# Cardinal Wild Card Day 2

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/cardinal-wild-card-day-2/
- Published: 2020-10-01T13:08:41-05:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

With the announcement that [Dinelson Lamet](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lametdi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
and [Mike Clevinger](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clevimi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
[were not available for the Padres](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/mike-clevinger-dinelson-lamet-padres-wild-card-roster.html),
the Cardinals were able to catch a break and take advantage of [Chris Paddack](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paddach01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
in Game 1 of the series. The issue I saw was the Cardinals offense goes in spurts;
what happens the next day after the team scores 7 runs?

The Cardinals had 16 games in 2020 where they scored 6 runs or more; they were 16-
0 in those games. They averaged 8.06 runs in those games while allowing an average
2.75 runs. Those are solid numbers.

In the day that follows, the Cardinals are 6-10. I kind of expected that; the team
always seemed to struggle after a strong offensive performance. What did surprise
me was the average runs they scored the next day; the Cardinals averaged 5.00 runs
the following day. That number was skewed by 2 games (they scored 16 on 9/1 and 
12 on 9/9); if you take out those 2 games, they are 4-10 with 3.71 runs scored.

The team was only shut out once after scoring more than six. They were limited to
one run twice, two runs twice, and three runs 3 times. These numbers are more promising
than I expected.

Today’s matchup is [Adam Wainwright](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)(
5-3, 3.15 ERA) and [Zach Davies](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davieza02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)(
7-4, 273 ERA).

Davies is 2-3 against the Cardinals with a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 10 games. The
Cardinals have hit .290/.329/.460 against him with a tOPS+ of 117. He’s 6-2 with
a 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at Petco Park.

Wainwright is 7-4 against the Padres with a 2.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 15 games. 
The Padres have hit .240/.286/.349 against him with a tOPS+ of 86. He’s 1-3 with
a 3.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at Petco Park.

One thing that has to change it the usage of [Harrison Bader](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baderha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-);
after going 0-5 with **5 strikeouts**, the Cardinals have to go with a different
option at centerfield. I’d move [Dylan Carlson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carlsdy01,carlso001dyl&search=Dylan+Carlson&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
to center, start [Tommy Edman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/edmanto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
at left, and use [Matt Carpenter](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carpema01,carpen003mat&search=Matt+Carpenter&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
at third. If you get a lead, you can shift everyone back and have Bader back in 
center for defensive purposes. The other option would be to start [Austin Dean](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=deanau01,dean--001aus&search=Austin+Dean&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
in left with Carlson in center; Dean played well in the little playing time he saw,
but I’m hesitant to start someone so unproven in a critical game.

My original prediction of the Padres in 3 is still on the table, but the odds of
it have decreased by quite a bit. At this point, I say the series is 50/50 (even
with the Cards up a game).

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