# The John Gant Problem

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/
- Published: 2021-06-24T16:55:54-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

Coming into the 2021 season, it appeared that [John Gant](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gantjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
had finally earned his shot at the rotation. And he started the season on fire, 
at least when you looked at the surface numbers; he had a great ERA and kept the
Cardinals in the game for 5 innings each start.

But the walks…

Due to his walk rate, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) did not support the
low ERA.

[[

Since he was giving up a ton of walks, you see that his FIP is above his ERA for
each start. The ERA is lower because the runners were not scoring until the month
of June; the timing is interesting since the MLB has cracked down on foreign substances
in the middle of the month. So, has Gant been using a substance?

If you look at his spin rates, it was possible.

[[

You would assume that if he was using something early in the season and stopped 
over the last few starts that his spin rate would have dropped; according to [Baseball Savant](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/john-gant-607231?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb),
it would appear that is has. At least in his start against the Tigers; he didn’t
use his slider, which had the most average spin of any of his pitches. His curve
dropped 99 rpm, his sinker 51, and his 4-seam 24; his cutter didn’t change and he
got an additional 4 rpm on his change.

It’s also possible that he wasn’t based of the fact that his spin rates fluctuated
so much from start to start; it’s not uncommon for a 100 rpm drop from start to 
start for him. Look at where his curve ball was in this first start compared to 
his most recent one; there is a 123 rpm drop and his last start wasn’t even the 
lowest rpm count of the season (May 12, 2360 rpm). If they continue to drop, or 
the fluctuation disappears, we might be able to tell a little better.

Another thing I found was his pitch usage also changed.

[[

He started the season with his sinker and change up, but switched the change up 
for a slider, then a 4-seam, went back to the change, then to a brand new cutter
that wasn’t used until May 18th. It’s arguable that once his cutter got in the mix,
his pitching started to deteriorate. His June 1st start was pretty good (6.0 innings,
0 ER, 3 BB), but his ERA for the following 4 starts was over 12.

There is really not a trend as to why he’s been so inconsistent. He’s getting less
Whiff % on his curve, change, and slider compared to last season. His fastball velocity(
both 4-seam and sinker) is also down, but that’s probably due to starting versus
relieving; he can add a few MPH when he goes for shorter stints.

My only guess for the June struggles is tied to usage; he’s had one season of over
100 innings (2018, 114.0 IP) and the last 2 seasons out of the bullpen have been
66.1 and 15.0. He’s currently at 64.2 innings in less then 3 months.

The problem for the Cardinals is they can’t move him out of the rotation; there 
isn’t a candidate to replace him, and [Johan Oviedo](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oviedjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
has been worse in the rotation. You also have [Carlos Martinez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martica04,martica03,martica02,martin019car&search=Carlos+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
who’s struggling in his last few starts. The Memphis Redbirds roster has some talent,
but they aren’t any more ready for the Majors then Oviedo; here are the 4 starters
with at least 6 starts:

| Pitcher | Starts | Record | ERA | K | BB | 
| [Zack Thompson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=thomps009zac&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 7 | 0-6 | 8.60 | 27 | 22 | 
| [Matthew Liberatore](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=libera000mat&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 6 | 2-3 | 4.26 | 28 | 9 | 
| [Tommy Parsons](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=parson000tom&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 6 | 1-4 | 6.15 | 43 | 15 | 
| [Angel Rondon](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rondoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 6 | 0-3 | 5.65 | 26 | 9 |

Liberatore is the best option, but he’s currently on Memphis’s restricted list as
he’s pitching with Team USA; while he’s the best option, his numbers aren’t earth
shattering.

There aren’t really options to move from the bullpen. [Ryan Helsley](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/helslry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
is struggling, [Alex Reyes](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=reyesal02,reyes-001ale&search=Alex+Reyes&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
is entrenched as the closer (and walking more batters then Gant), and [Genesis Cabrera](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabrege01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
is too important to the struggling bullpen. While Gant has had success in the past,
it’s a tall order to expect he’d be as good as Cabrera has been. [Wade LeBlanc](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leblawa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
might be an option, but his numbers as a starter over the last couple of seasons
have been uninspiring.

Even if the team were to trade for a starter ([here were some options I previously wrote about](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021/06/could-the-cardinals-match-up-with-these-teams/)),
Oviedo is the first man out. Then you have to decide if Martinez or Gant would work
better in the bullpen, or hurt you less in the rotation, if they acquire a second
pitcher.

No matter what, this rotation is not made to go deep in the post season as is, and
needs a major upgrade to go with [Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
and [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
ASAP.

### Share this:

 * [  Facebook ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=facebook)
 * [  X ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=x)
 * [  Email ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20The%20John%20Gant%20Problem&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nyrdcast.com%2Fthe-john-gant-problem%2F&share=email)
 * [  LinkedIn ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=linkedin)
 * [  Mastodon ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=mastodon)
 * [  Nextdoor ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=nextdoor)
 * [  Pinterest ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=pinterest)
 * [  Reddit ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=reddit)
 * [  Tumblr ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-john-gant-problem/?share=tumblr)

### Like this:

Like Loading…

### _Related_