The Cardinals Pitched to Yelich and No One Got Hurt

Coming into this last series, all Cardinal fans was the team to pitch around Christian Yelich. That’s understandable; the guy crushed us in the first 2 series, going 12 for 24 with 9 R, 9 HR, and 19 RBIs. Would walking him be the right thing to do though?

The first factor to consider is location. Those first 7 games were in Milwaukee, where Yelich has the advantage. He’s a .328/.423/.691 hitter with 35 homers (which is the most at any stadium he’s played in, beating Miami where he played 3 times as many games). Compare that to Busch Stadium: .278/.384/.528 with 4 homers. Busch is more of pitchers park than Miller Park is, plus he only comes to town for about 10 games a season. Miller Park is also a dome, so weather conditions are perfect (which should also help the Cardinals); Yelich doesn’t have the experience playing in 50 degree, rainy days that most of the Cardinals have experienced.

The second factor is the time of year; the more the Cardinals pitchers start, the more they are getting warmed up. Miles Mikolas, who faced the Brewers on Opening Day, had a rough start but has gradually gotten better with each following start (like last year).

Also, you don’t want to set a tone with an opposing player at this point of the season; Yelich might have beaten you before, but you have to go after him during the regular season. If this were a playoff series, I could see walking him; remember David Ortiz in 2013? The Cardinals should have started walking him early in the series.

The other factor to remember is Mike Schildt needs to show confidence in his team; if he’s walking a hot hitter, that does not show confidence in his pitchers. If he doesn’t show confidence in his pitchers in April, he’s going to lose the team. Losing the team cost Mike Matheny his job over the last few years (along with other factors, like he wasn’t a good manager).

Pitching to Yelich paid off; he went 0 for 7 with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts. Of the 2 walks, 1 was intentional; first base was open in the 3rd inning of game 2 and there were 2 outs…the team was looking for a force out at any base and Daniel Poncedeleon got Yasmani Grandal to strikeout to end the inning. In this instance, issuing the walk only increased the Brewer’s Win Probability Added by .012, a marginal amount for the Cardinals since there were already 2 outs and only a man on second and it was during the 3rd inning.

After going 2-5 in the first two series against the Brewer’s, the sweep at home was huge and put them at .500 against, probably, their in division rival (depending on how the Cubs play). It’s huge for the Cardinals, who started the 2019 season at +220 odds to win the Central and +1600 to win the World Series according to My Top Sportsbooks. Since coming off a four-game sweep of the mighty Dodgers, the Cardinals have shrugged off a slow start and now sit tied atop the Central at 15-9. That has seen the Cards’ odds improve. They are now +175 to win the Central and +1500 to win the World Series.