# Historical Trends of the Wild Card Game

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/historical-trends-of-the-wild-card-game/
- Published: 2021-10-06T15:49:12-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

The Cardinals season could come to an end tonight if they can’t knock off the mighty
Dodgers. While the Dodgers have the advantage of the better team, record, run differential,
and home field, the Cardinals have something on their side: history.

I could write up their [head to head stats](https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/tale-of-the-tape-cardinals-vs-dodgers/article_b5de4f6f-e76c-56aa-8117-ad962c7e9979.html),
[matchups](https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-dodgers-nl-wild-card-game-position-breakdown),
etc; let’s look at the Wild Card game in general.

There have been 8 National League Wild Card games (starting in 2012 and excluding
the expanded playoffs in 2020). The visiting team has won 5, with the home team 
taking the other 3. The visiting team has scored 36 runs in those games, while the
home team has scored 25, good for a run differential of +11 for the visitors. When
you apply that to the Pythagorean Record formula, the visiting team has a winning
percentage of .661.

When you expand to include the 9 AL Wild Card games ([including yesterday’s Red Sox beating the Yankees](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/yankees-vs-red-sox/2021/10/05/660938#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=660938)),
the changes decrease slightly. All visiting teams have won 9 games while the home
team has won 8. The visitors have scored 71 runs to the home team’s 62. The +9 run
differential is good for a .562 winning percentage.

The Cardinals also have the advantage of having played in a Wild Card game. The 
Cardinals won their lone game back in 2012 (the infamous [Infield Fly game](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1360712-cardinals-vs-braves-infield-fly-rule-protest-denied-as-umpires-get-call-right)
against the Braves) 6-3. The Dodgers haven’t played in a 1-game playoff, although
their playoff experience probably trumps this fact.

All of these are small sample sizes though, so we can’t hold the 66%/56% chance 
of winning and experience in this situation as completely reliable. But anything
can happen in a 1-game series.

_Check out the [Cardinals roster here](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021/10/cardinals-announce-wild-card-game-roster/)._

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