# Monday Morning GM: An Uneven Offense

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/monday-morning-gm-an-uneven-offense/
- Published: 2022-05-02T12:02:35-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

It wasn’t a week everyone was hoping for, as the Cardinals struggled to a 3-4 record
on their return home. They lost 2 of 3 to the hot Mets, then split the four games
series with the Diamondbacks. Amazingly, they had a run differential of 0; It’s 
amazing because their four loses included 2 shutouts and 2 2-runs scored games. 
They scored 25 in their 3 wins and allowed 13. Like years past, their offense is
very uneven; they continue to have games where they score 8, then 2 over the next
2.

The pitching has some suspect moments too. [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
hasn’t looked all that sharp since his opening day start; he’s allowed 12 earned
over his last 4 starts and his FIP rise over all 5 starts (1.09, 2.41, 3.09, 3.23,
3.46). I think he’ll figure things out in the next couple of starts and look more
like his opening day start.

**StandingsHere are the updated standings.

| Team | W | L | Pct | GB | Last 10 | Streak | 
| Brewers | 15 | 8 | .652 | — | 7-3 | L1 | 
| Cardinals | 12 | 9 | .571 | 2.0 | 5-5 | W1 | 
| Pirates | 9 | 13 | .409 | 5.5 | 4-6 | L1 | 
| Cubs | 9 | 13 | .409 | 5.5 | 3-7 | W1 | 
| Reds | 3 | 19 | .136 | 11.5 | 1-9 | L6 |

After 3 weeks, things are starting to normalize. The bottom of the division is right
and we’ll be seeing the Cardinals and Brewers battle it out for first place.

**Pythagorean RecordAfter 21 games, the Cardinals have scored 89 runs and allowed
70 for a differential of +19. That gives them an expected record of 13-8, 1 game
worse then they are right now; since they are within the 3 game standard deviation,
there really isn’t anything to learn from the one game. At this pace, they are on
track for a 99-63 record over 162 games.

**Cardinal NewsMLB has announced [slot values for the 2022 draft](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2022-bonus-pools-pick-values?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage);
the Cardinals have $6,842,300 to spend for the first 10 rounds without penalty. 
Their first pick (1.22) is worth $3,180,600, their second (2.59) is $1,245,600, 
and third (3.97) is worth $629,500.

[Nolan Arenado](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
was suspended for 2 games for his antics in the Mets series; he appealed and it 
was reduced to 1 game. He served it this past Saturday.

[Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
is still [expected to be back in Mid-May](https://twitter.com/jmjones/status/1519787342302691330);
he threw off the mound last week for the first time. No word on how it went or how
he was feeling afterwards.

**Rumor MillNo rumors at this point.

**The SystemHere’s a quick look at how the minor league system is doing.

 * Memphis Redbirds: 14-10
    - After giving up 10 runs in his first 3 games, [Matthew Liberatore](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=libera000mat&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
      hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 games (7.0 innings in each start). Liberatore
      has a 16:3 strikeout to walk ratio in those 2 starts and sits at 34:6 for 
      the season. Liberatore is going to be pushing hard for a roster spot, like
      his good friend [Nolan Gorman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gorman000nol&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
      more on him later).
    - [Johan Oviedo](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oviedjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
      is not faring as well. Over 5 starts, Oviedo 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.37 
      WHIP. He does have 21 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. The Cardinals did him no
      favors by continually running him out last season when he obviously wasn’t
      ready, and it doesn’t appear that he’s gotten back on track yet.
 * Springfield Cardinals: 9-12
    - The power is slowly starting to come for [Jordan Walker](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=walker000jor&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral);
      he’s hitting .329, but he’s now up to 3 doubles, a triple, and a homer. His
      slash line is now .329/.434/.443, which is impressive for the 19 year old.
 * Peoria Chiefs: 12-9
    - [Michael McGreevy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcgree000mic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
      continues his hot start. While he only has a 1-0 record, he’s got a 1.27 ERA
      and 0.67 WHIP. He also has a 26:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 28.1 innings.
      Expect a promotion by mid-season.
 * Palm Beach Cardinals: 9-12

**Former CardinalsQuick hits on players who have been in the Cardinals system.

 * There are a few former Cardinals that have minor league opt outs with their current
   clubs. [Matt Carpenter](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   3B, Rangers) has decided not to opt out of his minor league deal with the Rangers;
   he’ll remain at Triple A. [Shelby Miller](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millesh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   RHP, Yankees) and [Carlos Martinez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martica04,martica03,martica02,martin024car,martin023car,martin019car&search=Carlos+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   RHP, Giants) are both able to opt out and haven’t made a decision yet.
 * [Dominic Leone](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonedo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   RHP, Giants) has landed on the Covid IL this past weekend. He’ll be out 10 days,
   unless he’s fever free for 24 hours, has 2 passed Covid tests, and gets approval
   from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA Joint Committee.
 * [Jose Godoy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/godoyjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   C, Twins) has been demoted to Triple A; he was up with Minnesota as insurance
   for the banged up [Gary Sanchez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchga02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
 * [Jon Jay](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jayjo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   OF, Free Agent) announced his retirement. Jay was drafted by the Cardinals in
   the second round of the 200X draft. He was a mainstay of the roster from 20XX-
   20XX, winning a championship in 2011. The team traded him to the Padres for [Jedd Gyorko](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gyorkje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
   in 20XX. He also played for the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Angels.
 * [Ryan Sherriff](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sherrry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   LHP, Phillies) was transferred to the 60-Day IL for his shoulder strain; he’s
   eligible to return to the team June 6th. His 40-man spot was needed, which led
   to the roster move.

**When Is the Right Time to Call Up Gorman?**
The Cardinals were going to be patient
with Gorman coming into the season. They got [Albert Pujols](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
and [Corey Dickerson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
to split DH duties and allow Gorman some extra time at Memphis. But due to the lack
of production against right handed pitchers and the excellent start of Gorman, they
are rethinking things.

Gorman is slashing .321/.372/.769 in 86 plate appearances at Memphis, where he is
4.4 years younger then the average age. He’s hitting a homer in 12% of his plate
appearances. And all of this was after going hitless in his first 3 games.

If there is one thing to worry about is his 35% strikeout percentage. He needs to
cut that down to be effective in the majors.

There are some hurdles to clear before he can be added; first off, he’s not on the
40-man. The Cardinals will need to DFA someone; Dickerson is the most obvious candidate,
but the team might not consider his $5M a sunk cost yet. There is a precedence for
eating money; they team did it with [Brett Cecil](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cecilbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
recently, and his salary was higher then Dickerson’s.

The other issue is playing time. He’ll see plenty of at bats against right handed
pitchers while DHings; he’s not going to get to see much time in the field. Everyone
is clamoring for [Tommy Edman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/edmanto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
to move back to shortstop, but it’s not that easy. Edman has played 3 games there
last year and 17 total for his career. He also didn’t see any time at short during
spring training. Moving him back there will take a little time; it’ll also hurt 
the defense in the short term. An Edman/Gorman middle infield is inferior to [Paul DeJong](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejonpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)/
Edman in both positions. Edman was a gold glover at second, but it’s not a sure 
thing that his defense is at the same level at a more demanding position.

Keeping DeJong on the bench won’t help the team either; his .145/.242/.255 line 
won’t play as a bench player too. Unfortunately there won’t be many teams that would
be interested in DeJong, unless they see something that the Cardinals aren’t able
to. I also don’t see the Cardinals cutting him either, as he’s got more money remaining
then Dickerson does.

Personally, I want to see Gorman up; I don’t want it to stunt his grow as a player
though. If he can’t be in the field 4-5 days a week, it’s not the right time.

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