Monday Afternoon GM: The Cardinals Secret HOF Pitching Staff

Another mixed bag this week, as the Cardinals went 1-3 against the Mets, then turned around and swept the Pirates in 3 games. While that is a winning road trip, the Mets series was very disappointing as they should have at least split with them after blowing an extra inning lead on Thursday.

The Mets outscored the Cards 23-17; unlike the previous week, the Cardinals took the close game and lost the others by 7, 2 and 1 runs. Hicks was the starter in the big loss, but he wasn’t the worst pitcher of the day. He allowed 2 runs in 4 innings of work; at this point, you would be hoping that Jordan Hicks would be able to get into the 5th inning. He threw 82 pitches to get that far. I’m ready for them to pull the plug on the Hicks experiment when Flaherty is back. Jake Walsh got lit for 4 runs without getting an out, and T.J. McFarland gave up 5 more in the 8th.

The Pirates series was much better; they outscored the Bucs 28 to 11, thanks for 18 runs on Sunday. In that blowout, we got another Sunday position player on the mound. This time it was Yadier Molina. Yadi threw the 9th inning, allowing 4 runs on 4 hits, 2 of which were homers; he chalked up his lack of command to the rain. He threw to Albert Pujols for his warmup pitches. No word on if the Pirates found it as amusing as the Giants did with Pujols.

We also got the MLB Debuts of Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore. The team has to be happy with both. Liberatore went 4.2 innings, allowing 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks; he struck out 3. On the surface, the numbers look questionable; if you look at his pitches, there is promise. He threw mainly a sinker and curve, but mixed in a 4-seam, slider, and change. The curveball looked good (even though one was hit out for a homer), but the sinker was very hittable (.500 batting average against it). Once he gets that under control, his other pitches will look better. More on Gorman later.

Week preview
The Cardinals will have 2 against the Blue Jays and 4 against the Brewers; they are off on Wednesday. The Cardinals haven’t faced the Blue Jays this year; they are 2-2 against the Brewers.

NL Central Standing

Team	W	L	Pct	GB	Last 10	Streak
Brewers	26	15	.634	—	6-4	L1
Cardinals	23	18	.561	3.0	6-4	W3
Pirates	16	24	.400	9.5	3-7	L3
Cubs	16	24	.400	9.5	5-5	W1
Reds	12	28	.300	13.5	6-4	W1

The Brewers have been able to stay atop the division, but their schedule has been pretty easy compared to the Cardinals. The Cardinals have played the Mets and Giants twice in the last few weeks, while the Brewers have faced the Reds, Marlins, Braves, and Nationals. The Brewers will have to be good down the stretch to keep their lead, and I don’t know if their hitters are that much better then the Cardinals.

As of today, the Cardinals are on pace for a 91-71 record.

Pythagorean
The Cardinals have scored 200 runs this season and allowed 155, for a run differential of 45. That should put their record at 25-18, or 2 losses worse then they are; it’s within the 3 win deviation, so they are playing pretty close to where they should be. Their run differential puts them on pace for a 100-62 record.

Cardinal News
A quick look at the Cardinal news…

• Steven Matz left his start on Sunday without getting an out; it was a good thing Liberatore was send down because a “fresh” Angel Rondon was able to come up and eat some innings. Matz got an MRI last night, but the Cardinals haven’t released the results at the time of writing. He is headed to the IL with a shoulder impingement.
• Which means we’ll see Liberatore back up sooner then later. His start wasn’t bad, but he struggled with location. It’s his first start, so don’t write him off yet. Look for him to build off this and improve when he goes again on Saturday.
• Dylan Carlson is joining Matz on the IL with left hamstring soreness; he left Saturdays game, then missed Sunday. Lars Nootbaar gets the call in his spot; they are already down Tyler O’Neill and had to play Brendan Donovan in right field. I’m expecting we’ll see more Tommy Edman and Donovan in the outfield over Corey Dickerson.
• With Gorman and Liberatore being added to the roster, the team announced they have designated T.J. Zeuch for assignment. Zeuch hasn’t seen time with the Cardinals this season and has been a potential DFA for a while. O’Neill was placed on the 10-Day IL for Gorman’s promotion. Walsh was optioned to Memphis to make room for Liberatore on the active roster.
• And this just in…Molina is headed to the bereavement list and the Cardinals are promoting catcher of the future Ivan Herrera; I’m hoping we get to see Herrera get the starts while Yadi is out to see how close he is to being ready.

Rumors
No real rumors out there right now, but if Matz is out for a substantial period, the team could start getting involved in the starting pitching market; a rental innings eater would be the best…someone like Sean Manaea from Oakland would fit this bill. There is also a possibility they could try to add to their outfield depth, but I believe if they go this route it’ll be a minor league deal since they have options right now.

The System

• Memphis Redbirds: 22-20
• Springfield Cardinals: 16-23
• Peoria Chiefs: 17-22
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 14-25

The system is struggling, but the Cardinals aren’t worried about final records; they are worried about how guys are progressing. With the injuries at the Major League level, guys are getting shuffled to fill in at other levels. If players are getting better, a system under .500 isn’t a big deal.

Former Cardinals
A quick look at former Cardinals in the news…

• Jason Heyward (OF, Cubs) was placed on the Covid IL. He’ll be eligible to come off after 10 days unless he meets the established criteria to be removed earlier. Another former Cardinal, Rafael Ortega, will take over centerfield for Heyward.
• Lance Lynn (RHP, White Sox) was moved to the 60-Day IL because of his torn knee tendon from spring training. He hasn’t started a rehab stint yet, so this won’t impact his timeline of returning, which has to be after June 6. His 40-man spot went to Lucas Giolito, who has returned from Covid.
• Carlos Martinez (RHP, Red Sox) didn’t last long with the Red Sox; he was released from his minor league contract after 2 bad starts (4.1 IP, 10 R). He’ll be looking to latch on with another team, almost guaranteed on a minor league deal.
• Ildemaro Vargas (IF, Cubs) was designated for assignment over the weekend; Vargas provides little offense and his roster spot was needed for another catcher. He has the right to decline a minor league assignment if that’s the route the Cubs want to go.

Gorman’s start
While it’s only been 16 plate appearances, Gorman has looked pretty good. He’s only had a strikeout and has walked twice; both are surprising given his minor league numbers. It’s also surprising that he hasn’t hit a homer yet; he is getting solid contact and has 5 hits.

We’ll see how he adjusts as he gets more sliders thrown to him. Right now, he’s seen 40.9% fastballs, 36.4% off speed (change), and 22.7% breaking (curve, slider). With him hitting .500, I’m thinking he’ll see fewer fastballs and more sliders as the pitchers start to get more video of him. In the minors, the slider has been the big issue.

So far the fielding has been good. There really hasn’t been too much of a test of range yet, so the jury is still out if second is his long term future. He’s at least going to be serviceable, which puts the pitchers at a disadvantage compared to last year. Having a Paul DeJong/Edmundo Sosa tandem at short with Edman at second is much better for a groundball staff then Edman/Gorman up the middle. We won’t be able to see the long-term impact of the defense until at least August.

Check back later this week as I breakdown the bullpen usage this season.