# Should the 2011 Cardinals Provide Hope for the 2021 Team?

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/
- Published: 2021-09-03T11:41:59-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

One thing you will hear out of half the Cardinals fanbase is the reminder that the
2011 Cardinals were 8.5 games back of the division and the Wild Card on September
1st. Unfortunately, it’s tough to catch lightening in bottle twice like that. The
question is, is it possible?

The 2021 Cardinals have played 132 games as of September 2nd, and sit with a record
of 68-64, 12.5 games back of the Brewers for the division and 2.5 back of the second
Wild Card. They have scored 544 runs and allowed 565, for a run differential of -
21. The 2011 Cardinals played 138 games through the same date, with a record of 
73-65; at game 132, their record was 69-63. They scored 650 runs and allowed 606
in those 138 games, for a run differential of 44; for the same 132 game period, 
it was 617 scored and 576 allowed, for a run differential of 41. When you compare
the 2 teams through 132 games, the 2011 Cardinals were a better team; while they
had given up 11 more runs then the 2021 team, the also scored 73 more. The 2021 
team also had a -62 swing in run differential compared to 2011. Point to 2011.

The 2011 Cardinals had an easier schedule too. They played 2 games against the sub-.
500 Reds, 3 against the first place Brewers, 3 against the Wild Card leading Braves,
3 against the bad Pirates, 4 against the first place (and 98 win team at the time)
Phillies, 3 against the struggling Mets, 3 against the tanking Cubs, and 3 against
the bigger tanking Astros. Other then 2 series against the Cubs, the remaining schedule
for this year’s Cardinal team is against the contenders: 3 series against the Brewers
and 1 each against the Dodgers, Reds, Mets, and Padres. Another point for 2011.

How did the lineups look? Here are the starting 9 for games on September 2nd for
both teams along with their slash lines.

|  | 2011 |  | 2021 |  | 
| Pos | Player | Slashline | Player | Slashline | 
| C | [Yadier Molina](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .294/.333/.417 | Yadier Molina | .251/.294/.361 | 
| 1B | [Albert Pujols](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .294/.366/.552 | [Paul Goldschmidt](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .287/.355/.493 | 
| 2B | [Ryan Theriot](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/theriry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .273/.321/.336 | [Tommy Edman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/edmanto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .266/.317/.403 | 
| 3B | [David Freese](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freesda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .306/.354/.443 | [Nolan Arenado](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .256/.313/.492 | 
| SS | [Rafael Furcal](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/furcara02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .219/.284/.327 | [Paul DeJong](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejonpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .198/.289/.383 | 
| LF | [Matt Holliday](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .301/.397/.547 | [Tyler O’Neill](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oneilty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .273/.343/.503 | 
| CF | [Jon Jay](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jayjo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .297/.346/.417 | [Harrison Bader](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baderha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .244/.310/.408 | 
| RF | [Lance Berkman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .283/.399/.554 | [Dylan Carlson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carlsdy01,carlso001dyl&search=Dylan+Carlson&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | .261/.344/.419 | 
| SP | [Chris Carpenter](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carpech02,carpech01&search=Chris+Carpenter&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  | [J.A. Happ](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) |  |

If you give points to the teams for best OPS (on base plus slugging), then the 2011
wins 5-3 (Edman, Arenado, and DeJong for the 2021 team). Overall, the 2011 Cardinals
had 6 starters and 5 bench players with OPS+ over 100; the 2021 team 4 starters 
and 4 bench players at that level (Edman is right at 100). Like the runs scored 
and run differential showed above, the 2011 Cardinals offense is superior to that
of this year.

Let’s switch to the rotations.

|  | 2011 |  |  |  | 2021 |  |  | 
| Pitcher | Starts | ERA | FIP | Pitcher | Starts | ERA | FIP | 
| Chris Carpenter | 34 | 3.45 | 3.06 | [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 26 | 2.97 | 3.50 | 
| [Jake Westbrook](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/westbja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 33 | 4.66 | 4.25 | [Kwang Hyun Kim](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimkw01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 20 | 3.23 | 4.12 | 
| [Jaime Garcia](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=garcija02,garcia006jai&search=Jaime+Garcia&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 32 | 3.56 | 3.23 | [Carlos Martinez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martica04,martica03,martica02,martin023car,martin019car&search=Carlos+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 16 | 6.23 | 4.75 | 
| [Kyle Lohse](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lohseky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 30 | 3.39 | 3.67 | [John Gant](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gantjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 14 | 3.42 | 5.11 | 
| [Kyle McClellan](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccleky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 17 | 4.19 | 4.92 | [Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 14 | 3.08 | 4.09 | 
| [Edwin Jackson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 12 | 3.58 | 4.01 | [Johan Oviedo](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oviedjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 13 | 4.91 | 5.26 | 
| [Lance Lynn](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 2 | 3.12 | 2.88 | [Wade LeBlanc](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leblawa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 8 | 3.61 | 5.57 | 
| [Miguel Batista](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/batismi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 1 | 4.60 | 5.17 | [Jon Lester](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 6 | 5.12 | 4.73 | 
| [Brandon Dickson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicksbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 1 | 3.24 | 5.55 | J.A. Happ | 6 | 4.30 | 5.37 | 
|  |  |  |  | [Miles Mikolas](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mikolmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) | 4 | 4.41 | 3.52 | 
|  |  |  |  | [](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodfja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)[Jake Woodford](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=woodja01,wood--002jak&search=Jake+Wood&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 3 | 5.08 | 5.69 | 
|  |  |  |  | [Daniel Ponce de Leon](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/ponceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)* | 2 | 6.39 | 6.16 |

* Also pitched in bullpen; these are full season numbers

The 2021 has used an additional 3 pitchers in 30 fewer games; only Adam Wainwright
has the potential to get to 30 starts for this year’s team. The 2021 rotation is
sitting at a 4.06 ERA, 4.41 FIP, and 7.1 WAR. The 2011 rotation had a 3.81 ERA, 
3.69 FIP, and 11.4 WAR. When you look at the names in the rotation, the 2011 end
of season rotation looks a lot stronger then where the Cardinals are right now (
Wainwright, Kim, Lester, Happ, and Mikolas)

The bullpen is another issue for the 2021 team. The bullpen has a 4.21 ERA, 4.15
FIP, and 2.9 WAR (largely from [Genesis Cabrera](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabrege01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
and [Giovanny Gallegos](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallegi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
who account for 2.6 WAR). You also have no set closer and an issue with wildness(
12.3 BB%). The 2011 bullpen had a 3.73 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and 0.6 WAR. They also only
walked 8.6% of their batters.

When you look at the bigger picture of pitching, the 2011 team posted better team
ERA, FIP, WHIP, BB/9, and HR/9; the 2021 team currently has a better H/9 and K/9.
Overall, the 2011 team had better pitching.

So a team that had an easier schedule with better pitching and hitting would have
the easier path to the post-season, so this comparison is not fair to either team;
it puts a lot of pressure on an inferior team and gives the fan base some false 
hope. As of today, [Fangraphs](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/)
gives the Cardinals a 0.0% chance of winning the division and a 5.5% chance of winning
a Wild Card spot, with a 0.1% chance of winning the World Series. While Fangraphs
is saying [there’s a chance](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA), it’s 
not a good one; but I’ll happily eat crow if they can pull it off.

### Share this:

 * [  Facebook ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=facebook)
 * [  X ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=x)
 * [  Email ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Should%20the%202011%20Cardinals%20Provide%20Hope%20for%20the%202021%20Team%3F&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nyrdcast.com%2Fshould-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team%2F&share=email)
 * [  LinkedIn ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=linkedin)
 * [  Mastodon ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=mastodon)
 * [  Nextdoor ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=nextdoor)
 * [  Pinterest ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=pinterest)
 * [  Reddit ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=reddit)
 * [  Tumblr ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/should-the-2011-cardinals-provide-hope-for-the-2021-team/?share=tumblr)

### Like this:

Like Loading…

### _Related_