2021 Cardinal Projections: Harrison Bader

Like I’ve done for the last few years, I’m working through my Cardinals projections for the upcoming season. The process this year is trickier; normally I take a 3 year average of the players stats for a portion of the projections, but this past season saw the 60 game season, so there was a little extra math.

My projections take into account the already mentioned 3 year average and similar players. On Baseball Reference, they list comparable players by career and by age; I factor in what those players did at the same age as the player I’m projecting. Again, if the comp was from 2020, I had to do a little math to equal it out to a 162 game season.

Next up is most polarizing player on the Cardinals: Harrison Bader.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB/ATT	K	BB	Avg/OBP/SLG	ISO	WAR
3 Yr	134	337	57	79	18	3	12	35	11/14	117	37	.233/.328/.409	.176	2.8
Comps	90	249	33	63	12	2	8	33	5/7	59	25	.254/.324/.420	.165	0.9
Projection	112	293	45	71	15	3	10	34	8/11	88	31	.242/.327/.416	.174	1.8

Comps: Jim Hickman, Roger Repoz, Laynce Nix, Carl Everett, Tony Tarasco, Jose Bautista, Michael A. Taylor, Peter Bourjos, Vince DiMaggio, Greg Norton, Mikie Mahtook, Bill Renna, Pete Whisenant*, Jim Dyck*, Ken Hunt, Mark Smith, Ken Wood, Justin Maxwell*.

* Did not play in age 27 season.

You’ll notice that the comps don’t have the playing time; it’s because most of his comparable players moved to more of a part time role by this point of their careers. That could very well happen this season. Unfortunately, Bader was the third best offensive player on the Cardinals in 2020; that shouldn’t be the case in 2021.

Just a note for Cardinal fans: the Bourjos age 27 season was his season with the Cardinals. That has to instill a lot of faith.

Baders defense is what will keep him on the team; once he’s no longer a starter, he’ll be the 4th outfielder/defensive replacement.

How do his numbers compare to the other projections?

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	Avg	OBP	SLG	BABIP	ISO	WAR
Nyrdcast	112	334	10	71	34	.242	.327	.416	.316	.174	1.8
THE BAT X	133	599	21	77	66	.233	.317	.412	.303	.179
THE BAT	133	600	21	76	64	.231	.316	.405	.302	.174
ATC	138	490	16	67	50	.230	.323	.405	.306	.176
FGDC	131	567	19	71	62	.230	.317	.403	.309	.173	1.9
Steamer	129	507	17	56	58	.232	.320	.402	.306	.170	1.8
ZiPS	138	440	15	61	46	.228	.314	.404	.312	.176	1.8

These other systems believe he’ll get more playing time then my system does; mine shows better overall numbers considering the playing time difference. The other big difference is homers and RBIs; I don’t see him hitting a ton of balls out and I don’t think he’ll have a lot of RBI opportunities. That said, I show a higher slugging because my system sees more doubles and triples proportionally then the other systems.

I think Bader starts the season in center, but he’ll be bumped after struggling out of the gate. I think we’ll see more Dylan Carlson and/or Lane Thomas in center this season.

Other projections:
Nolan Arenado
Paul Goldschmidt
Yadier Molina

Don’t forget to check the Cardinal Salary Matrix and the Cardinal Prospect Tracker for updates.