Monday Afternoon GM: A Long Week

The Cardinals had an interesting, long week. A 3-game series sweep at home against the Padres made everyone optimistic going into a long series in Chicago; the Cardinals were able to salvage 3 wins in the 5 game series.

The Cardinals outscored the Padres 14-7. The team played a well rounded game; they hit, pitched, and played defense. Paul Goldschmidt continued his amazing stretch into May and the final game saw Nolan Arenado break of his month-long slump. Adam Wainwright pitched the middle game of the series and probably had his best start of the season, striking out 10 over 7 shutout innings. Not to be out done, Dakota Hudson decided he needed his best start of the season to finish out the series.

That high from the sweep didn’t last long; the Cubs took game one Thursday 7-5. The Cardinals would take a game each of the next 3 days, but lost game one of Saturday’s doubleheader. The Cardinals scored 32 over the 5 games while giving up 25. The issue again was a big offensive day followed by little scoring; 14 runs on Friday, 1 run during game one on Saturday. The biggest downsides were a rough outing by Matthew Liberatore and the end of Goldschmidt’s hitting streak at 25 games. The rookie fielders continued to contribute; Brendan Donovan had a game winning hits in extra innings on Saturday and Sunday nights.

Up Next
A smaller week after the marathon they just completed. The Cardinals play 3 in Tampa Bay and come home for 3 against the Reds. The Cardinals haven’t faced the Rays this season and are 2-1 against the Reds.

NL Central Standings

Team	W	L	Pct	GB	Last 10	Streak
Milwaukee Brewers	33	23	.589	—	4-6	L3
St. Louis Cardinals	32	23	.582	0.5	7-3	W2
Pittsburgh Pirates	24	28	.462	7.0	7-3	W2
Chicago Cubs	23	32	.418	9.5	4-6	L2
Cincinnati Reds	18	35	.340	13.5	5-5	L3

The Brewers had a bad week and have let the Cardinals get within a game; these teams should be battling it out all season. The Pirates have gone on a run all of the sudden, but they’ll continue to sit around .500 for the season.

At their current pace, the Cardinals are in line for a 94-68 record, approximately 4 wins ahead of my prediction.

Run Differential
The Cardinals have scored 269 runs this season and allowed 215, giving them a differential of +54. That would put them at a 33-22 record, one game better then they currently are. Essentially, their record is in line with their run differential. If they continue at this pace, they are in line for a 97-65 record.

Cardinal News
Where to start this week…

• The Cardinals have produced their third straight MLB Player of the Month: Goldschmidt. Tyler O’Neill was the player of the month for last September, followed by Arenado in April; both players have struggled since winning their respective months, although Arenado looks like he might be coming out of his funk.
• There were a flurry of roster moves before the Cubs series: Liberatore and Kodi Whitley were sent down; Zack Thompson and Oviedo were called up. Jake Woodford was the 27th man for the doubleheader, but sent right back down after the game.
• Kramer Robertson can be moved to the former Cardinal section. He was designated for assignment on Friday when Thompson was added to the 40-man roster; the Braves claimed him off waivers over the weekend. Robertson really didn’t have a future with the team, with the emergence of Donovan in front of him and prospects like Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker behind him.
• The Cardinals placed Corey Dickerson on the IL on Sunday with a left calf strain; he left the first games of Saturday’s doubleheader with the injury. This might a be a relief for the team, as they have both O’Neill and Dylan Carlson on rehab assignments; the team would have had to make a decision on cutting Dickerson (and the rest of his $5M salary) or sending down one of Donovan, Juan Yepez, or Nolan Gorman (assuming that Lars Nootbaar will be sent down for the other rehabbing player). Jake Walsh was called up for his roster spot.

Rehab News
Here’s a quick look at the numbers for guys on rehab assignments:

• Dylan Carlson @ Springfield: 3 G, 0-7, 1 BB, 1K, .000/.125/.000
• Tyler O’Neill @ Memphis: 3 G, 5-13, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 4 K, .385/.429./692
• Jack Flaherty @ Springfield: 1 G, 3.0 IP, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP

Cardinal Rumors
No rumors over the last week.

The System
Here’s the rundown of the system…

• Memphis Redbirds: 31-23
  • Up Next: vs. Durham Bulls (29-25)
  • Alec Burleson was named the Cardinals Player of the Month for May. Check out our scouting report here.
• Springfield Cardinals: 20-31
  • Up Next: @ Midland RockHounds (23-28)
  • Gordon Graceffo was named the Cardinals Pitcher of the Month for May; he split the month between Springfield and Peoria.
• Peoria Chiefs: 21-30
  • Up Next: vs. Quad Cities River Bandits (19-32)
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 20-29
  • Up Next: @ Tampa Tarpons (22-29)
• Minor League Baseball released their top player and pitcher at each level; the Cardinals were shut out this month after having 3 players named last month.

Former Cardinals
A quick look at former Cardinals in the news…

• J.A. Happ (LHP, Free Agent) retired.
• Jason Heyward (OF, Cubs) was reinstated from the IL; he was out with Covid symptoms.
• Lance Lynn (RHP, White Sox) has made 2 rehab starts and will make 1 more this week before the White Sox decide what to do with the pitcher; it’s expected he’ll be activated for his season debut.
• Mike Mayers (RHP, Angels) was designated for assignment; he cleared waivers and was assigned to Triple A. He could have rejected the assignment based off service time, but did not.
• Ian McKinney (LHP, Mariners) was released by the organization; he was pitching with Triple A Tacoma. Over 2 seasons in Triple A, McKinney has struggled to a 7.22 ERA with a 15.86% K and 12.75% BB rates.
• Ildemaro Vargas (IF, Free Agent) signed a minor league deal with the Nationals and was assigned to Triple A; he recently refused a minor league assignment by the Cubs.
• T.J. Zeuch (LHP, Free Agent) signed a minor league deal with the Reds after being released by the Cardinals a early last week.

Do the Cardinals Struggle After “Spending Their Runs” in 1 Game?
The Cardinals seem to have spurts where they score 10 runs, the follow it up with 1-2 in the next game. It’s gotten to the point where you expect an L the day after a high scored. But I’ve found that’s not the case.

The Cardinals have a positive run differential, which is stated above. In fact, it’s one of the highest in the league; 4th in the MLB and 2nd in the NL.

It’s also safe to assume that they more the score, the higher their win percentage is; this proved to be correct:

RS/G	W	L	W%
0	0	4	0.000
1	1	6	0.143
2	2	4	0.333
3	2	3	0.400
4	4	2	0.667
5	6	2	0.750
6	3	1	0.750
7	4	1	0.800
8	2	0	1.000
9	1	0	1.000
10+	7	0	1.000
Total	32	23	0.582

The Cardinals have had 10 games this season where they’ve scored 8 or more runs. How did they do the following day?

To start, we need to know that they average 4.89 runs per game this season.

In those 10 games following 8+ runs, they have a 0-run game, 2 1-run game, 3 2-run games, a 6-run game, 2 7-run games, and an 8-run game. That gives them an average of 3.60 runs per game; so they do score fewer runs after a big output by 1.29 runs less then average. That’s significant because they only allow an average 3.91 runs per game; that puts them at an instant disadvantage.

Their record in those games is a surprising 5-5. This is supported in their run differential which is 0.

Based off this, it’s safe to assume the Cardinals have a 50/50 shot of winning the game after scoring 8+ runs.