The Future of Michael Wacha
This season, everyone has been watching what the Cardinals were going to do with Adam Wainwright‘s position in the rotation. After a couple of decent starts, everyone should be shifting their focus to Michael Wacha.
Wacha, who is scheduled to start pitching in minutes, has shown in the past that he struggles after the first time through the lineup. This year, in a small sample size, has been a little different.
Prior to this season, he’s kept opposing hitters between .196 and .259 the first time through the lineup. Then it typically jumps to .227 and .307; the third time through the lineup sees averages go between .229 and 331. It’s also pretty much increased each season he’s pitched.
In 2018, he’s struggled the first time through the lineup. The .385 BAA is the highest at any point through the lineup; it would actually take away from his usefulness in the bullpen and he’s been more effective the second time through.
It’s pretty much the same with other metrics. Here’s BABIP against:
Here’s OPS:
Here’s tOPS+:
tOPS+ is a split showing a players OPS versus the league. An average tOPS+ is 100; above 100 favors hitters and below favors pitchers.
Small sample size aside, you can assume that Wacha would be much better in the bullpen, where he’d only go through a lineup once.
The question then comes down to 2 things:
1. How does the stress reaction in his shoulder react to pitching in back to back days? Unfortunately, there aren’t historical examples out of the bullpen to show us previous reactions. Brandon McCarthy is the only other known player to have the issue and he’s spent his career in the rotation for his teams. There could be others, but they haven’t been as prominent as Wacha and McCarthy.
You’d have to assume it’d be no worse than the rotation. While he would be pitching more frequently, he’s be throwing less pitches and innings per appearance.
A benefit of the bullpen could be an increase in velocity. Many failed starters who move to the bullpen see an increase in velocity when they know they only have to pitch an inning or 2. Wacha averaged 95.6 MPH per StatCast in 2017 on his 4 seam fastball; he cold see as much as a 2 MPH average increase on the pitch (based off typical increases from moving from the rotation to the bullpen).
2. Is 2018 an abberation? In the past, Wacha has been effective the first time through the rotation. This season has been something different. He’s allowing more contact and seeing more balls in play drop for hits. He’s also seen an average 2 MPH drop in his 4-seam fastball, which has lost his value (wFB of -2.5, which is down from 5.5 in 2017). In fact, all of his pitches outside of his changeup are worht negative pitch value this season. Like the 4-seam, his cutter, changeup, and curve are all slwoer than last year.
Part of the issue is the swing rates against his pitches. Players are swing less at outside the zone pitches by 8.3%; zone swings are down by 5.4%. The outside zone hits are up 8.1%. Basically, hitters are getting the outside zone pitches for more hits. His swinging strike percentage is also down 2.0%.
Essentially, his pitches are slower and not fooling as many hitters as in the past.
I’m chalking Wacha’s early seasons struggles to small sample size and early seaosn bad weather.
I wrote last season that Wacha could be that Andrew Miller, Fireman type reliever; I still believe that is the case. He could very easily go 2 innings at crucial parts of ball games, which saves the closer for their traditional role.
