Cardinal Wild Card Day 2

With the announcement that Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger were not available for the Padres, the Cardinals were able to catch a break and take advantage of Chris Paddack in Game 1 of the series. The issue I saw was the Cardinals offense goes in spurts; what happens the next day after the team scores 7 runs?

The Cardinals had 16 games in 2020 where they scored 6 runs or more; they were 16-0 in those games. They averaged 8.06 runs in those games while allowing an average 2.75 runs. Those are solid numbers.

In the day that follows, the Cardinals are 6-10. I kind of expected that; the team always seemed to struggle after a strong offensive performance. What did surprise me was the average runs they scored the next day; the Cardinals averaged 5.00 runs the following day. That number was skewed by 2 games (they scored 16 on 9/1 and 12 on 9/9); if you take out those 2 games, they are 4-10 with 3.71 runs scored.

The team was only shut out once after scoring more than six. They were limited to one run twice, two runs twice, and three runs 3 times. These numbers are more promising than I expected.

Today’s matchup is Adam Wainwright (5-3, 3.15 ERA) and Zach Davies (7-4, 273 ERA).

Davies is 2-3 against the Cardinals with a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 10 games. The Cardinals have hit .290/.329/.460 against him with a tOPS+ of 117. He’s 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at Petco Park.

Wainwright is 7-4 against the Padres with a 2.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 15 games. The Padres have hit .240/.286/.349 against him with a tOPS+ of 86. He’s 1-3 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at Petco Park.

One thing that has to change it the usage of Harrison Bader; after going 0-5 with 5 strikeouts, the Cardinals have to go with a different option at centerfield. I’d move Dylan Carlson to center, start Tommy Edman at left, and use Matt Carpenter at third. If you get a lead, you can shift everyone back and have Bader back in center for defensive purposes. The other option would be to start Austin Dean in left with Carlson in center; Dean played well in the little playing time he saw, but I’m hesitant to start someone so unproven in a critical game.

My original prediction of the Padres in 3 is still on the table, but the odds of it have decreased by quite a bit. At this point, I say the series is 50/50 (even with the Cards up a game).