# Trying To Understand the Cardinals 2024 Rotation

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/trying-to-understand-the-cardinals-2024-rotation/
- Published: 2023-11-21T14:20:41-06:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

### **The Cardinals have added Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to the rotation, but do they make it better?**

Coming into the off-season, John Mozeliak stated the Cardinals would be bringing
in 3 starting pitchers; he backtracked a few weeks later to 2 starters, but did 
we really think the Cardinals would get 3? And a couple weeks into free agency, 
it looks like we have 2 pitchers.

The Cardinals and right-handed started [Lance Lynn](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br)
[agreed on a 1 year on Monday](https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1726650146753237261),
worth $10.0M deal with a club option for 2025 at $3M/$1M buyout. They followed it
up with [a 1 year deal with](https://x.com/BNightengale/status/1727037558675378409?s=20)
[Kyle Gibson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gibsoky01,gibson004kyl&search=Kyle+Gibson&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br);
he’ll get $12.0M with a 2025 option.

([The Salary Matrix has been updated](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2023/11/cardinals-salary-matrix-2024-edition/))

I was happy with the Lynn signing. Prior to 2023, he was 123-89 with a 3.52 ERA,
3.61 FIP, and 118 ERA+; his 9.1 k/9 is low, but had an almost 3 to 1 K/BB ratio;
he had a 31.4 bWAR over that period, or 2.6 bWAR per season. The Cardinals got 141
games and a 5.36 ERA out of 9 pitchers not named [Jordan Montgomery](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=montgjo01,montgo001jor&search=Jordan+Montgomery&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br);
5 of those 9 ([Dakota Hudson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
[Matthew Liberatore](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liberma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
[Jake Woodford](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodfja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
[Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
and [Drew Rom](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romdr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br))
all had ERAs above 5.00.

His 2023 was more of a struggle; he was 13-11 with 5.73 ERA, 5.53 FIP, and 99 ERA
+ while sporting a -0.8 bWAR. His strikeout and walk rates weren’t impacted. According
to Fangraphs, he was worth about $4M (he was worth $15.1M in 2022).

What bit him was his career 0.9 HR/9 jumped to 2.2 in 2023. He pitched in homer 
friendly parks for most of his starts; the White Sox see Guaranteed Rate Field sit
at 104 park factor for homers, while Dodger Stadium is at 122 (Anything over 100
favors the hitters). Pitching half his games at Busch Stadium will help, as it has
a 90 park factor for homers. History is on his side; he’s a career 40-20 pitcher
in 87 games at Busch, while sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Adding Gibson to the mix, I’m starting to wonder if the team wants to see if they
can compete with last year’s rotation. [Johnny Cueto](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br)
is available to take on the Wainwright role of aging pitcher that is struggling 
to compete still.

Realistically, the Cardinals will bring in another guy; they are still tied to Montgomery,
[Sonny Gray](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
and [Yoshinobu Yamamoto](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yamamo004yos&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br)
on the free agent market and there is speculation they could be in on [Tyler Glasnow](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glasnty01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br)
from Tampa Bay. Even adding one of these guys, you have 4 starters with 2023 ERAs
of 5.73 (Lynn), 4.73 (Gibson), 4.78 ([Miles Mikolas](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mikolmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br)),
and 3.86 ([Steven Matz](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matzst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
who was helped by some late season success before going out with an injury).

These moves individually were fine; unfortunately every roster move builds on the
previous move. Adding both Lynn and Gibson does bring you a couple of innings eaters,
but are either of those guys any different than what you already have in Mikolas?
No. Lynn gets a few more strikeouts, but they were all below average, back of the
rotation starters who ate innings. And really, Matz hasn’t been that far off in 
his time with the Cardinals, other than eating innings.

Why not try guys like [Lucas Giolito](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/giolilu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
[Eduardo Rodriguez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodried05,rodried01&search=Eduardo+Rodriguez&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
or [Luis Severino](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/severlu01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br)?
They have a little more upside and youth than Lynn and Gibson. They’ll also cost
a little more too.

They aren’t passing on these guys because of price tag; I think they are passing
on them hoping that the next crop of prospect pitchers will have an elite arm in
them and guys like Lynn and Gibson will be stop gaps until they are ready. [Tink Hence](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hence-000mar&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
[Gordon Graceffo](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gracef000gor&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
[Michael McGreevy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcgree000mic&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
and [Cooper Hjerpe](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hjerpe000coo&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br)
could be some good pitchers. Liberatore, [Andre Pallante](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pallaan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
[Alex Reyes](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=reyesal02,reyes-001ale&search=Alex+Reyes&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-11-21_br),
and Hudson were supposed to be those types of pitchers too. I think the Cardinals
have shown recently that they are struggling to develop elite pitching prospects
and overvalue their farm system.

If the Cardinals don’t have 2 better pitchers added to the rotation, things will
look bleak for the team, both in terms of baseball and with the fanbase.

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