# Monday Afternoon GM: A Long Week

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/monday-afternoon-gm-a-long-week/
- Published: 2022-06-06T16:05:15-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

The Cardinals had an interesting, long week. A 3-game series sweep at home against
the Padres made everyone optimistic going into a long series in Chicago; the Cardinals
were able to salvage 3 wins in the 5 game series.

The Cardinals outscored the Padres 14-7. The team played a well rounded game; they
hit, pitched, and played defense. [Paul Goldschmidt](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;amp;utm_source=&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral)
continued his amazing stretch into May and the final game saw [Nolan Arenado](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;amp;utm_source=&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral)
break of his month-long slump. [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;amp;utm_source=&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral)
pitched the middle game of the series and probably had his best start of the season,
striking out 10 over 7 shutout innings. Not to be out done, [Dakota Hudson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;amp;utm_source=&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral)
decided he needed his best start of the season to finish out the series.

That high from the sweep didn’t last long; the Cubs took game one Thursday 7-5. 
The Cardinals would take a game each of the next 3 days, but lost game one of Saturday’s
doubleheader. The Cardinals scored 32 over the 5 games while giving up 25. The issue
again was a big offensive day followed by little scoring; 14 runs on Friday, 1 run
during game one on Saturday. The biggest downsides were a rough outing by [Matthew Liberatore](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liberma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
and the end of Goldschmidt’s hitting streak at 25 games. The rookie fielders continued
to contribute; [Brendan Donovan](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donovbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
had a game winning hits in extra innings on Saturday and Sunday nights.

**Up NextA smaller week after the marathon they just completed. The Cardinals play
3 in Tampa Bay and come home for 3 against the Reds. The Cardinals haven’t faced
the Rays this season and are 2-1 against the Reds.

NL Central Standings

| Team | W | L | Pct | GB | Last 10 | Streak | 
| Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 23 | .589 | — | 4-6 | L3 | 
| St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 23 | .582 | 0.5 | 7-3 | W2 | 
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 28 | .462 | 7.0 | 7-3 | W2 | 
| Chicago Cubs | 23 | 32 | .418 | 9.5 | 4-6 | L2 | 
| Cincinnati Reds | 18 | 35 | .340 | 13.5 | 5-5 | L3 |

The Brewers had a bad week and have let the Cardinals get within a game; these teams
should be battling it out all season. The Pirates have gone on a run all of the 
sudden, but they’ll continue to sit around .500 for the season.

At their current pace, the Cardinals are in line for a 94-68 record, approximately
4 wins ahead of my prediction.

**Run Differential**
The Cardinals have scored 269 runs this season and allowed 
215, giving them a differential of +54. That would put them at a 33-22 record, one
game better then they currently are. Essentially, their record is in line with their
run differential. If they continue at this pace, they are in line for a 97-65 record.

[[

**Cardinal News**
Where to start this week…

 * The Cardinals have produced their third straight [MLB Player of the Month: Goldschmidt](https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-paul-goldschmidt-named-players-of-the-month-for-may-2022#:~:text=Aaron%20Judge%2C%20Paul%20Goldschmidt%20named%20Players%20of%20the%20Month%20for%20May%202022).
   [Tyler O’Neill](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=oneilty01,oneill001tyl&amp;amp;search=Tyler+O'Neill&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   was the player of the month for last September, followed by Arenado in April;
   both players have struggled since winning their respective months, although Arenado
   looks like he might be coming out of his funk.
 * There were a [flurry of roster moves before the Cubs series](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2022/06/cardinals-announce-roster-moves-oviedo-thompson-liberatore-whitley-oneill-carlson-robertson/):
   Liberatore and [Kodi Whitley](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitlko01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   were sent down; [Zack Thompson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thompza02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   and Oviedo were called up. [](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodfja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   [Jake Wood](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=woodja01,wood--002jak&amp;search=Jake+Wood&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
   ford was the 27th man for the doubleheader, but sent right back down after the
   game.
 * [Kramer Robertson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberkr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   can be moved to the former Cardinal section. He was [designated for assignment on Friday](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2022/06/cardinals-announce-roster-moves-oviedo-thompson-liberatore-whitley-oneill-carlson-robertson/)
   when Thompson was added to the 40-man roster; the Braves claimed him off waivers
   over the weekend. Robertson really didn’t have a future with the team, with the
   emergence of Donovan in front of him and prospects like [Masyn Winn](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=winn--000mas&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   and [Jordan Walker](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=walker000jor&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   behind him.
 * The Cardinals placed [Corey Dickerson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   on the IL on Sunday with a left calf strain; he left the first games of Saturday’s
   doubleheader with the injury. This might a be a relief for the team, as they 
   have both O’Neill and [Dylan Carlson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carlsdy01,carlso001dyl&amp;amp;search=Dylan+Carlson&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   on rehab assignments; the team would have had to make a decision on cutting Dickerson(
   and the rest of his $5M salary) or sending down one of Donovan, [Juan Yepez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yepezju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral),
   or [Nolan Gorman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gormano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)(
   assuming that [Lars Nootbaar](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nootbla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   will be sent down for the other rehabbing player). [Jake Walsh](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walshja02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)
   was called up for his roster spot.

Rehab News
Here’s a quick look at the numbers for guys on rehab assignments:

 * [Dylan Carlson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carlsdy01,carlso001dyl&amp;amp;search=Dylan+Carlson&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)@
   Springfield: 3 G, 0-7, 1 BB, 1K, .000/.125/.000
 * [Tyler O’Neill](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=oneilty01,oneill001tyl&amp;amp;search=Tyler+O'Neill&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)@
   Memphis: 3 G, 5-13, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 4 K, .385/.429./692
 * [Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;amp;utm_source=&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral)@
   Springfield: 1 G, 3.0 IP, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP

**Cardinal RumorsNo rumors over the last week.

**The SystemHere’s the rundown of the system…

 * Memphis Redbirds: 31-23
    - Up Next: vs. Durham Bulls (29-25)
 *  - [Alec Burleson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=burles000ale&amp;amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;amp;utm_source=&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral)
      was named the [Cardinals Player of the Month for May](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2022/06/burleson-graceffo-named-cardinals-top-minor-leaguers-for-the-month-of-may/).
      Check out our scouting report [here](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2022/06/prospect-profile-alec-burleson/).
 * Springfield Cardinals: 20-31
    - Up Next: @ Midland RockHounds (23-28)
 *  - [Gordon Graceffo](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gracef000gor&amp;amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;amp;utm_source=&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral)
      was named the [Cardinals Pitcher of the Month for May](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2022/06/burleson-graceffo-named-cardinals-top-minor-leaguers-for-the-month-of-may/);
      he split the month between Springfield and Peoria.
 * Peoria Chiefs: 21-30
    - Up Next: vs. Quad Cities River Bandits (19-32)
 * Palm Beach Cardinals: 20-29
    - Up Next: @ Tampa Tarpons (22-29)
 * Minor League Baseball released[ their top player and pitcher at each level](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2022/06/minor-league-baseball-announces-may-players-and-pitchers-of-the-month-2/);
   the Cardinals were shut out this month after having 3 players named last month.

**Former CardinalsA quick look at former Cardinals in the news…

 * [J.A. Happ](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)(
   LHP, Free Agent) retired.
 * [Jason Heyward](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)(
   OF, Cubs) [was reinstated from the IL](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/06/cubs-place-drew-smyly-on-injured-list.html);
   he was out with Covid symptoms.
 * [Lance Lynn](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)(
   RHP, White Sox) has made 2 rehab starts and [will make 1 more this week](https://twitter.com/CST_soxvan/status/1533483632878309379)
   before the White Sox decide what to do with the pitcher; it’s expected he’ll 
   be activated for his season debut.
 * [Mike Mayers](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mayermi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)(
   RHP, Angels) was designated for assignment; he cleared [waivers and was assigned to Triple A](https://twitter.com/SamBlum3/status/1532552861128826888).
   He could have rejected the assignment based off service time, but did not.
 * [Ian McKinney](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mckinn000ian&amp;amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)(
   LHP, Mariners) was [released by the organization](https://twitter.com/PaulBraverman/status/1533525335450431488);
   he was pitching with Triple A Tacoma. Over 2 seasons in Triple A, McKinney has
   struggled to a 7.22 ERA with a 15.86% K and 12.75% BB rates.
 * [Ildemaro Vargas](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargail01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=&amp;utm_medium=referral)(
   IF, Free Agent) signed a [minor league deal with the Nationals](https://www.mlb.com/player/ildemaro-vargas-545121)
   and was assigned to Triple A; he recently refused a minor league assignment by
   the Cubs.
 * [T.J. Zeuch](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zeuchtj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   LHP, Free Agent) signed a [minor league deal with the Reds](https://twitter.com/ctrent/status/1532803744739516417)
   after being released by the Cardinals a early last week.

**Do the Cardinals Struggle After “Spending Their Runs” in 1 Game?**
The Cardinals
seem to have spurts where they score 10 runs, the follow it up with 1-2 in the next
game. It’s gotten to the point where you expect an L the day after a high scored.
But I’ve found that’s not the case.

The Cardinals have a positive run differential, which is stated above. In fact, 
it’s one of the highest in the league; 4th in the MLB and 2nd in the NL.

It’s also safe to assume that they more the score, the higher their win percentage
is; this proved to be correct:

| RS/G | W | L | W% | 
| 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 
| 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.143 | 
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.333 | 
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.400 | 
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.667 | 
| 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.750 | 
| 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 
| 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.800 | 
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 
| 10+ | 7 | 0 | 1.000 | 
| Total | 32 | 23 | 0.582 |

The Cardinals have had 10 games this season where they’ve scored 8 or more runs.
How did they do the following day?

To start, we need to know that they average 4.89 runs per game this season.

In those 10 games following 8+ runs, they have a 0-run game, 2 1-run game, 3 2-run
games, a 6-run game, 2 7-run games, and an 8-run game. That gives them an average
of 3.60 runs per game; so they do score fewer runs after a big output by 1.29 runs
less then average. That’s significant because they only allow an average 3.91 runs
per game; that puts them at an instant disadvantage.

Their record in those games is a surprising 5-5. This is supported in their run 
differential which is 0.

Based off this, it’s safe to assume the Cardinals have a 50/50 shot of winning the
game after scoring 8+ runs.

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