# Monday Afternoon GM: 30 Games Into Potential Bad History

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/monday-afternoon-gm-30-games-into-potential-bad-history/
- Published: 2023-05-01T13:30:52-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

### **Monday Afternoon GM looks at the rough start, the minors, and a cause for Jordan Hick’s struggles**

It’s been tough to write these this season; lost series after lost series. In 30
games this season, the Cardinals are 10-19 (.345%); it’s the first April with a 
losing record since 2007 and this the worst start to a season in 50 years (1973,
the Cardinals were 3-15 at the end of April). The team was 2-6-1 in series last 
month. They are sitting 10 games back of first place Pittsburgh (let that sink in).

Everyone expected the starting pitching to be the issue, but this has been spread
over everyone. The offense is only averaging 4.24 runs per game, good for 20th in
the MLB. They are dead last in the NL Central: Cubs 5.41, Pirates 5.38, Brewers 
4.57, Reds 4.46. League average is 4.59.

[Paul Goldschmidt](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
1.1), [Tommy Edman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/edmanto01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
0.8), and [Nolan Gorman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gormano01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
0.5) are the top 3 hitters in bWAR; [Jordan Walker](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkejo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.4) and [Tyler O’Neill](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=oneilty01,oneill001tyl&search=Tyler+O'Neill&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.1) were the only hitters in the red. This is a little deceiving though; if you
remove dWAR from the equations, [Andrew Knizner](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kniznan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.2), [Nolan Arenado](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.1), and O’Neill (-0.1) are the worst hitters. Arenado has look lost recently, 
but he’s good enough to right the ship.

The pitching is suspect; they have averaged 4.69 run allowed per game, which is 
again 20th in baseball. Only the Reds (4.96) have allowed more runs per game int
he division: Brewers (3.57), Pirates (3.72), Cubs (3.81).

The rotation, I’d argue, hasn’t been as bad as expected (although it’s not good).
[Jordan Montgomery](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=montgjo01,montgo001jor&search=Jordan+Montgomery&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
0.7) and [Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
0.3) lead the team in bWAR, while the other 3 have been negative: [Miles Mikolas](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mikolmi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.4), [Steven Matz](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matzst01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.3), [Jake Woodford](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodfja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.2). Mikolas could be experiencing a rebound already; each start has gotten a little
bit better. If he’s back to normal in another start or 2, I’d chalk this up to the
World Baseball Classic messing with his normal spring routine; rather then working
with the team, learning a new catcher, and getting regular work in, he was with 
Team USA where he wasn’t getting the same exposure to hitters.

The bullpen hasn’t lived up to expectations. [Giovanny Gallegos](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallegi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
0.4), [Genesis Cabrera](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabrege01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
0.3), and [JoJo Romero](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)/
[Packy Naughton](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/naughpa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
0.2) have been the best relievers, while [Andre Pallante](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pallaan01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.4), [Jordan Hicks](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksjo03.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.4), and [Zack Thompson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thompza02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(-
0.1) have been the worst; all other relievers have 0.0 bWAR. What’s hurting the 
bullpen is [Ryan Helsley](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/helslry01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)‘
s 3 blown saves in 6 chances (after 4 blown saves in 23 chances last season) and
[Oli Marmol](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marmool99.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)‘
s insistance to keep using Hicks (more on him later).

Let’s put it this way, the team is on pace for a 56-106 season, their first losing
season since 2007 and their worst finish since 1913 (51-99, .340%)

**This Week**
The Cardinals will come home for 3 game series against the Angels (
15-14) and Tigers (10-17); the team hasn’t faced either opponents yet this season.
It could be a good chance to get on track, or it could be time to make some changes.

_Projected starters: Tuesday: [Patrick Sandoval](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
2-1) vs Matz (0-3)
Wednesday: [Shohei Ohtani](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
4-0) vs Mikolas (1-1)Thursday: [Griffin Canning](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cannigr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
1-0) vs Flaherty (2-3)

The Tigers and Cardinals haven’t listed projected starters yet.

**Run Differential**
This is ugly. The Cardinals have scored 123 runs this season
and allowed 136, good for a run differential of -13. That puts the Cardinals at 
an expected record of 13-16, or 3 games better then they are currently playing; 
they are underperforming right now. Over 162 games, they should have a 74-88 record.

**Injury Updates**

 * [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)–
   Wainwright’s made 3 rehab starts, and they haven’t been all that encouraging 
   other than getting his pitch count up. The 3rd start was April 30 for Memphis
   where he went 5 2/3 (89 pitches), allowing 4 runs on 7 hits and while, while 
   striking out 9. The Ks are good, but his struggles could show that he’s late 
   2022 Wainwright rather than vintage Waino.
 * [Wilking Rodriguez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriwi02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)–
   Rodriguez, a Rule V pick, started the season on the IL with shoulder pain. He
   made 3 rehab appearances at Memphis, but was shut down over the weekend after
   a setback. No other details have been released yet.
 * Packy Naughton – No update on Naughton; he went on the IL April 8 with a forearm
   strain. He’s expected back this season.

**Minor League Update**

_Note: I’m listing everything for the season here since this is the debut edition
for 2023._

Memphis Redbirds: 18-9, 1st Place International League West

 * This week: vs Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (13-12, Marlins affiliate)
 * Promotions: [Grant Black](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=black-000gra&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP, Springfield), [Ryan Loutos](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=loutos000rya&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP, Springfield), [Michael McGreevy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcgree000mic&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP, Springfield), [Justin Toerner](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=toerne000jus&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   OF, Springfield)
 * Demotions: Andre Pallante (RHP, St. Louis), Jordan Walker (OF, St. Louis), [Juan Yepez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yepezju01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   OF, St. Louis)
 * To IL: [Dakota Hudson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP), [Scott Hurst](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hurstsc01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   OF)
 * Off IL: Tommy Parsons (RHP)

Springfield Cardinals: 9-12, 4th Place Texas League North

 * This week: vs Arkansas Travelers (14-7, Mariners affiliate)
 * Promotions: [Jack Ralston](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ralsto000jac&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP, Extended Spring Training), [Wade Stauss](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=stauss000wad&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   C, Peoria)
 * Demotions: None
 * To IL: [Todd Lott](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lott--000tod&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   1B/OF)
 * Off IL: None

Peoria Chiefs: 9-12, 5th Place Midwest League West

 * This week: vs Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (8-12, Brewers affiliate)
 * Promotions: [Gustavo Rodriguez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig003gus&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP, Palm Beach), [Leonardo Taveras](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=tavera001leo&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP, Extended Spring Training)
 * Demotions: None
 * To IL: [Tink Hence](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hence-000mar&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP), [Austin Love](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=love--000aus&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP)
 * Off IL: None

Palm Beach Cardinals: 11-10, 2nd Place Florida State League East

 * This week: vs Daytona Tortugas (8-13, Reds affiliate)
 * Promotions: [Angel Cuenca](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cuenca000ang&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   RHP, Extended Spring Training)
 * Demotions: None
 * To IL: None
 * Off IL: [Brady Moore](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=moore-015bra&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   IF)

Others:

 * Demoted: [Javier Bolivar](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=boliva000jav&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   IF, Palm Beach to Extended Spring Training)
 * Signed: Andrew Bolivar (RHP, assigned to DSL Cardinals)
 * Released: [Nelfri Contreras](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=contre000nel&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br)(
   LHP, Extended Spring Training)

**Can Hicks Be Trusted?**
As mentioned, Jordan Hicks has been one of the biggest
issues in the bullpen. He’s throwing the fastball hard still, but has idea where
it’s going. As a result he’s throwing the slider more; when he can’t locate the 
fastball, hitters are sitting on the slider.

According to Statcast (via [Baseball Savant](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-hicks-663855?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb)),
Hicks is only hitting the strikezone on 40.8% of his pitches; league average is 
48.5% and his previous worst as 44.4% in 2021. This right here is probably his biggest
issue right now.

Hitters are only swinging at 48% of his pitches in the zone; league average is 66.9%
and his previous worst was 55.1% in 2019. If they know he’s not going to be hitting
the zone, they’re going to stop swinging, which is exactly what we’re seeing.

One of the reasons for this could be the pitch clock. Prior to 2022, his tempo with
bases empty was around 21 seconds; it dropped to 18.7 in 2022 and to 17.0 this season.
In 2019 and 2021, his fast tempo with bases empty was around 0.5% of his pitches;
that’s up to 17% this season. His slow tempo with bases empty went ranged from 4-
8% between 2019 and 2021 before working down to 1.9% since the start of 2022.

He was even slower with men on base. His tempo prior to 2022 was almost 25 seconds
with men on base; 2022 saw it drop to 22.0 and this season it’s been at 17.9. His
fast tempo was 0% prior to this season, where it jumped to 17.7% of his pitches.
Slow pitches ranged from 7.3% to 14.9% prior to this year, where it’s dropped to
0%.

Since he’s getting less time between pitches, he’s struggling to consistently throw
in the zone. It’s really something he needs to work on in the minors, but due to
his service time, he can reject a demotion.

The Cardinals announced on April 16th that he’d only pitch in low level situations
until his issues are worked out; they’ve pretty much stuck to that. The first game
he pitched in was during the 9th inning trailing by a run; the leverage of that 
situation was only a .05 (anything under 1.00 is a low leverage situation). Since
that announcement though, Hicks has seen his ERA and FIP drop and he’s only been
in 1 situation with a leverage index higher than 1 (April 26, when he took a loss
on an unearned run).

If the Cardinals are out of it, Hicks could be a trade candidate; he’s a free agent
after the season and a contender would take a shot on correcting his issues because
of the velocity.

**Around The Web**

 * I looked at [Jordan Walker’s demotion last week](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2023/04/jordan-walker-and-the-2-7-launch-angle-problem/);
   if he can fix his launch angle, he’ll be a good shape.
 * The [Cardinal’s statement](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2023/05/mike-shannon-passes-away-at-the-age-of-83/)
   on the passing of [Mike Shannon](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=shannmi01,shanno000mik&search=Mike+Shannon&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.nyrdcast.com&utm_campaign=2023-05-01_br).
 * [Viva El Birdos](https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/5/1/23706260/a-look-at-internal-options-for-the-rotation)
   has some internal candidates for rotation help.
 * [Redbird Rants](https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/5/1/23706260/a-look-at-internal-options-for-the-rotation)
   lists encouraging and discouraging signs from the Dodgers series.

I’ll be back next week with more.

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