# 2021 Cardinal Projections: Harrison Bader

- Link: https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021-cardinal-projections-harrison-bader/
- Published: 2021-02-24T17:40:54-06:00
- Author: Eugene Tierney

Like I’ve done for the last few years, I’m working through my Cardinals projections
for the upcoming season. The process this year is trickier; normally I take a 3 
year average of the players stats for a portion of the projections, but this past
season saw the 60 game season, so there was a little extra math.

My projections take into account the already mentioned 3 year average and similar
players. On [Baseball Reference](https://www.baseball-reference.com/), they list
comparable players by career and by age; I factor in what those players did at the
same age as the player I’m projecting. Again, if the comp was from 2020, I had to
do a little math to equal it out to a 162 game season.

Next up is most polarizing player on the Cardinals: [Harrison Bader](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baderha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-).

|  | **G** | **AB** | **R** | **H** | **2B** | **3B** | **HR** | **RBI** | **SB/ATT** | **K** | **BB** | **Avg/OBP/SLG** | **ISO** | **WAR** | 
| 3 Yr  | 134 | 337 | 57 | 79 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 11/14 | 117 | 37 | .233/.328/.409 | .176 | 2.8 | 
| Comps | 90 | 249 | 33 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 5/7 | 59 | 25 | .254/.324/.420 | .165 | 0.9 | 
| Projection | 112 | 293 | 45 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 8/11 | 88 | 31 | .242/.327/.416 | .174 | 1.8 |

Comps: [Jim Hickman](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=hickmji02,hickmji01&search=Jim+Hickman&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Roger Repoz](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/repozro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Laynce Nix](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nixla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Carl Everett](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/evereca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Tony Tarasco](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tarasto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Jose Bautista](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=bautijo02,bautijo01&search=Jose+Bautista&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Michael A. Taylor](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taylomi02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Peter Bourjos](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bourjpe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Vince DiMaggio](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dimagvi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Greg Norton](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nortogr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Mikie Mahtook](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mahtomi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Bill Renna](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rennabi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Pete Whisenant](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whisepe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)*,
[Jim Dyck](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dyckji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)*,
[Ken Hunt](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=huntke01,huntke02&search=Ken+Hunt&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Mark Smith](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=smithma03,smithma02,smith-027mar&search=Mark+Smith&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Ken Wood](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-),
[Justin Maxwell](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maxweju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)*.

_* Did not play in age 27 season._

You’ll notice that the comps don’t have the playing time; it’s because most of his
comparable players moved to more of a part time role by this point of their careers.
That could very well happen this season. Unfortunately, Bader was the third best
offensive player on the Cardinals in 2020; that shouldn’t be the case in 2021.

Just a note for Cardinal fans: the Bourjos age 27 season was his season with the
Cardinals. That has to instill a lot of faith.

Baders defense is what will keep him on the team; once he’s no longer a starter,
he’ll be the 4th outfielder/defensive replacement.

How do his numbers compare to the [other projections?](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/harrison-bader/18030/stats?position=OF)

|  | **G** | **PA** | **HR** | **R** | **RBI** | **Avg** | **OBP** | **SLG** | **BABIP** | **ISO** | **WAR** | 
| Nyrdcast | 112 | 334 | 10 | 71 | 34 | .242 | .327 | .416 | .316 | .174 | 1.8 | 
| THE BAT X | 133 | 599 | 21 | 77 | 66 | .233 | .317 | .412 | .303 | .179 |  | 
| THE BAT | 133 | 600 | 21 | 76 | 64 | .231 | .316 | .405 | .302 | .174 |  | 
| ATC | 138 | 490 | 16 | 67 | 50 | .230 | .323 | .405 | .306 | .176 |  | 
| FGDC | 131 | 567 | 19 | 71 | 62 | .230 | .317 | .403 | .309 | .173 | 1.9 | 
| Steamer | 129 | 507 | 17 | 56 | 58 | .232 | .320 | .402 | .306 | .170 | 1.8 | 
| ZiPS | 138 | 440 | 15 | 61 | 46 | .228 | .314 | .404 | .312 | .176 | 1.8 |

These other systems believe he’ll get more playing time then my system does; mine
shows better overall numbers considering the playing time difference. The other 
big difference is homers and RBIs; I don’t see him hitting a ton of balls out and
I don’t think he’ll have a lot of RBI opportunities. That said, I show a higher 
slugging because my system sees more doubles and triples proportionally then the
other systems.

I think Bader starts the season in center, but he’ll be bumped after struggling 
out of the gate. I think we’ll see more [Dylan Carlson](https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=carlsdy01,carlso001dyl&search=Dylan+Carlson&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
and/or [Lane Thomas](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomala02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-)
in center this season.

Other projections:
[Nolan Arenado](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021/02/2021-cardinal-projections-nolan-arenado/)
[Paul Goldschmidt](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021/02/2021-cardinal-projections-paul-goldschmidt/)
[Yadier Molina](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021/02/2021-cardinal-projections-yadier-molina/)

_Don’t forget to check the [Cardinal Salary Matrix](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2020/10/the-2020-cardinals-off-season-salary-matrix/)
and the [Cardinal Prospect Tracker ](https://www.nyrdcast.com/2021/01/2021-st-louis-cardinals-prospect-tracker/)
for updates._

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