The NL Central All “Gone” Team
I was listening to Ben Fred Friday on Scoops with Danny Mac when Ben Frederickson said that you could make a competitive team with players that have left the NL Central this winter. It got me thinking, how would this team compare to the 2020 Cardinals? So I’ve put together a 25-man roster of NL Central Free Agents (both that have signed outside of the division or have not re-signed yet) and players traded away from the division; listed with their fWAR. I’ve also taken the fWAR of the Cardinals to see which is higher.
To figure the All Gone Team, I took the best fWAR at each position. To figure the Cardinals, I looked at total appearances and typical position.
| Pos | All Gone Team | fWAR | Cardinals | fWAR |
| C | Curt Casali | 0.7 | Yadier Molina | 0.5 |
| 1B | Ryan Braun | 0.1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 2.1 |
| 2B | Kolten Wong | 1.3 | Kolten Wong | 1.3 |
| 3B | Jedd Gyorko | 0.7 | Tommy Edman | 0.8 |
| SS | Freddy Galvis | 0.5 | Paul DeJong | 0.6 |
| LF | Kyle Schwarber | 0.4 | Tyler O’Neill | 0.5 |
| CF | Cameron Maybin | 0.2 | Harrison Bader | 1.0 |
| RF | Steven Souza Jr. | 0.1 | Dexter Fowler | 0.0 |
| DH | Brad Miller | 0.8 | Brad Miller | 0.8 |
| B | Yadier Molina | 0.5 | Matt Wieters | 0.0 |
| B | Jason Kipnis | 0.6 | Matt Carpenter | 0.3 |
| B | Jace Peterson | 0.1 | Dylan Carlson | 0.2 |
| B | Billy Hamilton | 0.1 | Lane Thomas | -0.3 |
| SP | Trevor Bauer | 2.5 | Jack Flaherty | 0.6 |
| SP | Yu Darvish | 3.0 | Adam Wainwright | 1.0 |
| SP | Adam Wainwright | 1.0 | Kwang Hyun Kim | 0.6 |
| SP | Joe Musgrove | 1.0 | Dakota Hudson | 0.4 |
| SP | Brett Anderson | 0.6 | Daniel Poncedeleon | 0.0 |
| CL | Raisel Iglesias | 1.1 | Giovanny Gallegos | 0.6 |
| RP | Archie Bradley | 0.6 | Alex Reyes | 0.5 |
| RP | Ryan Tepera | 0.3 | John Gant | 0.5 |
| RP | Jeremy Jeffress | 0.2 | Austin Gomber | 0.5 |
| RP | Tyler Thornburg | 0.2 | Andrew Miller | 0.3 |
| RP | Alex Claudio | 0.1 | Tyler Webb | 0.3 |
| RP | John Brebbia | 0.0 | Genesis Cabrera | -0.1 |
| Totals | 15.6 | 13.0 |
I used Brebbia for the All Gone Team because he’s better than many of the options out there. To think, a good player like Josh Bell wasn’t included because he had a bad year; even if you added him, the All Gone Team would have been at 15.1 (switch Bell at -0.4 for Hamilton).
This exercise shows 2 things. First, the 2020 Cardinals were just an average team. A replacement level team typically would have a .294 winning percentage, good for 17.64 wins in 2020. Add the Cardinals 13.0, and you have 30.64 wins; the 2020 Cardinals had 30 wins. This league average team would have 33.24 wins; that would put them just a win below the Cubs for the NL Central crown.
Secondly, this shows how bad the pandemic has hit the NL Central. Outside of Chicago, the other 4 teams are in smaller markets and losing in stadium revenue has severely hurt the teams. Even the Cubs are shedding payroll. Here are some numbers based off 2019 revenues (in millions), but I haven’t been able to verify them and it’s only for 24 teams:
When you remove ticket revenue from the Cardinals, they are in the hole by $41M. Now, this doesn’t include things like merchandise or revenue from Ballpark Village, so the Cardinals are doing better than it appears. They did take a significant hit in 2020 if these numbers are accurate. Milwaukee would also be in the red if these numbers are correct, with Cincinnati just squeaking positive.
I hate to say it, but these spending trends for the Central could continue, even if limited attendance is allowed this season. It could be 2022 or 2023 before these team truly recover financially. And that will lead to frustrations for the fanbases; as teams like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, and Padres get better, the Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers will continue to try to squeak by.
