Monday Morning GM: I Left My Bat In San Francisco

A successful road trip is .500, and the Cardinals did that. After taking 1 game from the Royals at Busch, they split a 2-games series with them in KC, then split a 4-game series in San Francisco. The Giants are a good team and definitely shows some of the Cardinals flaws.

The Cardinals out scored the Royals 12 to 7 in the 3 games, but all 7 allowed game in the opener in KC, where they shutout the Cardinals. Dakota Hudson had that start and gave up 3 in 4.2 innings; while the bullpen allowed more of the damage, the offense really could have kept Hudson in the game had they shown up.

The Giants series was more of the same. The Cardinals scored 20 while allowing 20; the problem was 17 of the allowed runs were in the 2 losses. The difference in this series was the Cardinals spread out their runs a little more then they have recently. Steven Matz was rocked in his start on Saturday; people are ready to give up on him, but he’s only had 2 bad starts out of his 6 (see more below).

The star of the week was Juan Yepez; after going hitless in his first 3 games in Memphis, he raised his slash line to .279/.323/.651 with 9 homers. His first week in the Majors ended with a slash line of .474/.500/.789 with 3 doubles and his first MLB Homer. He saw some DH time, but also saw a couple of starts in the corner outfield. With Yepez playing this well off the bat, it could spell the end of the Corey Dickerson experiment; Yepez is getting the at bats that Dickerson was expected to get when he was signed.

The down side was the team continues to use Albert Pujols against righties. Pujols splits show exactly what the Cardinals had to of known when they signed him: he can’t his righties. The Dodgers used him almost exclusively against lefties last year and he was successful. The Cardinals have allowed him to take 30 plate appearances against righties and he’s slashing .080/.233/.080; he’s slashing .438/.471/.875 in 17 plate appearances against lefties. Under no circumstance should Pujols start a game against a right handed pitcher; it’s trickier once relievers enter the game, but he should be pinch hit for in late games where the team is within a couple of runs.

Standings
Here are the updated standings.

Team	W	L	Pct	GB	Last 10	Streak
Brewers	19	10	.655	—	7-3	L2
Cardinals	16	12	.571	2.5	5-5	L2
Pirates	11	16	.407	7.0	3-7	L1
Cubs	9	18	.333	9.0	2-8	L5
Reds	5	23	.179	13.5	2-8	W1

The Cardinals are on pace for a 93-69 record if they continue as this winning percentage. That’s 3 wins above my projection. It’s crazy to see that the Reds are the only team with a win in their last few games.

Pythagorean Record
The Cardinals have scored 121 runs and allowed 97, for a differential of +24. That should give them a 17-11 record, meaning they are a game behind where they should be; that’s to be expected since the standard deviation is 3 wins. If they continue on this pace, they should finish with a 97-65 record.

Cardinal News:

Jack Flaherty threw a bullpen in San Francisco.

Edmundo Sosa went on the Covid IL; he, along with 4 staffers, tested positive for the virus. Yepez was recalled to take his roster spot. He’ll be out for about 10 days, unless he is fever free for 24 hours, passes 2 tests, and is cleared by the team physicians and the MLB/MLBPA Joint Committee. A few days later, it was announced that Adam Wainwright also tested positive.

Matz spent a few days on the Bereavement List; Packy Naughton replaced him on the roster. Matz returned to pitch Saturday, taking the place of Wainwright, allowing Naughton to stay with the team.

Naughton was sent down the day before to get the active roster down from 28 to 26 men. Along with Naughton, righty Aaron Brooks was designated for assignment; Brooks cleared waivers and is with Memphis. Brooks struggled in his brief stint with the team.

The System
Here’s a quick look at how the minor league system is doing.

• Memphis Redbirds: 14-10
  • Nolan Gorman was named the International League Player of the Month for April after leading the league in total bases (60), home runs (11), slugging percentage (.811) and OPS (1.201).
• Springfield Cardinals: 9-12
  • Moises Gomez was named the Texas League Player of the Month for April where he lead the league in most offensive categories; Gomez also took the TL Player of the Week honors in back-to-back weeks and was named the Cardinals Player of the Month in April.
• Peoria Chiefs: 12-9
  • Michael McGreevy was named the Midwest League Pitcher of the Month for April. He had a 25:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings.
  • Gordon Graceffo was named the Cardinals Player of the Month in April.
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 9-12

Former Cardinals:
Quick hits on players who have been in the Cardinals system.

• Kyle Barraclough (RHP, Angels) joined the Angels this past weekend after they purchased his contract from Triple A Salt Lake. Barraclough pitched 10 games last season with the Twins.
• Chris Ellis (RHP, Orioles) is done for the season after having surgery on his shoulder. Ellis looked sharp in his first start this season before he got knocked around in his second, due to the injury.
• Dexter Fowler (OF, Blue Jays) was granted his release by the organization. He was at Triple A but only had 12 plate appearances as he was still coming back from his ACL tear from last season. When he wasn’t added to the roster on May 1st, he requested his release.
• Jose Godoy (C, Twins) is back with the Twins. The catcher has bounced between Triple A and Minnesota multiple times; it feels like he’s been on each one of these columns.
• Carson Kelly (C, Diamondbacks) is on the IL; Kelly has been out since May 5th with an oblique strain.
• Dominic Leone (RHP, Giants) came off the Covid List in time to face the Cardinals over the weekend.
• Carlos Martinez (RHP, Giants) did opt out of his contract and became a free agent. It was a short free agency though, as he’s already signed with the Red Sox on a minor league deal. The Red Sox initially signed with the Red Sox as an amateur, but had the contract voided because he had a fake birth certificate; he signed with the Cardinals after serving a 1-year suspension.
• Luis Perdomo (RHP, Brewers) had his contract purchased by the Brewers; Perdomo replaced Keston Hiura on the active roster. Perdomo missed all of last season to Tommy John surgery.
• Stephen Piscotty (OF, Athletics) is also going on the IL with a calf strain; it’ll be his second IL stint this season (Covid).
• Joe Kelly (RHP, White Sox) was activated from the IL on Sunday; he’s been out all season with a bicep strain.
• Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, Free Agent) is expected to have a showcase in the next few weeks to show he’s healthy. I don’t expect the Cardinals to be in attendance, as they have a solid bullpen already.
• Michael Wacha (RHP, Red Sox) was placed on the IL with intercostal irritation. Wacha has pitched well this season in 5 starts, but missed him last start due to his injury.

More on Matz:
Like I mentioned, 2 bad starts have killed Matz’s ERA. For the season, he has a 7.01 ERA. In those other starts, he has a 2.17 ERA. If you look at his FIP vs his ERA, you see that the FIP shows he’s closer tot he 2.17 then the 7.01; his FIP is 3.81.

It’s hard to see what was different with his pitches in start 1 and 6 versus the other 4 starts. Usage doesn’t show much.

First off, he’s thrown a slider, but on 19 times (in starts 1, 4, and 6), so it’s not really showing up. It’s pretty much a non-issue, even if it’s been used in the 2 bad starts.

His sinker has always been his main pitch and the results this year have been pretty consistent; the only outlier is all 3 homers on Sunday’s start came off the sinker, which is the only 3 homers he’s allowed with the pitch this season. It’s sat consistently between 93.5 and 94.7 MPH in all 6 starts. The spin has consistently been between 2200 and 2300 RPM in all his starts.

His other pitches have been pretty consistent too. His change has sat between 84.3 and 85.4 with spin between 2227 and 2371; if there is a trend, it’s the spin has dropped from 2371 to 2368 to 2229 to 2227 over his last 4 starts. His curve has sat between 76.7 and 79.0 with spin between 2471 and 2271; again, his spin rate has dropped over the last 4 starts, from 2434 to 2411 to 2292 to 2271. Both of those declines in spin would be worrisome if each start got worse. Start 5 (May 2) was arguable his best start of the season, where he pitched 6 innings of 4 hit, no run ball.

The only thing we can tell from his 6 starts is he’s mixing his pitches from start to start and there really isn’t an outlier at this time. I do think Saturday’s start may have been impacted by his bereavement leave; we don’t know the details (and probably shouldn’t), but losing a relative could have been on his mind. And it’s always a good story when a pitcher overcomes the death of a loved one, but it’s a lot of stress and distraction to try to play through it.

The other thing to remember about Matz is he’s only making $10M this season and $44M over the life of his 4 year contract. That’s a bargain for a guy who’s supposed to be our #4 starter. According to Fangraphs, he was worth $22.1M for his 2.8 WAR; he’s already proved to have a $2.1M value this season; even if he only pitches like he has, we’re looking at a $10.5M value. I expect him to be better than that for the season.