# Monday Morning GM: Best in Baseball

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/monday-morning-gm-best-in-baseball/
- Published: 2019-04-29T10:30:05-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

After a dismal start against the Brewers and Padres, who expected the Cardinals 
to be the best team in baseball heading into the second month of the seasons? Sure,
the team has pitching depth, a solid bullpen, and an improved lineup, but after 
that start it was hard to imagine them sitting atop the Central (And all of baseball):

 | Team | W | L | W% | GB | 
 | Cardinals | 17 | 10 | .630 | — | 
 | Cubs | 14 | 12 | .538 | 2.5 | 
 | Brewers | 15 | 14 | .517 | 3.0 | 
 | Pirates | 12 | 14 | .462 | 4.5 | 
 | Reds | 11 | 16 | .407 | 6.0 |

And a quick look at run differential. The Cardinals have scored 149 runs and allowed
121, for a differential of +28. That translates to a 16-11 record; the team have
1 more win than they deserved.

This weeks thoughts:

 * [Alex Reyes](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesal02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   is headed to extended spring training to continue stretching out as a starter.
   If you didn’t see, Reyes [broke the pinky finger on his glove hand](https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/alex-reyes-finds-new-way-to-go-on-il-by/article_d6e76e2f-45b9-52f1-90f7-c31cf4c364ae.html)
   when he punched a wall after a frustrating outing with Memphis. Unfortunately,
   every outing has been a little frustrating for Reyes; he’s notched 9 strikeouts
   and 9 walks in 10.1 innings. He’s struggling with command and needs to work out
   the kinks. You can see that in his minor league WHIP over the last 2 (limited)
   seasons; his 1.26 WHIP is more than twice what it was in his rehab stint last
   year (0.61 in 23 innings). He’ll continue to throw at Palm Beach, but won’t catch,
   run, or bat until he’s healed.
 * I was curious to see the roles that [Harrison Bader](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baderha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   and [Tyler O’Neill](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oneilty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   would step back into when they came of the IL; happily, they have been moved 
   the bench while [Dexter Fowler](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fowlede01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   and [Jose Martinez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martijo08,martijo06,martijo04,martin072jos,martin056jos,martin059jos,martin076jos,martin037jos,martin073jos&search=Jose+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   continue their hot streaks. Neither are hitting with much power (2 homers and
   10 doubles between them), but both are hitting over .300 and Fowler is getting
   on base at a .419 clip with a 1.3 WAR. I’ll be happy to see Bader coming in during
   the 5th or 6th to cover center and shifting one of these 2 out of the game.
 * Bader has a lot of prove; he didn’t hit much last season and is carrying a .190
   average to start this season. With [Kolten Wong](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wongko01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   coming back to reality, it’ll be hard to this team to start both of these defensive
   first players with the current lineup. Only Martinez, Fowler, and [Paul DeJong](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejonpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   are hitting over .300 and only DeJong, [Paul Goldschmidt](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   and [Marcell Ozuna](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ozunama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   have an OPS over .900. If you can’t get more out of [Matt Carpenter](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   you can’t have Bader and Wong in the lineup.
 * While the team does have pitching depth, they need more out of the rotation. 
   They are averaging just over 5 innings per start; they need to get up over 6 
   so they don’t crush the bullpen down the stretch. We’ve see out pitching staff
   struggle late in the season in the past because they were overworked early in
   the season. The rotation ERA is also concerning; only [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   has a sub-4.00 ERA ([Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   is close at 4.06). Not only that, every starter has a FIP that is higher than
   their ERA, showing they should have given up more damage than they did.
 * This FIP thing ties into the staff’s inability to avoid homers, which is happening
   across baseball. The record for homers allowed through the month of April was
   set in 1996 by the Detroit Tigers; the Cardinals sit second in MLB at 51 (behind
   the horrible Baltimore Orioles pitching staff that has allowed 71 homers). Just
   for the record, the Cardinals allowed 19, 24, and 22 homers in the first month
   of the last 3 seasons.
 * I’m currently reading [The Shift](https://www.amazon.com/Shift-Next-Evolution-Baseball-Thinking-ebook/dp/B079J5M49Y/ref=sr_1_5?keywords=the+shift&qid=1556550799&s=gateway&sr=8-5)
   by Russell Carleton and one chapter is about effective bullpen usage and how 
   the closer role goes against that. I was happy to see on Sunday that [Jordan Hicks](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksjo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   pitched to 1 hitter in the 8th and he was pulled after the Cardinals added 3 
   runs to their lead. The team saw that the low leverage innings of a 5 run lead
   wasn’t worth using their best reliever; Hicks will be ready to pitch tonight 
   after the low pitch count. The move would have been a little more heavily criticized
   if [Dominic Leone](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonedo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   gave up more than 2 runs before [John Gant](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gantjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
   shut the door.

I still have more articles planned, but hopefully I’ll be able to actually work 
on getting them live this week. We’ll also have a big surprise next week, so check
back.

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