Monday Morning GM: Jordan Hicks, Opener?

Taking 4 out of 6 is a good week, especially early on in the season; unfortunately there will be a segment of fans upset that they didn’t sweep the Marlins and Reds, 2 teams that are currently under .500. People need to remember that a team really needs to just win half of their road games (along with 2 out of 3 at home) to realistically make the playoffs. The Cardinals are currently 6-4 (.600) on the road and 3-1 (.750) at home.

The team started out taking 2 of 3 against the Marlins; they took the first 2 5-1 and 2-0 before dropping game 3 5-0. Very much the same against the Reds, winning the first 2 4-2 and 5-0 before losing game 3 4-1.

Nolan Arenado continues to lead the team; he’s sitting at .364/.426/.727 with 5 homers. In 14 games, he’s got a WAR of 1.5 already. New manager Oliver Marmol hasn’t been shy about putting the best lineup on the field each night; with Dylan Carlson struggling, he’s been moved down the lineup with Tommy Edman and his .400 OBP moving to leadoff. I think they move back to the early season lineup once Carlson gets going; he’s got that speed/power combo that managers like. Edman is also getting on base at a way higher clip this season then in the past (career .324 including the small sample of this year); if he slips down to .308 like last year, someone else needs to lead off.

The pitching has been hit or miss. While Jordan Hicks only gave up a run in his first start, he also walked 2 and allowed 2 hits in 3 innings. If he’s starting, you need to at least get through the lineup twice. If he’s an opener, call him that so everyone has the proper expectations (more on that later). Adam Wainwright took the second “L” last week and allowed the Reds to get a couple of quick runs. He settled down, but the damage was done and the offense didn’t help him out.

The bullpen has been generally good. The sore sports are Drew VerHagen (who ended up being placed on the DL), Aaron Brooks, and Genesis Cabrera. If you look at Cabrera’s basic stats, his 3.38 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2 hits, and 2 runs are fine on the surface; it’s when you see his 7.96 FIP, 13.6% BB rate, and 3.38 HR/9, you’ll see he’s been pretty lucky he’s only given up the 2.

Standings
The division is starting to settle; the Cardinals and Brewers are expected at the top. The Pirates and Cubs are the next tier, but I would think they’d be switched in the end. The Reds should be the cellar dwellers all season.

Pythagorean Record
This team is pretty interesting; they are . The team has scored 60 while allowing 41, good for a differential of +19, up 5 from last week; that would give them an expected record of 9-5. They are on pace for a 104-58 record, down from last week’s 109-53; this continues to move closer to the 90 wins I’ve been projecting.

Cardinal News
The Cardinals have cracked the MLB Power Ranking Top 5, sitting at 5 behind the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mets, and Giants. They have been playing well, so it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. I’m curious to see where they end up.

As mentioned above, VerHagen was placed on the IL for a right hip inpingement; he was replaced on the roster by Packy Naughton. Naughton represents the 3rd lefty in the bullpen, which will reduce in size in the next few weeks.

Rumor Mill
MLB.com Cardinal Beat Writer John Denton believes that Nolan Gorman will be up sooner then later, according to his mailing list article released today. With his hot streak to start the season, Gorman has caught the eye of the Cardinal skipper. I think it won’t be until at least June that we see Gorman; they’ll want to delay his service clock as much as possible while also seeing if players like Corey Dickerson, Paul DeJong, and Lars Nootbaar (who was demoted while writing this) can get their issues fixed.

I also think they will wait to have a place in the field for him; platooning with Albert Pujols at DH will not help Gorman succeed at the MLB level. The ideal solution would be for Gorman to play second 4-5 games per week with the rest at DH; Edman will see time at second and short; Edmundo Sosa will also see time at short. When Gorman isn’t DHing against right handed pitching, you’ll be able to rotate in other players and give them a rest in the field (Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, the outfielders). This gives the team the best option to win while also helping Gorman to improve.

The System
Here’s a quick look at how the minor league system is doing.

• Memphis Redbirds: 6-6
  • The best team in the system, and they are only .500 right now.
  • Each games is getting better for Matthew Liberatore, which should be expected. Last week, he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball. He struck out 9 while only allowing 2 baserunners on 2 hits. His strikeout to walk ratio for the season is 27:3, which is amazing. We’ll see him integrated into the bullpen before the year is over.
  • Ivan Herrera has gotten off to a slow start; the heir apparent to Yadier Molina has only hit .212 to start the season. He’s playing almost every other day, so the team is limiting his action this season.
• Springfield Cardinals: 6-9
  • Jordan Walker continues to hit; he got 6 more last week in 5 games. His power is still not showing up; all 6 hits were singles and his slugging is sitting at .392. His only extra base hit for the season was a homer on April 10.
• Peoria Chiefs: 7-8
  • Gordon Graceffo might be on the fast track for Springfield; he’s sporting a 0.56 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in his first 3 starts, along with 21 strikeouts and a single walk. He’s also getting groundballs; he’s got a GO/AO ratio of 0.63.
  • Michael McGreevy‘s scoreless inning streak is over; he gave up a run in his last start. He’s sitting with an ERA of 0.51 and a WHIP of 0.57 after 3 starts. Unfortunately, his team hasn’t gotten him a win yet.
• Palm Beach Cardinals: 6-9

Former Cardinals
Quick hits on players who have been in the Cardinals system.

• Matt Adams (1B, Free Agent) has signed with the Kansas City Monarchs of the American Association, an independent league. Adams last saw MLB action in 2021 with the Rockies. He’s hoping to latch back on with an affiliated team.
• Daniel Castano (LHP, Marlins) was called up from Triple A. Castano, a player in the Marcell Ozuna trade, is back for his second stint on the active roster this season.
• Jose Godoy (C, Twins) had his contract purchased on Saturday and was added to the active roster. Godoy joined the Twins via waiver claim during spring training, but was designated for assignment at the beginning of the season. He’s back with the team because Gary Sanchez is day to day with an injury.
• Greg Holland (RHP, Rangers) was designated for assignment by the Rangers; he elected free agency instead of taking a minor league assignment. He gave up 5 runs in 4.2 innings in Texas this season.
• Stephen Piscotty (OF, Athletics) was reinstated from the Covid IL; he missed about 8 days with the virus.
• Luke Voit (1B, Padres) was placed on the IL over the weekend for a bicep tendon injury in his right arm. This comes days after Voit was accused of a dirty slide into home that put Reds’ catcher Tyler Stephenson on the concussion IL. Interestingly enough, former Cardinal Tommy Pham (OF, Reds) offered to fight Voit at a gym in an effort to stand up for his catcher.

The Jordan Hicks Dilemma
I think the Cardinals botched the 5th starter announcement this year. I know Hicks went into the season as a possibility to be a starter, but they didn’t try to extend him out during spring training; he pitched 3 times and the longest outing was 1.1 innings and he went a total of 3 innings.

As of right now, he’s not the 5th starter, but more of the Rays style of opener. Which is perfectly fine; stats have shown that the opener has worked for them. Use Hicks as an opener to go through the line up once; that’s probably 3-4 innings on a good day. Every day he pitches, you line up Jake Woodford to come in after him for another time through the lineup at minimum; he’s more of a traditional starter and has pitched well in the past. Using this tandem starter method, you should get 6-8 innings each time they “start” and it’ll possibly be a good way to rest the bullpen.

Hicks as an opener will also preserve his arm more then as a traditional starter or a bullpen pitcher; he’ll throw fewer innings while also not going all on in velocity. It’s really the best of both worlds. Then if this season is successful and healthy, you can look at increasing his workload next season. This could also be a negotiation tactic going forward; approach him about an extension with this plan in place, and he might be more willing to forgo a year or 2 of free agency to be fully stretched out as a starter once he hits the market.