# The Total Cost of the Correa Hack

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-total-cost-of-the-correa-hack/
- Published: 2017-01-31T18:00:14-06:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

Yesterday, [Major League Baseball announced that the Cardinals would have to forfeit their first 2 draft picks (56 and 75 overall) and $2M to the Astros](http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/cardinals-to-send-two-draft-picks-to-astros-pay-2mm-fine-for-data-breach-scandal.html)
for Chris Correa hacking their system. The penalty comes after months of investigation
and a [46 month jail sentence for Correa](http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/chris-correa-cardinals-46-months-prison-astros.html).

The general MLB public is mixed on the penalty – half think it was a slap on the
wrist for the Cardinals and the other half think this is a major setback for the
Cardinals.

But what is the real impact to the Cardinals?

The financial penalty is self explanatory. The Cardinals can absorb a $2M hit. The
draft picks are different.

For 2017, the 56th pick has a slot value of $1,122,400 and the 75th pick has a slot
value of $730,800 (total of $1,853,200 in slot money). Factor in the loss of pick
19 with a slot of $2,953,700 for the signing of [Dexter Fowler](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fowlede01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
and the Cardinals are left with $2,072,300 to spend on their first 10 rounds in 
the draft; that’s the lowest amount of all teams.

Losing the pool money goes beyond not signing 2 more guys; the Cardinals have traditionally
tried to go under slot with picks in the second through 10th rounds so they can 
go over slot with their first round pick and those after the 10th round. Without
those picks and pool money, they’ll struggle to possibly buyout high school players
college commitments.

Now there is the question of players. Both picks are in the second round; pick 56
was their normal second round pick and the 75th pick was their Competitive Balance
pick. The Cardinals have made 58 picks in the second round of the draft. 25 of those
players have made the majors. Of those 25, 14 have positive WARs and 8 of them have
been worth 2 Wins or more. The top 6 is:

 |  Player |  Pos |  Overall |  WAR |  
 |  [Jerry Reuss](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reussje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  LHP |  30 |  35.6 |  
 |  [Dan Haren](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harenda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  RHP |  72 |  35.3 |  
 |  [Todd Zeile](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zeileto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  C |  55 |  19.2 |  
 |  [Dan Plesac](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plesada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  LHP |  41 |  17.6 |  
 |  [Jon Jay](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jayjo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  OF |  74 |  12.0 |  
 |  [Rick Ankiel](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ankieri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  LHP |  72 |  8.7 |

The average WAR for second round players by the Cardinals is 5.2.

Basically, it would have been about a 50/50 shot of a second rounder making it to
the Majors for the Cardinals; still, those odds are better than most draft picks,
especially as the draft goes on.

Another way to think about it would be timing of those picks making the Majors. 
I’ve had someone say to me it’s not a huge deal since the Cubs “own the division.”
The average major league player takes 4-6 years from the time they are drafted to
reach the highest level. If you look at the Cubs’ 40-man roster right now, 68% of
their roster is scheduled to hit free agency in those years, including [Anthony Rizzo](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rizzoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Kris Bryant](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bryankr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
and [Jon Lester](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-).
If their roster stayed static (which we know it won’t), those drafted players would
help the Cardinals as a bulk of the Cubs roster could possibly leave. This might
be a moot point as the Cubs have the revenue to continue to supplement their roster
as players leave.

Lastly, if you look at recent Cardinal teams, you find that a majority of their 
teams’ value comes from drafted players. In 2016, the Cardinals had a team WAR of
40.1; 15.4 of that was from drafted players, or 38% of their value. Next closest
was 11.5 from non-drafted free agents (aka international signees).

The 15.4 WAR was the lowest they’ve had from drafted players since 2008, which they
had 11.2 WAR. The 38% of their value from drafted players was also lowest since 
the same year and the first time it was below 50% of their roster since 2009. This
shows that team is reliant on the draft for building their roster.

While 2 draft picks and a couple of million dollars might not sound like much for
a Major League team, this penalty will hurt the Cardinals more than most think.

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## Comments

### By: James G. Campbell

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-total-cost-of-the-correa-hack/#comment-835
- Published: 2017-02-05T18:26:56-06:00

You wonder if the Cardinals knew what was going to happen so they signed Dextor 
Fowler to soften the blow. Thinking about it they could of signed him last year 
but never did. But this year they were all in. Just seems like they knew they were
going to lose some draft picks so might as well give the pick to someone else and
not the Astros. Just something I was thinking about.

### By: Eugene Tierney

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-total-cost-of-the-correa-hack/#comment-836
- Published: 2017-02-05T21:27:22-06:00

I think that and the spending spree in the international market might have had something
to do with it.