# Red Bird Droppings: Qualifying Offers, Wainwright, Thomas

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/red-bird-droppings-qualifying-offers-wainwright-thomas/
- Published: 2022-10-18T13:57:29-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

Red Bird Droppings is my new column looking at Cardinals’ news and rumors; I’m hoping
to run this 2 or 3 times per week, depending on the news. It’ll be quick hit style,
with lots of other links to check out.

**Qualifying Offer Set**
[Joel Sherman of the New York Post](https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1581008090857877504)
is reporting the Qualifying Offer for the 2022 off season is set at $19.65M, meaning
if a free agent accepts a qualifying offer from their current team, their 2023 salary
will be that amount; if they decline, their current team will receive a draft pick
as compensation. Teams will still be able to re-sign their players if they decline
the offer, but they lose the draft pick.

The current players lined up for free agency are [Corey Dickerson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Yadier Molina](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Albert Pujols](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Jose Quintana](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quintjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
and [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
We know Pujols and Molina are retiring, so no QO there. Dickerson and Quintana will
probably not receive QOs because their next deals will be much less then almost 
$20M per season. Wainwright will also probably not receive the QO for the same reason,
but his end of season struggles.

**Adam Wainwright’s Retirement Question**
The big question of the free agents is
will Wainwright play in 2023? I think we received a hint last week.

> Want to clear a few things up as I didn't pitch like I wanted to down the stretch
> and feel the need to explain. On Aug 28th I was hit in the knee by a comebacker
> against Atlanta. Without knowing it, after that game my stride length got shorter
> by almost a foot. Timing was thrown
> — Adam Wainwright (@UncleCharlie50) [October 12, 2022](https://x.com/UncleCharlie50/status/1580215316344627200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

> That had never been a problem for me in the past. My stride length has always 
> been very consistent. Because my timing was so badly off, my front arm started
> to try and create power by pulling. And when that happens you just pull yourself
> off target.
> — Adam Wainwright (@UncleCharlie50) [October 12, 2022](https://x.com/UncleCharlie50/status/1580215841597321216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

> Front side pulling, back arching, head leaning. All new things for me that weren't
> normal fixes. It's why I want able to generate any power with my arm. Fortunately
> we got it fixed one adjustment at a time, but the season was over. Let me say 
> this, it's my fault
> — Adam Wainwright (@UncleCharlie50) [October 12, 2022](https://x.com/UncleCharlie50/status/1580216335623020549?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

> I didn't stay diligent enough with my film work to catch it immediately. It wasn't
> something I had struggled with before. The zip and crispness to my stuff returned
> as soon as we locked in on the problem. What I was attributing to dead arm was
> an awful delivery.
> — Adam Wainwright (@UncleCharlie50) [October 12, 2022](https://x.com/UncleCharlie50/status/1580216909278359552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

> The end of the season should have been way different for me, and who knows what
> happens if I'm sharp down the stretch. I feel terrible about it. Y'all deserved
> better. My team deserved better. I owed an explanation… so there you go. Go [@Cardinals](https://x.com/Cardinals?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
> — Adam Wainwright (@UncleCharlie50) [October 12, 2022](https://x.com/UncleCharlie50/status/1580217683001643008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

Since Wainwright has figured this out and has a “competitor” mentality, I think 
he’s planning on pitching again in 2023 to show he’s better then how he pitched 
in September. His month to month numbers support his claim too; he went from a 2.50/
1.06 ERA/WHIP in August (his second best month of the season) to 7.22/1.92 in September.

From a baseball perspective, I kind of want Wainwright to call it a career; it won’t
be right seeing him pitch every 5th day without Molina there, plus what if there
was a bigger issue then his pitch stride distance? At the same time, he was pretty
good prior to September and would be an asset in the rotation, especially if he’s
working with the younger pitchers.

Either way, I don’t see Wainwright dragging out the decision.

**Arizona Fall League**
The Cardinals have some big name prospects at the Arizona
Fall League, including top prospects [Jordan Walker](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=walker000jor&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
[Masyn Winn](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=winn--000mas&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral),
and [Tink Hence](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hence-000mar&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
Walker and Hence have received praises from Keith Law (paywall – the gist is [Walker is amazing but still needs work on off-speed pitches](https://theathletic.com/3703139/2022/10/18/mlb-prospects-arizona-fall-league/);
[Hence is hitting 95-96 with his fast ball, has a plus change, and an average curve](https://theathletic.com/3691320/2022/10/14/arizona-fall-league-scouting-kumar-rocker/)).

The big story yesterday wasn’t any of them; it was [Connor Thomas](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=thomas005con,thomas003con&search=Connor+Thomas&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
[Thomas struck out 10 in 4 innings of work yesterday](https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/connor-thomas-strikes-out-10-in-afl?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage)
for the Salt River Rafters; he became the 6th pitcher to have double digit strikeouts
in the AFL, along with [Kyle Zimmer](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmeky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
2014), [Tommy Hanson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hansoto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
2008 twice), [Phil Hughes](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
also 2008), [Jered Weaver](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
2005), and [Bill Murphy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphbi02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
also 2005).

Thomas isn’t a big name prospect yet, but he’s could be moving up the rankings soon.
He spent 2022 in Memphis, where he put up pedestrian numbers; he noticed hitters
were sitting on his sinker and slider, so he’s working on a cutter. As a result,
he’s lowered his WHIP from 1.57 with Memphis to 1.34 with Salt River, while seeing
his K/9 jump from 7.3 to 12.1.

**Quick Links**

 * [Viva El Birdos](https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2022/10/17/23408298/coming-up-with-a-potential-trade-for-sean-murphy)
   looks at trade scenarios for [Sean Murphy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=murphse01,murphy010sea&search=Sean+Murphy&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
 * Both [Paul Goldschmidt](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
   and [Nolan Arenado](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
   are up for the [Hank Aaron Award for best hitters in the league](https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/paul-goldschmidt-nolan-arenado-among-8-nl-nominees-for-2022-hank-aaron-award/article_04428ab3-cd14-5415-b631-3197598d6462.html).
 * [Redbird Rants](https://redbirdrants.com/2022/10/17/cardinals-st-louis-extends-front-office-members-michael-girsch-randy-flores/)
   look at the extensions of Michael Girsch and [Randy Flores](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=florera01,flores002ran&search=Randy+Flores&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
 * [Just Baseball](https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/st-louis-cardinals-offseason-outlook/)
   runs down what the Cards need to do this off-season.

I’ll be back later in the week with more droppings.

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