Prospect Profile: Connor Thomas

Tuesday afternoon, the Cardinals added right handed pitcher Connor Thomas to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule V Draft. Thomas was a mid-level prospect prior to this season, but broke out in the Arizona Fall League, where he took top pitcher honors. What can we expect from the pitcher?

Let’s start from the beginning.

Thomas played high school ball Tift County HS in Tift, GA; he was undrafted out of high school even though he was a Perfect Game All-American runner up and Southeast All-Region second team. He ranked #9 in Georgia and #64 nationally by Perfect Game for left handed pitchers in the 2016 signing class. He went on to play at Georgia Tech University. He worked mainly out of the bullpen as a freshman for a partial season (academically ineligible), but moved to the rotation as a sophomore. His first year in the rotation led to All-ACC honors and received multiple pitcher of the week honors. He was even better in 2019 as a junior and became the ace of the GT staff. His fastball sat in the low 80s with a plus slider and average changeup.

He pitched well enough that the Cardinals drafted him in the 5th round (155 overall) in 2019; he signed a week later for slot ($340,000) and started his pro career with the Short Season A State College Spikes. He pitched well enough to be promoted to Lo-A Peoria before the season ended. His first year as a pro ended with a 3.77 ERA in 43.0 innings.

Like all minor leaguers in 2020, he didn’t pitch in a game. It didn’t impact him too much for 2021, as he pitched 4 games in Double A Springfield before being promoted to Triple A Memphis. The numbers showed he held his own with a 3.39 ERA over 122.0 innings. He pitched primarily in the rotation and had a solid 8.6 K/9 over both levels.

2022 started out worse; in a full season in Memphis, he pitched to a 5.47 ERA in 135.0 innings. His K/9 dropped to 7.3 while his H/9 went from 9.9 to 11.5. The Cardinals sent him to the Arizona Fall League to see if he was worth a 40-man spot; he proved that he was. He went to the AFL with a new cutter, thanks to Mike Maddux and Jason Isringhausen; that cutter helped him pitch to a 1.75 ERA in 25.2 innings in what is considered a hitter’s league.

Pitches
Thomas has a low-90s fastball with good sinking action; it sits around 90-91 normally. The sink has kept his groundball rate north of 60% as a pro.

He also has a plus slider that sits in the mid-80s. It’s his out pitch and he routinely throws it for strikes.

His changeup is average, but it’s good enough to get right handed hitters out and limit any platoon advantage.

There is little info on the cutter right now; the pitch comes out of his hand similar to his fastball and slider, so hitters struggle to see what’s coming. No word on the velocity. He threw is a lot in the AFL to get a feel for it.

He has great command (MLB.com says the best in the system), good control (2.5 BB/9 in the minors), and works quickly on the mound.

Projection
His ceiling is probably a #4 starter; floor of an average middle reliever. He doesn’t have the blazing fastball of an ace or closer, but his pitch mix, command/control, and groundball tendencies means he’s good enough to be on an MLB pitching staff.

ETA
He’ll be up in 2023 for sure. If he has a strong spring, he’ll be in the mix for the bullpen; if he struggles, he’ll probably be one of the first guys to Memphis. I give put his chances of starting in St. Louis 50/50. That said, if the team wants to work with the cutter more, he’ll be at Memphis in the rotation to continue to work on it. He’ll finish the season in the bullpen for the Cardinals.

He could be the Andre Pallante of 2023.