Projecting Mike Leake, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Martinez

Mike Leake and Carlos Martinez were polar opposites in the rotation in 2016. Leake was expected to do great things because he was the big free agent signing of the team; unfortunately, he didn’t have a defense behind him and his numbers reflected it. Martinez was a question mark at the beginning of the season, but he ended up the ace by the end of the season. Lance Lynn was the reason the team went after Leake, after he had Tommy John surgery early in the off-season. What does 2017 hold for them?

Leake seems to be a little better in 2017, even is most of his numbers look close to the same. Let’s compare him to the other numbers on Fangraphs:

Projection	G	Record	IP	K	BB	FIP	ERA	WHIP	WAR
Nyrdcast	29	11-10	179.1	122	43	4.05	3.98	1.27	2.0
Depth Charts	31	11-11	186.0	125	42	4.02	4.06	1.29	2.3
Steamer	31	11-11	186.0	125	42	4.02	4.06	1.29	2.3
Bill James	30	10-10	180.0	121	37	N/A	3.80	N/A	N/A

It’s pretty surprising how close the different systems are; close to .500 in 180ish innings and allowing almost 4 runs per 9.

Initially I was happy with the numbers from my system; but when I compared them to 2016, they weren’t too much different. His record is a game and half better, but his FIP goes up and his ERA drops. His WHIP is slightly lower. But everything else is pretty close.

Hopefully the defense will make these numbers better than projected.

Lynn will be a more interesting case after missing 2016. Here are the projections:

Projection	G	Record	IP	K	BB	FIP	ERA	WHIP	WAR
Nyrdcast	30	12-10	184.1	144	57	3.37	3.18	1.29	3.1
Depth Charts	23	8-8	130.0	117	46	3.93	3.88	1.29	1.9
Steamer	23	8-8	130.0	117	46	3.93	3.88	1.29	1.9
Bill James	31	11-9	180.0	167	65	N/A	3.70	N/A	N/A

Again there isn’t much of a difference between the systems. My system (and Bill James’) like the record better and my system has a much better FIP, ERA, and WAR.

I think Lynn will have a slow start to the season, but will bounce back from Tommy John well. He’ll be close to his previous form and will eat a good deal of innings (not to 2014 levels though).

Finally, we have Martinez. The new ace for the team was rewarded with a contract extension. How does he respond?

Projection	G	Record	IP	K	BB	FIP	ERA	WHIP	WAR
Nyrdcast	31	12-9	176.1	142	63	3.63	3.60	1.29	3.0
Depth Charts	32	13-11	202.0	192	72	3.53	3.52	1.27	3.7
Steamer	32	12-11	199.0	189	71	3.53	3.52	1.27	3.7
Fans	33	16-9	205.0	200	73	3.38	3.25	1.25	4.0
Bill James	31	13-10	201.0	186	72	N/A	3.54	N/A	N/A

My projections are way below what I think he’s going to do; that’s because the system is still seeing his relieving time from 2014 and 2015, and he has 3 comps that spent more than half their age 25 season as relievers. I actually believe Martinez will be closer to 18-9 with a 3.11 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 32 starts; I also think he’ll have 181 strikeouts, 71 walks, and a WAR closer to 6.0.

So my system says he’ll be a lesser pitcher than the other systems while my gut says he’ll be better.

Like the hitters I’ve looked at so far (Fowler, Wong, Grichuk), the pitchers have been generally disappointing. If they all play to these numbers, Cardinal fans are looking at a long season.