# The Cardinals Should Look At Dinelson Lamet

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/the-cardinals-should-look-at-dinelson-lamet/
- Published: 2022-08-04T09:52:31-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

Of the [most shocking moves of the trade deadline](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2022/08/the-mlb-trade-deadline-the-winners-losers-and-deals/)
was the Brewers dealing [Josh Hader](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
to the Padres for [Taylor Rogers](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rogerta01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Dinelson Lamet](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lametdi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Robert Gasser](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gasser000rob&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
and [Esteury Ruiz](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruizes01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
As I’ve said elsewhere, it makes good baseball sense; they traded a closer for another
closer with the same amount of team control, a young pitcher, and 2 prospects. Then
the Brewers surprised the baseball world again by [designating Lamet for assignment](https://twitter.com/CyrtHogg/status/1554908986356408320)
on Wednesday.

Brewers’ President of Baseball Operations David Stearns commented on the situation
by saying that Lamet was added to the deal to “help balance out the deal.” When 
explaining the DFA, he said “As subsequent transactions played out, the roster fit
became a little tougher. We are hopeful we will be able to keep him in our system.”

Lamet will not pass through waivers; he probably won’t even make it to the Cardinals.
He’s a young player and under team control until after 2024. He’s going to appeal
to rebuilding clubs and contenders.

Lamet was a mildly regarded prospect coming up ([John Sickels had him 8th in the Padres system in 2017](https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/24/15682902/dinelson-lamet-rhp-san-diego-padres))
with solid numbers and potential. He started 21 games in 2017 and did OK as a rookie.
He missed 2018 and improved in 2019. Then he broke out in 2020, where he finished
4th in [Cy Young](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
voting. While Lamet was great in 2020, he’s struggled since then. In 2020, he had
a 2.09 ERA, 2.48 FIP, and 0.86 WHIP in 69.0 innings. Since then, he has a 5.46 ERA,
4.17 FIP, and 1.60 WHIP in 59.1 innings.

Part of his problem is injuries. He missed the end of 2020 with a bicep issue. Then
in 2021 he miss time for bicep and elbow issues. He hasn’t been the same since. 
And it’s shown in his slider. He was demoted by the Padres earlier this year, and
he spent a week working on the slider with the Major League staff prior to going
down. Through video, [he found some differences in his mechanics and grip](https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2022-07-09/padres-notes-lamet-returns-as-stammen-hits-il-tatis-inching-forward)
between 2020 and then.

Those differences show in the Statcast data. In 2020, his slider was worth -18 runs
and had a hard hit rate of 27.8%, a slugging percentage against of .120, and a K%
of 51.4%. Those numbers jumped to -8 runs and 31.6%, .297, and 41.5% in 2021 and
to +3 runs and 47.1%, .483, and 43.8% in 2022. That -18 run value was the best in
baseball of all pitchers and all pitches; the +3 ranks 1668 for 2022.

Part of the issue with his slider is the movement. The vertical movement went from
0.2 in 2020 to -2.4 in 2021 to -4.2 in 2022. [Fangraphs](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-data-about-sliders/)
looked at vertical movement and found that vertical movement between -1.4 and 1.5
had a RV/100 (Run Value per 100 pitches) of -.31. When the vertical movement is 
less then -1.4, RV/100 drops to -.10. Lamet’s RV/100 jumps from -3.2 in 2020 to 
1.8 in 2022; while drastic, it confirms that his vertical movement is an issue.

His horizontal movement is also a problem; it changed from 0.5 in 2020 to -3.7 in
2021 to -6.1 in 2022. While the difference in the horizontal movement is significant,
I don’t know if it’s really an issue by it self. Had his horizontal movement increased
while the vertical decreased, the pitch wouldn’t have dropped off so quickly; since
both dropped, the effectiveness of the pitch went away.

Flat out, [a good slider is hard to hit](https://tht.fangraphs.com/why-are-sliders-so-hard-to-hit/),
and if Lamet can find his slider, he’ll be a good pitcher again.

The Cardinals can help with that. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to work with each
other; back in 2014, newly acquired [Justin Masterson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/masteju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
worked with [Shelby Miller](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millesh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
on his grip, [which made Miller unhittable late into that season](https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/other/miller-credits-masterson-with-refining-his-new-sinker).
[Andy Benes](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benesan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
[picked up a split-finger](https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2002-10-13-0210130294-story.html)
from [Chuck Finley](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/finlech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
in 2002 that save his career.

If the Cardinals could have [Mike Maddux](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddumi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
work with Lament, it might help. They could have him talk with [Andre Pallante](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pallaan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Giovanny Gallegos](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallegi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Ryan Helsley](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/helslry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
or [Miles Mikolas](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mikolmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral);
all have sliders with run values of -3 or better.

If Lamet could reinvent his slider, he could be the perfect back of the rotation
starter and a guy that could be relied on for a couple of years, which is what the
Cardinals were looking for at the trade deadline.

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