# Monday Afternoon GM: A Disappointing Positive

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/monday-afternoon-gm-a-disappointing-positive/
- Published: 2022-08-29T13:15:29-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

The Cardinals had a big week that came out better then it should have; 8 games in
7 days with a 5-3 record. The 3-2 against the Cubs should have been better, and 
the 2-1 against the red hot Braves was completely lucky.

The Cardinals had mixed results from the Cubs; it would have been a better stop 
at Wrigley if they could have taken 4 of the 5. They had 2 big scoring outputs, 
but scored 2 runs in the remaining 3 games. The Cubs only motivation right now is
to play spoiler, and taking 2 of 5 might not seem very spoilerish, but at the end
of the season an extra games or 2 against the Cubs could be the difference between
the division and the wild card.

It was the opposite against the Braves; they took 2 out of 3, but it really could
have been 0 out of 3. The Cardinals won on Saturday with a walk off walk; if any
pitcher other then Kensley Jansen was pitching, it might have been a different finish.
Then on Sunday, a pretty good [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
start is spoiled by 3-run homer allowed by [Ryan Helsley](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/helslry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
2 runs charged to Waino) before the late inning hitting started again for a 6-3 
win. That said, the Cardinals kept fighting against the Braves and shut down a little
of the talk that they can’t beat a contender.

**Up NextThe Cards go back on the road for a short 3-game series in Cincinnati, 
then come home for 3 against the Cubs. The Cardinals are 7-4 against the Reds this
year; they are 10-6 against Chicago. Ideally, you’d like to see 4-2 for the week.

**NL Central**

|  | W | L | Pct | GB | Last 10 | Streak | 
| St. Louis Cardinals | 74 | 54 | .578 | — | 7-3 | W2 | 
| Milwaukee Brewers | 67 | 59 | .532 | 6.0 | 5-5 | W2 | 
| Chicago Cubs | 55 | 73 | .430 | 19.0 | 4-6 | L2 | 
| Cincinnati Reds | 50 | 76 | .397 | 23.0 | 4-6 | L1 | 
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 48 | 79 | .378 | 25.5 | 3-7 | W1 |

The Cards were able to pick up a game on the Brewers, who were completely collapsing;
it appears the team and the fans [have lost faith in the front office](https://defector.com/the-brewers-look-shaken-but-not-lost/)
after the [Josh Hader](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
trade. Hader has been pretty bad since being traded, so maybe the move wasn’t so
bad (at least on the field).

The Cardinals are currently on pace for a 94-68 record, which actually moved them
up a win. This is good enough to win the division. ESPN has upped their playoff 
percentage from 94.9% to 97.7%.

**NL Wild CardWhile the Cardinals have pulled out of the wild card race, it’s still
worth watching because the Cardinals would play the 3rd wild card in the first round
of the playoffs.

| Team | W | L | Pct | GB | 
| Atlanta Braves | 79 | 50 | 0.612 | — | 
| Philadelphia Phillies | 72 | 56 | 0.563 | — | 
| San Diego Padres | 70 | 59 | 0.543 | — | 
| Milwaukee Brewers | 67 | 59 | 0.532 | 1.5 | 
| San Francisco Giants | 61 | 65 | 0.484 | 7.5 |

The Phillies and the Padres flip flopped last week, while the Brewers hung in at
1.5 games back (same as last week). The Cardinals are 3-0 against the Padres this
year, with another series still to come. The Giants are pretty much out of it and
will drop off in the next few weeks; ESPN is giving them an 0.8% chance of making
the post season.

**Run DifferentialThe Cardinals have scored 625 runs and allowed 508, good for a
run differential of +117; based off this, they should be 76-52, or 2 games better
then their actual record. They are on pace for a 96-66 records if their record reflected
their run differential. The teams run differential is 4th in the NL and 6th in baseball.

[[

After a +33 jump the previous week, last week only saw the Cardinals add +5 runs
to their differential. They have the 3rd most runs scored in the NL and the 4 least
runs allowed.

**Cardinal News**
Rejoice, the prodigal son has returned; the Cardinals have re-
signed [T.J. McFarland](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcfartj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
to a minor league deal. While insignificant, it’s worth noting that the Cardinals
were working with McFarland to get back to the pitcher they picked up in 2021 and
now he can do it at Memphis. He hasn’t found it yet, since he’s sporting an 8.10
ERA in 3.1 innings and blown a save since re-signing.

[Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
is nearing a return, but he’ll [have 1 more rehab start before returning.](https://twitter.com/jmjones/status/1563992625501323264)
Flaherty has gotten better in each start (see the numbers below) and will be a welcome
addition to the rotation, if he’s truly healthy. A healthy Flaherty is better then
[Dakota Hudson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
and possibly [Jose Quintana](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quintjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).

Another starter is returning soon; [Steven Matz](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matzst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
could be ready to come back soon, but [he’ll return as reliever](https://twitter.com/JohnDenton555/status/1563281383971139585).
Matz, who sprained his left MCL, [will throw 2 more bullpen sessions](https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/cardinals-steven-matz-set-for-two-more-pen-sessions/)
before going on a rehab assignment. The team wants him to ramp up his velocity, 
which as at 89 MPH in his last bullpen.

Other quick transactions during the week: Helsley was transferred to and returned
from the restricted list (he was spending time with his newborn) and [Packy Naughton](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/naughpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
was sent down. [Matthew Liberatore](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liberma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
was up and down as the 27th man in last week’s double header. [Juan Yepez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yepezju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
got a quick callup to replace [Nolan Arenado](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral);
Arenado also welcomed a child into the world. The most surprising move was the demotion
of [Genesis Cabrera](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabrege01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
and the return of [Zack Thompson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thompza02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral);
Cabrera was a reliable reliever last season and at the start of this one, but I 
believe he’s been overworked this season and has a case of dead arm.

**Cardinal RumorsWe aren’t even into September yet, but off-season rumors are starting;
[the Cardinals are interested](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/report_cardinals_expected_to_pursue_cubs_c_wilson_contreras_this_winter/s1_127_37820059)
in [Willson Contreras](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/contrwi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
as the heir to [Yadier Molina](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral).
Apparently the Cardinals checked in on the catcher at the trade deadline, but I 
guarantee the Cubs asked for the moon to trade him within the division. The goes
with the idea that the team doesn’t have faith in [Andrew Knizner](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kniznan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
and [Ivan Herrera](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/herreiv01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
is not considered ready. I’m expecting the team will also check on [Sean Murphy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=murphse01,murphy010sea&search=Sean+Murphy&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)
in Oakland.

Minor Leagues

 * Memphis Redbirds: 63-59, 4th Place
    - Up Next: @ Nashville Sounds (74-48)
    - [Kyle Ryan](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
      LHP) released.
 * Springfield Cardinals: 58-62, 2nd Place (2nd Half)
    - Up Next: vs Wichita Wind Surge (67-52)
 * Peoria Chiefs: 51-69, 5th Place (2nd Half)
    - Up Next: vs Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (61-58)
    - [Edgar Manzo](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=manzo-000edg&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
      RHP) off IL.
 * Palm Beach Cardinals: 60-57, 1st Place (2nd Half)
    - Up Next: vs Daytona Tortugas (48-69)
    - [D.J. Carpenter](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=carpen002dan&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
      RHP), [Tanner Jacobson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jacobs000tan&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
      RHP) promoted from FCL.
 * FCL Cardinals: 25-29, 5th Place
    - [Omar Sanchez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sanche004oma&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
      LHP), [Ludwin Jimenez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jimene000lud&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
      RHP) demoted from Palm Beach.
 * DSL Cardinals: 33-26, 4th Place

The MLBPA might start to represent the minor league players as their collective 
bargaining negotiators. [According to multiple reports](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/mlbpa-unionize-minor-league-players.html),
the MLBPA sent out voting cards to minor leaguers so they could designate the MLBPA
as their collective bargaining representatives. If this were to happen, minor league
players could possibly see better conditions for their lives. While Major League
teams have stepped up to help with housing, meals, and game facilities, the players
still do not make very much money. MLB is exempt from minimum wage laws, so some
players only make $2000 a season. The downside is the owners will pass potential
pay increases onto the fans and increase ticket prices at minor league stadiums;
we’ve seen what happens to bloated MLB contracts for fans.

Rehab Assignments

 * Jack Flaherty (RHP, Memphis): 1 G, 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
    - Totals (2 @ Memphis, 2 @ Springfield): 4 G, 13.1 IP, 14 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 16 
      K

Former Cardinals

 * [Jose Godoy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/godoyjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   C, Pirates) has been outrighted to Triple A; he was previously designated for
   assignment and no other team claimed him. He’ll wait patiently for another chance
   to get back to the Majors.
 * [Kevin Herget](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=herget000kev&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   RHP, Rays) won’t get the happy ending; he’s been designated for assignment by
   the Rays before getting into an MLB game. The
 * [Jason Heyward](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   OF, Cubs) has been moved to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man roster spot. He’s
   done for the season and the Cubs have already announced he won’t be back next
   year.
 * [Yairo Munoz](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/munozya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   IF, Phillies) was optioned to Triple A to make room for [Bryce Harper](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)‘
   s return.
 * [Stephen Piscotty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piscost01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   OF, Free Agent) signed a minor league deal with the Reds. He was cut loose by
   the Athletics after a fairly unproductive season.
 * [Trevor Rosenthal](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosentr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   RHP, Brewers) is out for the rest of the year. The Brewer’s traded for the reliever
   at the trade deadline without him throwing an MLB pitch this season; he missed
   all of 2021 with thoracic outlet syndrome and will finish this year with another
   shoulder problem.
 * [Chasen Shreve](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shrevch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral)(
   LHP, Free Agent) signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. He started the 
   season across town with the Mets, but was cut loose after posting a 6.49 ERA 
   in 26.1 IP.

**Cardinals vs the ContendersThe Cardinals have been know to either play to their
competition or to knock around the bad guys in the last few years; this year is 
the knocking around the bad guys kind of year. They can beat up on the Cubs, Pirates
and Reds pretty well, but struggle against the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers. That’s
a big concern for the post-season; there won’t be bad teams.

How do the Cardinal stack up against above .500 teams?

| Team | W | L | W% | 
| Braves | 3 | 4 | .429 | 
| Brewers | 8 | 7 | .533 | 
| Dodgers | 1 | 2 | .333 | 
| Mets | 2 | 5 | .286 | 
| Padres | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 
| Phillies | 3 | 4 | .429 | 
| Blue Jays | 2 | 2 | .500 | 
| Orioles | 1 | 2 | .333 | 
| Rays | 0 | 3 | .000 | 
| Yankees | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 
| Totals | 26 | 29 | .473 |

The Cardinals have a .658 winning percentage against losing teams. The Cardinals
have 4 against the Brewers, 3 against the Padres, and 3 against the Dodgers still
on the schedule; they have 8 with the Reds, 3 with the Cubs, 4 with the Nationals,
and 9 with the Pirates.

Their play against good teams is not going to cut it in October. As of today, the
Cardinals will face the Padres; based off percentages, they have a good shot to 
win. Granted, they have another series with the Padres, but the team has been trending
downward since the trade deadline and the last time the Cardinals played them.

The Phillies would be tougher, since the Cardinals have a losing record against 
them. Same with the Braves, although the Cardinals have a little momentum against
them.

The Cardinals are within striking distance of the Mets and getting a first round
bye; that would be helpful, but it wouldn’t be a difference maker. Either way, a
series with the Mets is likely (the winner of NL3 vs NL6/WC3 would face NL2), which
is not good for the Cardinals. It would then be expected that the Dodgers would 
be the opponent in the NLCS, which, again, isn’t a great matchup.

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