Monday Morning GM: An Uneven Offense

It wasn’t a week everyone was hoping for, as the Cardinals struggled to a 3-4 record on their return home. They lost 2 of 3 to the hot Mets, then split the four games series with the Diamondbacks. Amazingly, they had a run differential of 0; It’s amazing because their four loses included 2 shutouts and 2 2-runs scored games. They scored 25 in their 3 wins and allowed 13. Like years past, their offense is very uneven; they continue to have games where they score 8, then 2 over the next 2.

The pitching has some suspect moments too. Adam Wainwright hasn’t looked all that sharp since his opening day start; he’s allowed 12 earned over his last 4 starts and his FIP rise over all 5 starts (1.09, 2.41, 3.09, 3.23, 3.46). I think he’ll figure things out in the next couple of starts and look more like his opening day start.

Standings
Here are the updated standings.

Team	W	L	Pct	GB	Last 10	Streak
Brewers	15	8	.652	—	7-3	L1
Cardinals	12	9	.571	2.0	5-5	W1
Pirates	9	13	.409	5.5	4-6	L1
Cubs	9	13	.409	5.5	3-7	W1
Reds	3	19	.136	11.5	1-9	L6

After 3 weeks, things are starting to normalize. The bottom of the division is right and we’ll be seeing the Cardinals and Brewers battle it out for first place.

Pythagorean Record
After 21 games, the Cardinals have scored 89 runs and allowed 70 for a differential of +19. That gives them an expected record of 13-8, 1 game worse then they are right now; since they are within the 3 game standard deviation, there really isn’t anything to learn from the one game. At this pace, they are on track for a 99-63 record over 162 games.

Cardinal News
MLB has announced slot values for the 2022 draft; the Cardinals have $6,842,300 to spend for the first 10 rounds without penalty. Their first pick (1.22) is worth $3,180,600, their second (2.59) is $1,245,600, and third (3.97) is worth $629,500.

Nolan Arenado was suspended for 2 games for his antics in the Mets series; he appealed and it was reduced to 1 game. He served it this past Saturday.

Jack Flaherty is still expected to be back in Mid-May; he threw off the mound last week for the first time. No word on how it went or how he was feeling afterwards.

Rumor Mill
No rumors at this point.

The System
Here’s a quick look at how the minor league system is doing.

• Memphis Redbirds: 14-10
  • After giving up 10 runs in his first 3 games, Matthew Liberatore hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 games (7.0 innings in each start). Liberatore has a 16:3 strikeout to walk ratio in those 2 starts and sits at 34:6 for the season. Liberatore is going to be pushing hard for a roster spot, like his good friend Nolan Gorman (more on him later).
  • Johan Oviedo is not faring as well. Over 5 starts, Oviedo 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He does have 21 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. The Cardinals did him no favors by continually running him out last season when he obviously wasn’t ready, and it doesn’t appear that he’s gotten back on track yet.
• Springfield Cardinals: 9-12
  • The power is slowly starting to come for Jordan Walker; he’s hitting .329, but he’s now up to 3 doubles, a triple, and a homer. His slash line is now .329/.434/.443, which is impressive for the 19 year old.
• Peoria Chiefs: 12-9
  • Michael McGreevy continues his hot start. While he only has a 1-0 record, he’s got a 1.27 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. He also has a 26:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 28.1 innings. Expect a promotion by mid-season.
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 9-12

Former Cardinals
Quick hits on players who have been in the Cardinals system.

• There are a few former Cardinals that have minor league opt outs with their current clubs. Matt Carpenter (3B, Rangers) has decided not to opt out of his minor league deal with the Rangers; he’ll remain at Triple A. Shelby Miller (RHP, Yankees) and Carlos Martinez (RHP, Giants) are both able to opt out and haven’t made a decision yet.
• Dominic Leone (RHP, Giants) has landed on the Covid IL this past weekend. He’ll be out 10 days, unless he’s fever free for 24 hours, has 2 passed Covid tests, and gets approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA Joint Committee.
• Jose Godoy (C, Twins) has been demoted to Triple A; he was up with Minnesota as insurance for the banged up Gary Sanchez.
• Jon Jay (OF, Free Agent) announced his retirement. Jay was drafted by the Cardinals in the second round of the 200X draft. He was a mainstay of the roster from 20XX-20XX, winning a championship in 2011. The team traded him to the Padres for Jedd Gyorko in 20XX. He also played for the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Angels.
• Ryan Sherriff (LHP, Phillies) was transferred to the 60-Day IL for his shoulder strain; he’s eligible to return to the team June 6th. His 40-man spot was needed, which led to the roster move.

When Is the Right Time to Call Up Gorman?
The Cardinals were going to be patient with Gorman coming into the season. They got Albert Pujols and Corey Dickerson to split DH duties and allow Gorman some extra time at Memphis. But due to the lack of production against right handed pitchers and the excellent start of Gorman, they are rethinking things.

Gorman is slashing .321/.372/.769 in 86 plate appearances at Memphis, where he is 4.4 years younger then the average age. He’s hitting a homer in 12% of his plate appearances. And all of this was after going hitless in his first 3 games.

If there is one thing to worry about is his 35% strikeout percentage. He needs to cut that down to be effective in the majors.

There are some hurdles to clear before he can be added; first off, he’s not on the 40-man. The Cardinals will need to DFA someone; Dickerson is the most obvious candidate, but the team might not consider his $5M a sunk cost yet. There is a precedence for eating money; they team did it with Brett Cecil recently, and his salary was higher then Dickerson’s.

The other issue is playing time. He’ll see plenty of at bats against right handed pitchers while DHings; he’s not going to get to see much time in the field. Everyone is clamoring for Tommy Edman to move back to shortstop, but it’s not that easy. Edman has played 3 games there last year and 17 total for his career. He also didn’t see any time at short during spring training. Moving him back there will take a little time; it’ll also hurt the defense in the short term. An Edman/Gorman middle infield is inferior to Paul DeJong/Edman in both positions. Edman was a gold glover at second, but it’s not a sure thing that his defense is at the same level at a more demanding position.

Keeping DeJong on the bench won’t help the team either; his .145/.242/.255 line won’t play as a bench player too. Unfortunately there won’t be many teams that would be interested in DeJong, unless they see something that the Cardinals aren’t able to. I also don’t see the Cardinals cutting him either, as he’s got more money remaining then Dickerson does.

Personally, I want to see Gorman up; I don’t want it to stunt his grow as a player though. If he can’t be in the field 4-5 days a week, it’s not the right time.