on the market and should fetch a decent return. Fedde might never get the chance to really prove himself in St. Louis; many fans consider the cost of acquiring him (along with Tommy Pham) for Tommy Edman way too high, especially after the October Edman had.

The interesting names on the list were Donovan and Gorman; for a rebuilding team, these 2 don’t seem like obvious trade candidates. Donovan was the reason Edman was expendable at the trade deadline; having a utility player at this level is good for every team. Donovan can play just about everywhere and hold his own. Donovan is projected to make $3.6M according to MLB Trade Rumors; while that doesn’t sound like much, the team might have to dump where they can if they can’t unload Contreras ($18M) and Gray ($25M).

Donovan can fetch a nice package of players; a former gold glove winning utility player who can hit as an everyday player is not something that every team has.

Gorman might be seen as more of a “change of scenery” candidate; while his 2023 was pretty good, he completely regressed in ’24. I pegged him as “Joey Gallo” high end projection back in 2019 and I stand by that now. Gorman had more defensive value, but I don’t ever see him as a league average hitter with plus power; he’ll be low average/contact.

There are teams out there that believe they could “fix” Gorman, but they won’t be willing to give up much to get him.

There were 2 former Cardinals on the list: Lane Thomas at 28 and Jordan Montgomery at 33; neither are as appealing as the Cardinal players, but it’ll be interesting to see if they are dealt.

Minor Transactions
The Cardinals announced the re-signing of 11 minor league free agents:

• Augusto Calderon, RHP
• Gavin Collins, C
• Angel Cuenca, RHP
• Matt Lloyd, OF
• Ramon Mendoza, 3B
• Darlin Moquete, OF
• Packy Naughton, LHP
• Inohan Paniagua, RHP
• Dionys Rodriguez, RHP
• Victor Santos, RHP
• Chance Sisco, C

No real notable players here; Naughton pitched at the MLB level a few years ago, but he’s expected to miss 2025 (but signed a 2 year minor league contract).

The New TV Deal
The Cardinals and Diamond Sports Group announced a new TV deal for the 2025 season. While the press release didn’t give any numbers, there are reports that the Cardinals are receiving 23% less money than the original deal with Bally Sports; so they’ll have $57M in TV money instead of $75M. That’s a higher end free agent, or a couple of relievers, for a team that’s cutting back money.

If the Cardinals would be in a different financial state, it wouldn’t be a huge deal; this off-season, it’s going to have ripples. With the team diverting money to the farm system and technology, that’s more that they’ll be without. The front office was definitely aware of the money they were losing out on, so I’m going to assume it was already factored into their plan (granted, we also assumed they were a competent franchise prior to 2023).

I’ll be interesting to see if that does change anything publicly with the team.

Former Cardinals In The News

• Michael Wacha is staying with the Royals, agreeing to a 3 year, $50M deal with a club option ($14M/$1M buyout). It’s a good deal for both sides, although Wacha could have possibly gotten more had he tested the market more. After a few years of bouncing around, he might have preferred a few years of stability.
• Joe Kelly isn’t done pitching; he’s wanting to play another season. Kelly got a World Series ring this year, even though he was left off the Dodgers WS roster. If he’s cheap, I could see the Cardinals interested.
• Luke Weaver had his club option exercised ($2.5M) exercised by the Yankees; Weaver emerged as a solid closer, until he coughed up a few games in the World Series. Yankee fans might not be thrilled to have him back, but he’s a steal at that price.
• The Braves picked up Marcell Ozuna‘s club option ($16M). Ozuna had an very good season with a 4.3 WAR and 154 OPS+, so $16M is very reasonable.
• After missing most of the season, Marco Gonzales had his option declined by the Pirates; he’s not expected to pitch in 2025, so he won’t have much of a market.
• The following players were outrighted off their respective team’s rosters and became free agents: Anthony Misiewicz (LHP, Yankees); Matt Bowman (RHP, Orioles); Genesis Cabrera (LHP, Blue Jays); Ildemaro Vargas (UT, Nationals)
• Evan Sisk was added to the Royals 40-man roster; he was traded with John Gant for J.A. Happ a few seasons ago.
• The Mets claimed RHP Kevin Herget from the Brewers; the former farmhand has bounced around since the Cardinals let him walk.
• The Rangers have hired Skip Schumaker to be a Senior Advisor to POBO Chris Young; Skip won’t be in the dugout this year, but this appears to be a placeholder situation until he can get another managing position.

I’ll hopefully finish up the Mozeliak scorecard this week and start posting it next week.