# Let the Off-Season Begin

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/let-the-off-season-begin/
- Published: 2021-11-03T10:33:12-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

With the Braves beating the Astros in game 6 of the World Series, we are now set
to start the MLB Hot Stove season. This should be an interesting one too; the Collective
Bargaining Agreement is set to the expire, so there will be a lot riding on negotiations
between the owners and players union.

Here are the important dates for the off-season and how each impacts the Cardinals.

**Nov 3-7: Options must be exercised, opt outs decided. Free Agent dead period; 
can only sign with current team.It’s pretty much a formality for the team to decline
options on [Carlos Martinez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martica04,martica03,martica02,martin023car,martin019car&search=Carlos+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
and [Matt Carpenter](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carpema01,carpen003mat&search=Matt+Carpenter&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-);
the team has pretty much said as much. I have a bad feeling that the team might 
try to make an low ball offer to bring back Carpenter, and it could be the only 
MLB offer he sees.

As for opt outs, [Nolan Arenado](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
is the only one with a decision to make. While he said back in September that he’s
coming back, I’m wondering if the Mike Shildt firing would have an impact; I’m pretty
sure the front office would have talked with him about the change and get his blessing,
but then I also would have expected them to hang onto Shildt prior to a few weeks
ago.

**Nov 7: Qualifying offers due ($18.4M)The Cardinals have the following free agents:

 * [Luis Garcia](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=garcilu05,garcilu04,garcilu03,garcilu02,garcilu01,garcia029lui,garcia028lui,garcia023lui,garcia022lui,garcia017lui,garcia021lui&search=Luis+Garcia&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
 * [J.A. Happ](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
 * [Kwang Hyun Kim](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimkw01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
 * [Wade LeBlanc](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leblawa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
 * [Jon Lester](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
 * [T.J. McFarland](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcfartj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
 * [Andrew Miller](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=millean01,miller021and,miller020and,miller019and,miller018and,miller016and,miller017and&search=Andrew+Miller&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
 * [Justin Miller](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=milleju02,milleju01,miller018jus,miller017jus,miller015jus,miller014jus,miller012jus,miller009jus&search=Justin+Miller&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)(
   outrighted from 40-man)

None of these players would quantify a QO. I’d also throw in that Carpenter and 
Martinez won’t either; Carpenter’s option is only $100k over the QO value and Martinez’s
is less.

**Nov 8: Free agency opensI don’t expect a single team to be very active until after
the new CBA is signed; I’ll have more on that below.

The Cardinals need help in the rotation and bullpen and could use an upgrade in 
the lineup.

While people are content with a [Edmundo Sosa](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sosaed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)/
[Paul DeJong](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejonpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
timeshare at short, they could definitely use an upgrade there. People will also
point out that [Tommy Edman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/edmanto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
could play short if [Nolan Gorman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gorman000nol&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
is ready for second. Here’s the issue with this: there are a lot of “IFs” involved.
We don’t know what will happen with Gorman. We have seen that the more Edman plays,
the less effective he is. We don’t know if Sosa is an everyday player; he’s only
been to the plate 339 times in his career, which is still a small sample size. DeJong
has seen his OPS+ decrease each of the 5 seasons he’s been in the majors (121, 102,
99, 87, 86).

Look at it this way: first, third, and catcher are set and the outfield took a huge
step forward. That leaves second and short as upgrades. Second base would be better
off with combination of Edman and Sosa; both are cost controlled and Edman is better
when his use is limited. Shortstop has a lot more options available on the market.

**Nov 8-11: GM MeetingsNot much is done here; the December Winter Meetings are where
deals typically get done.

**Nov 17: Deadline to accept QOThis won’t matter since the Cardinals won’t make 
a QO.

**Nov 19: Deadline for Rule V protection on 40-manThe following players are Rule
V Eligible:

 * [Luken Baker](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=baker-002luk&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   1B, AAA
 * [Jacob Bosiokovic](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bosiok000jac&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AAA
 * [Conner Capel](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=capel-000con&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, AAA
 * [Leandro Cedeno](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cedeno000lea&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, AA
 * [Adanson Cruz](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cruz--001ada&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, A-
 * Joerlin de los Santos, OF, R
 * [Brendan Donovan](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=donova002bre&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   3B, AAA
 * [Nick Dunn](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=dunn--000nic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   2B, AAA
 * [Edgar Escobar](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=escoba000edg&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AA
 * [Edgar Gonzalez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gonzaed01,gonzaed02,gonzal004edg&search=Edgar+Gonzalez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AA
 * [Francisco Hernandez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=hernan011fra,hernan010fra&search=Francisco+Hernandez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   2B, A+
 * [Connor Jones](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=jones-008con,jones-002con&search=Connor+Jones&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AAA
 * [Evan Kruczynski](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kruczy000eva&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   LHP, AAA
 * [Kyle Leahy](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=leahy-000kyl&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AA
 * [Irving Lopez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lopez-000irv&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   3B, AAA
 * [Evan Mendoza](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mendoz000eva&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   SS, AAA
 * [Luis Montano](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=montan004lui&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, A-
 * [Jose Moreno](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=morenjo01,moreno017jos,moreno012jos,moreno010jos,moreno013jos,moreno008jos&search=Jose+Moreno&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, A+
 * [Freddy Pacheco](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=pachec000fre&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AAA
 * [Thomas Parsons](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=parson000tom&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AAA
 * [Wilfredo Pereira](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=pereir000wil&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AA
 * [Delvin Perez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-003del&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   SS, AA
 * [Chase Pinder](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=pinder001cha&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, AA
 * [Nick Plummer](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=plumme000nic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, AAA
 * [Domingo Robles](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=robles000dom&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   LHP, AA
 * [Griffin Roberts](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=robert000gri&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AA
 * [Kramer Robertson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=robert000kra&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   2B, AAA
 * [Edgardo Rodriguez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig006edg&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   C, A+
 * Julio E. Rodriguez, C, AAA
 * [Luis Rodriguez](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodrilu01,rodrig050lui,rodrig049lui,rodrig048lui,rodrig047lui,rodrig045lui,rodrig042lui,rodrig041lui,rodrig039lui,rodrig038lui,rodrig035lui,rodrig034lui,rodrig043lui,rodrig029lui&search=Luis+Rodríguez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   1B, A-
 * [Ramon Santos](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=santos002ram&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AAA
 * [Enmanuel Solano](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=solano000enm&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AA
 * [Carlos Soto](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=soto--004car,soto--003car&search=Carlos+Soto&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   C, AA
 * [Franklin Soto](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=soto--007fra&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   2B, A-
 * [Cory Thompson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=thomps000cor&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AA
 * [Justin Toerner](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=toerne000jus&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, AAA
 * [Jhon Torres](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=torres002jho&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   OF, A+
 * [Jake Walsh](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=walsh-001jak,walsh-003jak&search=Jake+Walsh&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   RHP, AAA
 * [Austin Warner](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=warner001aus,warner000aus&search=Austin+Warner&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   LHP, AAA
 * [Brady Whalen](https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=whalen000bra&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   1B, A+
 * [Garrett Williams](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=willia009gar,willia007gar&search=Garrett+Williams&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
   LHP, AAA

I would consider these guys the potential players to join the 40 man:
Luken Baker,
Brendan Donovan, Connor Jones, Thomas Parsons, Delvin Perez, Nick Plummer, Jake 
Walsh, Austin Warner

Of these, I’d say Baker, Perez, Plummer, and Walsh have the best shot. Guys like
Jones, Parsons, and Warner are borderline and depend on the Cardinals reliever plans
for 2022.

**Dec 1: CBA expires, possibility of league-wide lockout of transactionsThis is 
probably the most important one right now. No team will sign a big free agent until
the CBA is renegotiated. We are also looking at a strong possibility of strike or
lockout if things don’t get worked out. There is a lot of animosity between the 
owners and players union; there is also a lot of issues that need to be fixed in
the game. Neither side is going to willingly give up much, so it could be a long
wait for fans.

**Dec 2: Deadline to tender contractsHere are the arbitration eligible players and
the salaries projected by MLB Trade Rumors:

 * [Harrison Bader](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baderha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)–
   $3.7MM
 * [Jack Flaherty](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)–
   $5.1MM
 * [Giovanny Gallegos](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallegi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)–
   $2.8MM
 * [Jordan Hicks](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hicksjo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)–
   $1.0MM
 * [Dakota Hudson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)–
   $1.7MM
 * [Tyler O’Neill](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oneilty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)–
   $3.5MM
 * [Alex Reyes](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=reyesal02,reyes-001ale&search=Alex+Reyes&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)–
   $3.3MM

Justin Miller would have been on the list, but he was outrighted and elected free
agency.

Of the list, I see all of these guys getting tendered contracts.

The Cardinals could also non-tender a few players under team control, including:
[Austin Dean](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=deanau01,dean--001aus&search=Austin+Dean&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Max Moroff](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morofma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Johan Quezada](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quezajo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Angel Rondon](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rondoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Jose Rondon](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rondojo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Brandon Waddell](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/waddebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[T.J. Zeuch](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zeuchtj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-).
Dean is expendable because of the emergence of [Lars Nootbaar](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nootbla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-).
Moroff and J. Rondon are repetitive; both are expendable if a shortstop is signed
and Edman/Sosa are your utility players. Quezada, A. Rondon, Waddell, and Zeuch 
could all be replaced by free agents or younger players.

**Dec 6-9: Winter MeetingIf the CBA is signed, this is where deals get made. That’s
a big if though.

**Dec 8: Rule V DraftThis should be postponed if the CBA is not completed. It’s 
hard to project what would happen if they do draft, since we don’t know what the
40-man will look like in a month.

That said, the Cardinals will gain a guy or 2 in the minor league portion and could
loos a few guys, especially pitchers in the upper minors. They are low risk to stick
with another club for a season, so Jones, Parsons, and Warner could be taken if 
not protected.

**Dec 15: Ending of international signing period**

**Jan 14: Deadline for exchanging figure between teams and arbitration eligible 
players; players can still negotiate and sign after this dateI expect that the Cardinals
will sign a majority of their arbitration eligible players; the hold out will be
Flaherty. He’s been vocal about not liking the system and will go to arbitration
every year.

**Jan 15: Start of 2021-2022 international signing period (thru Dec 15)More on this
when it gets closer.

**Feb 26: First Spring Training gamesHopefully.

**Mar 31: Opening DayAgain, hopefully.

As we approach these dates, I’ll have more write ups on the events and what can 
be expected for each one.

_Check out the [Off-Season Salary Matrix](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021/10/2021-22-cardinal-off-season-salary-matrix/)._

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