# Adjusting the Lineup to Win - Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/ - Published: 2017-01-13T10:03:52-06:00 - Author: Eugene Tierney Every year when I get my [Bill James](http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?results=jamesbi02,jamesbi01&search=Bill+James&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) Handbook, one of the first things I look at is the Manager Records. I enjoy seeing things like pitcher usage, tactics, and lineups used. As a Cardinal fan, we see more lineups a season than most other fanbases. In fact, [Mike Matheny](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-) led the National League this past season with 146 different lineups, the most he’s used in one season. I also noted that it was his lowest win total and the only year he missed the playoffs. Was this coincidence? My curiosity was piqued. I pulled out a lot of my old handbooks to find out. I started by looking at the last 10 years of MLB to see what the year by year standards showed. I placed all of the data in a scattergraph, using lineups for the X axis and wins for the Y axis. Looking at it year by year, there was no real trend to the data. Here was 2016: [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/2016-no-trend.png?ssl=1) But when you add a [trend line](https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/scatter-xy-plots.html), it shows you the correlation in the data. For 2016, the trend line shows a negative correlation; basically, the more MLB managers tinker with the lineup, the lower the amount of wins. Here is the data again, but with the trend line: [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/2016.png?ssl=1) Looking at the previous seasons, the trend is pretty much the same; the data is scattered, but the trend lines are showing negative correlation. When all of the data is presented together, you get almost the same correlation: [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Total-Team.png?ssl=1) Seeing almost the same results, I got to wondering about individual managers; does this trend mean all managers have a lower chance of winning the more they change their lineups? I started with Matheny. In his five seasons, he’s used 122, 89, 199, 135, and 146 different lineups with 88, 97, 90, 100, and 86 wins. When plotted, they show a negative correlations: [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Matheny.png?ssl=1) 5 seasons is too small of a sample size though. I expanded the research to 14 other managers who have had longer careers and varying degrees of success. I went with [Dusty Baker](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerdu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Bruce Bochy](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bochybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Bobby Cox](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/coxbo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Terry Francona](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francte01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Joe Girardi](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/girarjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Clint Hurdle](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hurdlcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), Tony LaRussa, [Jim Leyland](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leylaji99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Joe Maddon](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddojo99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Charlie Manuel](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manuech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Mike Scioscia](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sciosmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Buck Showalter](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/showabu99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), [Joe Torre](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/torrejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-), and [Ned Yost](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yostne01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-); all of these guys have been to the playoffs, but have also had some bad seasons. They all also have managed multiple teams, outside of Scioscia. The only restriction I used was they had to have managed a minimum of 140 games in seasons considered; some of them managed less than 100 games due to being hired/fired mid-season and those seasons would pull the data down. I also only used data from 1995 and on; finding lineup usage data before that is a challenge for a blogging hobbiest. Here is the graph with all 15 managers: [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Total-manager.png?ssl=1) Francona and Leyland are the only managers to go against the trend; both have positive correlation between lineups and wins. I’d also say Charlie Manuel goes against the trend as his trend line is almost netrual; Scioscia is close to being neutral too. [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Francona.png?ssl=1) [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Leyland.png?ssl=1) [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Manuel.png?ssl=1) [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Scioscia.png?ssl=1) Other things I’ve noticed: * LaRussa is an interesting case. He had no seasons with double digits lineups used; in fact, his lowest total was 117. He aveaged 133 lineups a season and topped out at 153 (or a different lineup in 94% games managed). He also had 3 time where he used the same amount of lineups in back to back seasons: 120 in 1995 and 1996, 146 in 1997 and 1998, and 117 in 2001 and 2002. [](https://i0.wp.com/www.nyrdcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/LaRussa.png?ssl=1) * Baker’s highest win season just happened to coincide with his lowest lineup usage– 2000 with the Giants. * Cox and Manuel might be the last of the old guard managers; they averaged the lowest amount of lineups at 94. In fact, they were the only managers to have double digit averages. I call them “old guard” because they always seemed to follow the old unwritten rules of the game and less inclined to sabermetrics. * LaRussa was the highest averaged at 133. Maddon was second at 131. My conclusion on this is there is an impact on lineup usage versus wins, but I believe it’s more about the reason for the different lineups. It’s quite possible that the increase in lineup useage is due to injury; a replacement player will impact the probability that a team will win. If I can get the data, I’ll write about lineup useage vs DL days per team to see if there’s correlation there. I do believe that some of it is just tinkering. As a Cardinal fan, it’s obvious that LaRussa and Matheny adjusted the lineup daily; they both would play the matchups rather than setting a status quo in their batting order. It can be frustrating as fans, especially when their changes don’t bring a win. ### Share this: * [ Facebook ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=facebook) * [ X ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=x) * [ Email ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Adjusting%20the%20Lineup%20to%20Win&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nyrdcast.com%2Fadjusting-the-lineup-to-win%2F&share=email) * [ LinkedIn ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=linkedin) * [ Mastodon ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=mastodon) * [ Nextdoor ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=nextdoor) * [ Pinterest ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=pinterest) * [ Reddit ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=reddit) * [ Tumblr ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/?share=tumblr) ### Like this: Like Loading… ### _Related_ ## Comments ### By: Birk - Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/#comment-831 - Published: 2017-01-15T06:56:45-06:00 It could just be that they are changing the lineup because they aren’t winning. ### By: Eugene Tierney - Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/adjusting-the-lineup-to-win/#comment-832 - Published: 2017-01-15T07:37:28-06:00 That’s quite possible as well.